What to bet at UFC 276: Jump on these five prices

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, July 1, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Fight day of a major pay-per-view card in Las Vegas isn’t unlike an NFL Sunday from a betting perspective.

Sure, the former doesn’t quite on average compete with the latter, but the gap isn’t as wide as some may think. And the larger point is that most of the money doesn’t start rolling in until right before the start of both events.

That creates opportunity for those who want to do the work ahead of time and lock in their wagers before the market really starts moving — especially in the UFC. The day before the game might be too late when it comes to most football games, but the handicap is less severe as pertains to mixed martial arts.

There’s still plenty of value to find with mispriced odds spread all over town going into Saturday’s UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena. I combed through every sportsbook in Las Vegas and tried to find the best bargains available.

UFC has been Talking Points’ worst market so far this year, with a record of 6-13 for a loss of $1,920 in the weekly Weekend Wagers column — which is still up over $5,000 in all sports combined. But there’s time for turnaround, and UFC 276 could be where it starts.

Read below for Talking Points’ five best UFC 276 bets, and come back tomorrow for the Weekend Wagers column covering other sports in addition to live coverage of the fights.

Dricus du Plessis to defeat Brad Tavares at -140 (STN Sports)

$420 to win $300

The locally based Tavares, who has long trained out of Xtreme Couture, doesn’t get enough respect for a highly impressive 20-fight, 12-year run in the UFC.

Perhaps the 33-year-old Tavares deserves more respect in the form of better matchups, because this looks like one where he’s set up to fail. The 28-year-old du Plessis is younger, faster and more powerful.

He’s a legitimate prospect in the middleweight division after a pair of knockouts to start his UFC career. Tavares could succumb to the same fate, though he’s more than tough enough to drag this to a decision.

But it’s just hard to see him getting the nod from the judges. Du Plessis is as high as a -164 favorite elsewhere, and probably should close in the -175 range.

Andre Muniz by submission vs. Uriah Hall at -110 (BetMGM)

$330 to win $300

Hall has never been submitted through a 27-fight mixed martial arts career, which might be helping to keep this price suppressed.

It should be higher. Muniz is a wizard on the ground, the likes of which Hall arguably hasn’t encountered.

The game plan for Hall will be to keep the fight on the feet and use his striking to test Muniz’s chin. But that sounds easier said than done considering Hall has struggled with his takedown defense consistently throughout his career.

Muniz has submitted three straight opponents via first-round armbar, and it might be there for him against Hall too. It’s the most likely result of this fight, one far more probable than the 50/50 chance the odds currently suggest.

Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO/DQ vs. Pedro Munhoz at +165 (Circa Sports)

$150 to win $247.50

A similar reasoning to the Muniz submission prop applies here to a knockout prop.

Munhoz has never been knocked out, but so what? He’s now 35 years old and getting hit more often than ever before, having lost four of his last five fights.

He’s faced an incredible run of opponents in those fights, but none that are currently as hard-hitting as O’Malley. The 27-year-old has knocked out three straight opponents and will definitely have his openings against Munhoz.

Maybe he won’t convert on them, but the odds that he does feel better than the roughly 38% this line suggests. It’s worth throwing a small bet on as long as the odds stay inflated.

Sean Strickland to defeat Alex Pereira at -110 (STN Sports)

$165 to win $150

The big question here is whether the polarizing Strickland will show off his underrated wrestling game and grapple the decorated Pereira to a decision win.

All indications, including from Strickland himself, are that he is planning on such an approach. It’s worth taking a pick’em price to trust him at his word.

In contrary to regularly occurring irrational comments that have built a negative public persona, Strickland has displayed smarts in the octagon during a six-fight win streak that has him on the verge of a title shot.

He’s got to know striking with Pereira, a world-champion kickboxer, is not in his best interest. Pereira has looked fantastic since crossing over into mixed martial arts full-time last year, but Strickland is more seasoned in the sport and better overall.

Parlay: Israel Adesanya to defeat Jared Cannonier & Maycee Barber to defeat Jessica Eye at -156 (Caesars/William Hill)

$312 to win $200

The masses betting this card are going to be searching for the right parlay, so why not give the people what they want?

These look like the two safest sides on the card, which isn’t all that bold of a statement with Adesanya sitting at -475 and Barber at -280 at Caesars. Expect both to close significantly higher.

Adesanya might be a more vulnerable champion than the UFC’s marketing leads viewers to believe, but a less technical striker like Cannonier isn’t the one to take advantage of that. Adesanya should outclass him and may even be worth a look to win by KO/TKO/DQ at +170 given the likelihood the champion wears down the challenger with five rounds of time to work.

As for Barber, there’s a reason she leapt at the chance to fill an injury vacancy and volunteered herself to take on Eye.

Barber is 24 years old and constantly improving in contrast to Eye, who’s 35 years old and fading fast with three straight losses after a strong career.

Keep the parlays small, preferably only two sides, and look for a book that offers below market-prices on all of them. Caesars obliged here with Adesanya and Barber.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or