Weekend wagers: Six bets on six different sports in a new format

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Betting the same amount on a 100-to-1 longshot future as a chalky favorite in a one-off game rarely makes much sense.

That’s why I’m changing the format of the weekend wagers column as it enters its third full year with the traditional reset following football season. Gone are the standard, assumed $100 bets on every wager previously used for tracking purposes.

Now I’ll attach a hypothetical bet amount fitting within the column’s established bankroll to each play. Nothing else is changing, as I’ll still try to make at least five plays on five different sports every Saturday for variety’s sake with an emphasis on events that have the most interest.

For the next few weeks, that’s college basketball so let’s ramp up in anticipation for the NCAA Tournament. Between the final Sunday sweats edition of the column and a props piece, football season ended in minor disappointment – though I still made a $664.21 profit with an overall 64-66 record in the weekend column.

I’m confident I can do better than that over the next six months before switching back to a sole-football focus on Saturdays – especially with the new money setup.

Read below for six bets on six different sports this week in the first edition of this year’s weekend wagers. Records are reset but will be kept for each individual sport with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

PGA Tour (0-0, $0): Denny McCarthy -105 vs. Rickie Fowler in third round of Honda Classic (Caesars/William Hill)

$157.50 to win $150

Any time the ever-popular, once top-five-in-the-world ranked Fowler does anything lately, some are quick to declare him "back." It's been a premature declaration before, and it might be a premature declaration again after he made the cut at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. this weekend. It's not as if Fowler is lighting the difficult course up, as he just slipped past the cut line at 2-over par. That's the same score as the 28-year-old McCarthy, but the thing about the less-famous veteran is no one has to say he's "back." He's never left. McCarthy has been a consistent, albeit unspectacular, staple on the PGA Tour over the last several years. He's one of the best putters in the world, which should help him card respectable scores in the final two rounds this weekend. Perhaps Fowler could do the same but the 33-year-old one-time phenom is more combustible. McCarthy is a little too cheap in this matchup.

College basketball (0-0, $0): Arkansas -2 vs. Kentucky (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$110 to win $100

Kentucky might be the most dangerous team in the country at full strength. The Wildcats are not at full strength right now. Both TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler could miss their second game this week, leaving a void of reliable ballhandlers in Big Blue's backcourt. Even if one or both of them play, they don't figure to be at full strength. Arkansas could handle Kentucky on its home court anyway. No team in the nation is as hot as the Razorbacks, at least not from a betting perspective as they've covered in nine straight games. Coach Eric Musselman has Arkansas clicking and peaking at a perfect time. This number has shot up to -3 at some sports books and could climb higher if the point-guard pair is confirmed out. It seems unlikely they'll play, which makes this price worth snagging while it's available.

NHL (0-0, $0): Minnesota Wild +125 at Calgary Flames (Caesars/William Hill)

$200 to win $250

I rate Minnesota a tad higher than Calgary, which means the Wild shouldn’t be this big of an underdog against the Flames regardless of where the game is taking place. Minnesota should be the underdog, but at +115 at the highest. Calgary does have a strong home-ice advantage given its relatively remote location, but this isn’t all that bad of a travel spot for Minnesota. It’s the Wild’s eighth game since the All-Star break while it’s the Flames’ ninth. Calgary has the better goal differential and underlying statistics on the season, but it’s also faced an easier schedule and at worst has a roster equal to Minnesota’s. This is more of a coin flip than the market currently indicates.

UFC (0-0, $0): Arman Tsarukyan -200 vs. Joel Alvarez at UFC Fight Night (Boyd Sports)

$400 to win $200

No one likes to lay this big of a price, but it’s the best value available for the latest card at the UFC’s local Apex facility. The 25-year-old Tsarukyan looks like potential title contender down the line with his only loss coming to the night’s headliner, Islam Makhachev, in his UFC debut. The tough, well-rounded Russian should be able to use pressure to smother the Spanish Alvarez who’s used his size to overperform and win four straight in the octagon. That shouldn’t bother Tsarukyan, however, as he’s shown enough to be considered on a different level. Alvarez’s best path to victory is by submission, and Tsarukyan has shown strong defense throughout his three-year UFC career. Tsarukyan should roll to a unanimous-decision victory. The +180 price tag on him to win by decision was tempting, but with his upside, I’d rather just pay up and get all his paths to a win.

NASCAR (0-0, $0): Christopher Bell +105 head-to-head vs. Kurt Busch in Auto Club 400 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$200 to win $210

Quick rant: Why is the SuperBook the only shop offering NASCAR matchups as of Friday evening? Perhaps books are waiting for Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions, but the former is in a limited capacity and won’t be all that telling anyway. This is only the second official Cup race of the year, so let’s hope bookmakers get their acts together and start posting more options sooner in the future. One thing most books do have in common this week is underrating Joe Gibbs Racing’s least notable driver. The 27-year-old Bell is only in his third full Cup season, but should have the opportunity to make a leap in the next-generation car. He should be especially dangerous at Fontana this weekend, where he’s available at as high as a valuable 40-to-1 to win, given the strength he’s shown for driving on high tire wear tracks. He’ll be in better equipment than the 43-year-old Busch, who’s already on the downside of his career and is now breaking in with a new team in 23XI racing. A plus-price shouldn’t be attached to Bell in this matchup.

MLS (0-0, $0): Philadelphia Union to win MLS Cup 16-to-1 (BetMGM)

$125 to win $2,000

It’s MLS Opening Day, but instead of getting down on a game wager, let’s attack the best future left on the board. Philadelphia is 10-to-1 to 12-to-1 at most other sports books, which is more in the range where it belongs. The Union won the Supporter’s Shield — for the best regular-season record — two years ago and then were a COVID-19 outbreak away from reaching the MLS Cup Final last season. And that was despite splitting their focus on the MLS season with CONCACAF Champions League, where the Union reached the semifinals. There’s no such distraction this year and Philadelphia looks right in the mix with New England and defending-champion NYCFC as the premier Eastern Conference side. It has a relatively tough opening day challenge in Minnesota this morning, but instead of laying a price in that game, it’s smarter to play the long game and back Philadelphia for the year.

Weekend wagers column year to date: 0-0, $0

Weekend betting column all-time: 242-230-1, $6,518.43

Previous pending wagers: Jon Rahm 12-to-1 to win 2022 Masters; Texas 50-to-1 to win 2022 NCAA Tournament

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or