NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Sweet 16

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, March 24, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Gonzaga big man Drew Timme rescued his No. 1 overall seeded team from a potential upset last round and saw his odds to win the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player plummet as a result.

Timme delivered a fiery speech to his teammates at halftime with Gonzaga facing a 10-point deficit to No. 9 seed Memphis, and then scored 21 of his total 25 points in the second half of an 82-78 comeback win. The junior’s odds to win the tournament’s most prestigious individual award virtually cut in half from there, as he now sits at +550 (i.e. $100 to win $550) at Boyd Sports.

Timme was 10-to-1 to win Most Outstanding Player coming into the tournament at at least one offshore sports book. With Gonzaga now +240 to win the tournament, taking Timme to win the honors might be a sharper way to back the Bulldogs.

He’s not guaranteed to win Most Outstanding Player if Gonzaga prevails, but he’s by far the most likely choice even with teammates like Chet Holmgren (+850), Andrew Nembhard (16-to-1), Julian Strawther (55-to-1) and Rasir Bolton (75-to-1) lurking.

The players directly behind Timme and Holmgren in the market are Kansas’ Ochai Abaji (+950), Arizona’s Bennedict Mathurin (10-to-1) and Purdue’s Jaden Ivey (14-to-1).

I wouldn’t bet any of the favorites, not even Timme. My choice at current odds would be Kansas’ Remy Martin at 41-1.

The Jayhawks have the easiest path to the Final Four of the top contenders remaining, and Martin’s recent ascent after a tough and injury-ravaged season is emerging as a major story.

The awards future is a fun way to get more action on the tournament, but my main focus remains on picking every game. I’m looking to bounce back from a rough round of 32 that’s left the column’s record for the tournament at 29-21 (8-5 on plays, 10-10 on leans and 11-6 on guesses).

Read below for the next set of picks on every Sweet 16 game. Picks are labeled with one of three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best available at publication time in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 2 seed Duke +1.5 vs. No. 3 seed Texas Tech A smothering defensive attack like Texas Tech has typically only takes a team so far in the tournament. They eventually run up against a side with too many athletes to contain. Duke may fit the bill here, especially after it seemed to find its groove in the final minute of a round of 32 escape against Michigan State. Play: Duke +1.5.

No. 1 seed Arizona -1.5 vs. No. 5 seed Houston TCU is in many ways a lesser version of Houston with its suffocating defense and crash-the-boards mentality, and it took everything Arizona had to squeak past the Horned Frogs in overtime of the round of 32. How will the Wildcats, which also aren’t fully healthy as point guard Kerr Kriisa still looks hobbled, deal with an amplified attack? Play: Houston +1.5.

No. 4 seed UCLA -2.5 vs. No. 8 seed North Carolina If Jaime Jaquez plays through his ankle injury and is anywhere close to full strength, then this line is too low and reactive to North Carolina’s recent upswing. Jaquez has done well playing through injuries consistently over the last two years, so there’s no reason to believe he won’t do the same this time around. Play: UCLA -2.5.

No. 1 seed Gonzaga -9.5 vs. No. 4 seed Arkansas The surest path to knocking out the Bulldogs is through hitting outside shots and bearing down defensively inside the paint. The Razorbacks are not great in either category. This was a play at the Gonzaga -8.5 price earlier in the week, but it’s now trending toward not even being a lean as the number swells close to double digits. Lean: Gonzaga -9.5.

No. 10 seed Miami -2.5 vs. No. 11 seed Iowa State Given Miami’s highly-effective drive-first offense and Iowa State’s lockdown backcourt defense, this looks like perhaps the most evenly-matched game of the Sweet 16. That made the opening price of Iowa State -1 fair, and the big shift toward Miami a bit too drastic. Lean: Iowa State +2.5.

No. 1 seed Kansas -7.5 vs. No. 4 seed Providence Kansas has advantages at every position on the floor, if not every category on the statistics sheet. Stock on the Jayhawks may have dipped slightly after their sloppy outing in a 79-72 win over Creighton last round, but the Blue Jays shot way above expectation based on their season-long norms. That made the performance look worse than it really was.  Guess: Kansas -7.5.

No. 2 seed Purdue -12.5 vs. No. 15 St. Peter’s This is a lot of points for a Peacocks’ team that’s now sustained a high level of play for a long time  —their efficiency numbers skyrocketed even before the tournament — but the Boilermakers seem built to give them the problems. St. Peter’s might not have many answers for Purdue’s ability to score inside with big men Trevion Williams and Zach Edey. Guess: Purdue -12.5.

No. 2 seed Villanova -5 vs. No. 11 seed Michigan This number is completely fair, hence why there’s been no movement at virtually any sports book all week. That being said, Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson could create matchup problems for an undersized Villanova team. If Dickinson performs as well as he did in the Wolverines’ first two tournament games, an upset could be in play. Guess: Michigan +5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or