Weekend wagers: Seven plays spanning the betting board

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 2, 2022 | 2 a.m.

I took a victory lap in the last installment of Weekend Wagers after the most profitable week in the history of the column, so it’s only fair that I now turn the tables and partake in some self-flagellation.

Last week was terrible, bringing a major downturn to the bottom line and dropping it below $5,000 profit on the year. The picks from last weekend's column alone weren’t all that bad — still a loser, but a clean sweep of three baseball plays including on Ole Miss to win the College World Series helped — but a pair of futures also fell to compound the losses.

First, the Birmingham Stallions eliminated the New Orleans Breakers in the USFL semifinals. Then, Cale Makar — as expected — beat out Nathan MacKinnon for the Conn Smythe Trophy as the Colorado Avalanche won the Stanley Cup Final.

Put it all together, and Weekend Wagers lost $890. Oof.

But part of sports betting is being able to handle the losses, and stay the course. That’s what I’m doing this week.

Opportunities to build back up abound, as I’ve already locked in a handful of UFC 276 plays that will be tracked here. Let’s replenish the futures ledger with slightly and fire on several more bets to cap off the week.

Read on for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Golf (3-3-2, $5,892.50): Ryan Moore +115 head-to-head vs. Anibarn Lahiri in third round at John Deere Classic (BetMGM)

$200 to win $230

I'll start and end this week's column with bets on local products. Moore, the former national champion at UNLV, isn't quite what he was once on the PGA Tour, so this price would be fair against the younger, more in-form Lahiri at most courses on the schedule. But TPC Deere Run is not one of those courses. Course history can be overrated, but there's a large sample that says it's more predictive than usual at the John Deere Classic. And few who made the cut have better course history than Moore. He's won the John Deere, and finished second last year. Driving accuracy is of the utmost importance, and Moore remains one of the most accurate drivers on tour. Lahiri is more well-rounded, but that shouldn't matter here. Not when Moore is this big of an underdog at least. It's a clear take.

MLB (8-3, $893): Miami Marlins -125 vs. Washington Nationals (Wynn)

$250 to win $200

The one-National League, one-American League approach produced a sweep last week so let’s keep it intact again. I wanted to keep with the same one-favorite, one-underdog setup too but this price was too attractive. Miami has underachieved with a 34-40 record despite a positive run differential and should be more formidable for the rest of the year. The Nationals have, if anything, overachieved despite a pathetic 29-49 record. Both starting pitchers in today’s matchup haven’t been great, but Miami’s Daniel Castano has shown more than Washington’s Jackson Tetreault. The line on the favorite is off by at least 15 cents.  

MLB (8-3, $893): New York Yankees -150 vs. Cleveland Guardians in the second game of the double-header (Wynn)

$300 to win $200

Can’t go wrong betting the record-setting Yankees, right? This position actually has little to do with them, though. It’s more of a fade on the Guardians, who are getting too much respect out of taking three of four from the AL Central-leading Twins. They came back in all those victories and were largely outplayed overall. Today’s starter Triston McKenzie has a bright future, but he’s not quite there yet and has been inconsistent. Yankees starter Nestor Cortes has also cooled off, but the betting market is too reactive to his recent drop in quality. Cortes will find a happy medium. The Yankees will keep rolling for now, while the Guardians are bound to fall off a bit.

USFL (4-6, -$499.50): Birmingham Stallions -190 moneyline vs. Philadelphia Stars in USFL Championship Game (Circa Sports)

$190 to win $100

I’ve stuck with handicapping the USFL for the whole season, and what do I have to show for it? Nothing but a decent-sized loss. The Stallions have been the height of the problems as I’ve continually tried to fade them and paid the price. It feels dirty to now jump on board, but it would seem even worse to not weigh in on Sunday’s championship game. And while the -190 price may look steep, it’s a lot better value than laying four points at -110. This game is still expected to be low scoring with a total of 44.5 points — though I would lean to the over — to add a premium on points. Birmingham has found a way to eke out close wins all year and may do the same in the championship. The Stallions’ moneyline should be a hair above -200.

NASCAR (7-6, $1,100): Daniel Suarez -110 head-to-head vs. Kyle Busch in Kwik Trip 250 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$220 to win $200

Suarez should be an underdog to Chase Elliott and teammate Ross Chastain for Sunday’s road course race. Maybe Kyle Larson too. But the list ends there. The TrackHouse Racing driver has found his groove, and now gets to bring it to his best type of track. Suarez is less than a month removed from winning on the last road course, Sonoma. Busch can never be underestimated, but his Joe Gibbs Racing team has struggled on road courses all year. The initial plan here was to place an outright on Suarez to win the race at 18-to-1, but the price has crashed, and the best available is now 15-to-1. There’s still a little value on that, but the best way to back him now is by targeting head-to-head matchups like this one.

Golf (3-3-2, $5,892.50): Seamus Power to win J.P. McManus Pro-Am Individual Title at 35-to-1 (SuperBook)

$100 to win $3,500

Big-time props to the SuperBook for putting up an outright market on the biggest Pro-Am of the year going down Monday and Tuesday in Ireland with virtually all the best and most famous golfers in the world, including Tiger Woods. There should be a lot of randomness with a 36-hole event where pros intermingle with billionaire businessmen and star athletes, so it’s difficult to back someone at the top of the board. I’d prefer to target the midrange in the betting odds in this sort of setup, and Power presents a golden opportunity. The Irish native is on great form, sitting as the second-favorite in this week’s Irish Open through two rounds while three strokes back, and should feel right at home on the type of course he’ll face at Adare Manor. If Power continues to play well in the Irish Open, look for this price to crash. Even if it doesn’t, 35-to-1 is still terrific value.

NHL (4-5, $38): Vegas Golden Knights to win 2023 Stanley Cup at 15-to-1 (Circa)

$200 to win $3,000

OK, I’ll bite. I wanted to get a piece of the 16-to-1 price the Golden Knights opened at the SuperBook this week, but it’s already down to 12-to-1. Circa now has the best odds in town for those wanting to bet on the ultimate Golden Knights’ bounce-back next season. Count me among them, as I rate Vegas as easy top-five team in 2022-2023, one that was railroaded by injuries this past season. The coaching change was unnecessary but might end up working out as it’s easy to envision a scenario where Bruce Cassidy brings out the best of players like Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. I’ll bulk up the NHL futures portfolio over the next several months, but it made the most sense to start right at home with Vegas.

Weekend wagers this year: 41-49-2, $4,884.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 383-379-4, $11,402.93

Previous pending wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Jon Rahm at 15-to-1 to win the Open Championship ($150 to win $2,250)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or