Vegas pick’em: NFL wild-card weekend winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 13, 2022 | 2 a.m.

If the NFL postseason plays out exactly in the fashion that the odds say is most likely, then a Super Bowl 1 reboot will be in store for Super Bowl 56 next month at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

For the second straight year, the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs go into the playoffs favored to win their respective conferences. The Packers are +150 (risking $1 to win $1.50) to win the NFC while the Chiefs are +160 (risking $1 to win $1.60) to win the AFC at Caesars Sportsbook.

Caesars has also posted Super Bowl exacta odds going into this weekend’s first round, with the two possible outcomes involving Green Bay and Kansas City appropriately at the top of the odds board. Green Bay beating Kansas City in Super Bowl 56 is +950, while the Chiefs topping the Packers is 10-to-1.

Both those prices seem too short, though that’s likely true of every option in a market like Super Bowl exactas. Be wary before betting into a pool like that because the hold percentage is in almost every case extremely high.

I won’t therefore be playing any exactas, but if forced, I’d be tempted to pass on the Super Bowl 1 callback and instead wager on a different kind of nostalgia — 1990s throwback, to be exact. Cowboys to beat the Bills in the Super Bowl is 40-to-1, while Bills over Cowboys is 45-to-1.

No, the two franchises who met two straight times in 1993 and 1994 haven’t been the best teams on a week-by-week basis this year. But they’ve had the highest highs, and if they can rediscover and maintain them in the playoffs, then we all might be tempted to throw on our Starter jackets and dig out some grunge cassettes in a few weeks.    

Read below for picks on every wild-card round game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The record for the year picking every game against the spread stands at 136-135-1 after a 6-10, though 4-0 on plays, Week 18 showing.

Plays (47-38)

Philadelphia Eagles +8.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Getting to play the Panthers and Jets exclusively over the final three weeks of the regular season helped shield the fact that the Buccaneers aren’t the same team with cluster injuries and absences among their offensive skill positions. Both Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette are expected to play through injuries this week, but they’re far from guaranteed to be at 100%. The Eagles should be fresher after sitting their starters in last week’s loss to Dallas and they’ve been undervalued all year as a team above-average on both sides of the ball by expected points per added per play.

Dallas Cowboys -3 vs. San Francisco 49ers Take away the narrow loss to the Cardinals two weeks ago and the Cowboys have won and covered in every game since the start of December with a +99 point differential. Dallas is the NFL’s secret steamroller no one seems to be talking about. The 49ers are a tough task for anyone, but the Cowboys might match up better with them than any other team in the NFC. Much of the 49ers’ offense is based around Deebo Samuel and the Cowboys rate first in the league in covering top receivers per Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.  

Las Vegas Raiders +5.5 at Cincinnati Bengals The Raiders’ defense swallowed up the Bengals in their first game this season, holding the visitors to 4.1 yards per play at Allegiant Stadium. The game flipped with a pair of fourth-quarter turnovers, leading to a 32-13 Cincinnati victory, but Las Vegas was easily the more efficient team on the day in putting up a 1.9 net yard per play advantage. This was an easier play at the opening price of Las Vegas +6.5, but still worth taking a smaller position down to +4.5.

Leans (47-42)

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals Think of the Cardinals as the anti-Cowboys. If Arizona doesn’t eke out the aforementioned game in Dallas, it would have lost five straight games going into the postseason. The Cardinals are still just 1-4 straight-up and against the spread over the last month with a -36 point differential. They are reeling going into the playoffs, meaning there’s no justification for this line being the same as it was when Arizona visited Los Angeles earlier in the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers +13 at Kansas City Chiefs Which version of the Steelers’ offense will show up at Arrowhead — the halfway-decent version or the totally-helpless variant? Contrary to all the punchlines about quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s struggles in his final season, the former has existed periodically throughout the season. The Steelers’ defense should have enough to limit the Chiefs’ offense at least somewhat. They didn’t do so in a 36-10 loss last month but impending Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt played limited snaps in that game with cracked ribs. I rushed to play Pittsburgh +10 back then, so not taking three more points this time around would be shortsighted.  

Guesses (42-55-1)

New England Patriots +4.5 at Buffalo Bills Take: The Bills are going to the Super Bowl if they get past the Patriots. And they should get past the Patriots, though their AFC East divisional rival creates the toughest matchup for them. Turnover issues have struck rookie quarterback Mac Jones over the last month, but the Patriots are solid at every other position. Buffalo -4 is the fair price, so there might be ever-so-slight value on New England with the couple books still hanging the extra half-point hook.    

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or