Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Weekend wagers: Seven bets to make, including on UFC 273, Masters

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Steve Marcus

Mackenzie Dern, left, and Ashley Yoder celebrate at the end of their three-round strawweight bout during UFC 222 at T-Mobile Arena Saturday, March 3, 2018.

The NCAA Tournament disappointingly departs, but a big time in the sports calendar drives on.

I wish we could hang onto college basketball longer considering how well it went for Talking Points this year. Kansas’ 72-69 National Championship game victory over North Carolina as 4.5-point favorites Monday night brought the blog’s record picking every tournament game to 36-29 including 13-7 on plays.

Things have been much rougher in the Weekend Wagers column since it was revived following football season. The bottom line is solidly in the red on the year, right now, but after a three-week break to focus on the tournament, the column is ready to make a full-fledged comeback.

Read below for this weekend’s bets on five different sports — including three on tonight’s UFC pay-per-view card. Records are attached for each individual sport with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

PGA Tour (0-2, -$257.50): Scottie Scheffler +110 to win Masters (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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A small crowd watches Scottie Scheffler hit from the sand on the eighth hole, during the first round of The Players Championship golf tournament Thursday, March 12, 2020, in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

$500 to win $550

I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw this price. How is there a plus-price next to a golfer holding a five-stroke lead who’s won three of his last five starts? I would understand if it was some run-of-the-mill golfer, but this is the current No. 1 ranked player in the world we’re talking about. Yes, there’s a long way to go but it’s been nearly 100 years — and only once in Masters history — that someone has blown this large of a 36-hole lead. I make Scheffler -150 right now, so +110 represents a massive edge. And a massive edge means a massive wager — at least relative to the usual bet-sizing in the column.  

MLB (0-0, $0): San Diego Padres -153 vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Wynn)

$306 to win $200

Yes, the Padres blew their season-opener against the Diamondbacks in the bottom of the ninth inning. Get your laughs in now because San Diego is going to be a lot better going forward. This was one of the most hyped teams in baseball going into last season, and just one non-playoff year and an injury to star Fernando Tatis Jr. seems to have sunk the Padres’ perception and left them undervalued. This is a good spot for them to start to show off how dangerous they are with a plus pitching matchup via Joe Musgrove squaring off against the Diamondbacks’ Zach Davies. Recently acquired closer Taylor Rogers should also be ready after shipping over from Minnesota to help shore up the already-present bullpen issues.

NHL (1-2, -$230): New York Islanders +140 at St. Louis Blues (Wynn)

$150 to win $210

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Vegas Golden Knights center Jonathan Marchessault (81) celebrates after scoring the game-winning goal against St. Louis Blues goaltender Jordan Binnington (50) during overtime of an NHL hockey game Friday, May 7, 2021, in Las Vegas.

The Blues are playing a back-to-back with Ville Husso in net Friday night at Minnesota, which leaves Jordan Binnington to start against New York. Husso has been significantly better than Binnington all season. The Blues are still better than the Islanders with Binnington, but with this schedule spot and their playoff spot already all but locked up, this price is about 20 cents too high. The Islanders are also on a back-to-back and have been disappointing this season, but they’ve played better recently and are more than capable of challenging the Blues.

UFC (4-4, $165): Mark Madsen +115 vs. Vinc Pichel at UFC 273 (William Hill)

$200 to win $230

There’s a theme to all of the next three UFC picks: They’re all backing a fighter with a world-class skill at plus-money. Let’s start with what some would call the most boring, but also perhaps the most dominant. The Danish Madsen is a former Olympic wrestler, and there’s no discipline that translates better into mixed martial arts than wrestling. Yes, his style of wrestling hasn’t been a completely smooth transition into the UFC, but he’s still 3-0 and has controlled most of his fights. Pichel is a better overall fighter, but he’s also two years older at 39 years old and has been relatively inactive the last several years while dealing with injuries. Madsen opened as high as -150 in this fight, and though that was too much, the line has over-corrected. Madsen should be a small favorite, not a small underdog.

UFC (4-4, $165): Khamzat Chimaev to win by KO/TKO/DQ +135 vs. Gilbert Burns at UFC 273 (William Hill)

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Gilbert Burns celebrates after fighting Stephen Thompson during their UFC 264 welterweight bout at T-Mobile Arena Saturday, July 10, 2021.

$200 to win $270

Chimaev has looked unbeatable, if not perfect, in his brief UFC career, stopping all four of his opponents in a combined time of less than eight minutes. The debate is now whether he is the generational-type prospect he seems or if much of his success has come because of a weak slate of opponents. I lean heavily to the former. The Russian freight train is special, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t keep showing it in his toughest challenge yet. Burns was considered more of a run-of-the-mill veteran for most of his career until lately when he won six in a row to become the top contender, ultimately losing via TKO to Kamaru Usman. That was his second knockout loss in the UFC, and Chimaev should surely be able to add another tonight.  

UFC (4-4, $165): Mackenzie Dern to win by submission +250 vs. Tecia Torres at UFC 273 (BetMGM)

$200 to win $500

The veteran Torres has never been submitted in her career, people have spouted all week. She’s also never faced a submission artist like Dern, the UFC’s most dangerous female fighter on the ground. Fans seem to dislike Dern for some reason, and that’s been reflected in the betting market where this is a surprising pick’em fight. Sure, she’s lost a couple fights where she was heavily favored — against Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas — but both of those fighters had skillsets that more naturally neutralized Dern’s strength. Torres is more of a grinder, and it’s hard to see her avoiding getting taken down at least one by Dern. And Dern only needs one takedown to finish. That leaves this number far too high.

NASCAR (2-1, $150): Ryan Blaney -110 head-to-head vs. Denny Hamlin at Martinsville (SuperBook)

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NASCAR Cup Series driver Ryan Blaney (12) waits in his car before a NASCAR Cup Series auto race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021, in Las Vegas.

$220 to win $200

Blaney’s speed has been blistering all year. It’s just a matter of time until he catches some breaks to pick up his first win of the season. You know, breaks like the ones Hamlin got last week in order to pick up a win at Richmond. Hamlin was outside the top five in every speed metric but made some wise strategic moves and got into the right place at the right time to pick up a victory. That’s the nature of racing, especially in NASCAR’s field-leveling new car, but over time, speed is going to win out. Blaney has been a lot faster than Hamlin all year, and combined with his success at Martinsville, shouldn’t be available at a pick’em price in this matchup.  

Weekend wagers column year to date: 8-12, -$547.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 250-242-1, $5,970.93

Previous pending wagers: Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win Masters ($100 to win $1,200); Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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