Weekend wagers: More ways to bet the Kentucky Derby

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, May 7, 2022 | 2 a.m.

For the first time in three years, Nevada race and sports books will be permitted to offer a full parimutuel betting menu for the Kentucky Derby. The state and Churchill Downs finally signed an agreement to end a long-time dispute over access to the latter’s simulcast signal.

For both the house and heavy horse players, it’s an undoubted positive development. For the more recreational gamblers if not those more steeped in sports betting, there’s been one adverse effect: Sports books have posted fewer head-to-head matchups for the race.

As of Friday evening, Caesars/William Hill and Circa Sports were the only books to post props asking bettors to pick which of two horses finishes higher. Such wagers became much more widespread over the last two years with Nevada not allowed to be a part of Churchill Downs’ parimutuel pool.

It’s a route I dabbled heavily in last year specifically but will shift focus in today’s 148^th run for the roses. I already placed future wagers on Zandon and Taiba at 8-to-1 and +630 to win, respectively, last week and I’ll augment those positions with a couple more below.

Read below for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

Horse Racing (0-0, $0): Charge It to win the Kentucky Derby 20-to-1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$50 to win $1,000

Let’s add one more shot to my stable of pre-existing win bets with Taiba and Zandon. Charge It is the only horse from the mid- to long-range odds that interests me in this year’s derby. He hasn’t put it all together yet but has winning upside if this is the trip where it happens. With Luis Saez as jockey and Todd Pletcher as trainer, Charge It should be in good hands. His true odds to win should be somewhere more in the 12-to-1 territory.  

Horse Racing (0-0, $0): Classic Causeway +120 head-to-head vs. Pioneer Of Medina (William Hill)

$200 to win $240

Well, I can’t complain about the lack of matchups and then not include one, right? Classic Causeway is the surprising horse I’ve been drawn to most in the matchups. I expect him to set the early pace before fading and ultimately finishing somewhere in the middle of the pack. With three wins in six starts including a pair of high-profile prep races at Tampa Bay Downs, he’s a cut above some of the true long shots like Tiz the Bomb, Tawny Port and Pioneer of Medina. And yet, he’s an underdog to all of them in the matchups available locally. He’s the biggest underdog to Pioneer of Medina, which is why I ultimately chose to attack this pairing. Classic Causeway had a terrible trip his last time out, finishing dead last at the Florida Derby. But dropping him this far feels like recency bias, as he was projecting as one of the Derby favorites — at least in the top five or six — previously.

USFL (2-1, $170.50): Pittsburgh Maulers +10 vs. New Jersey Generals (South Point)

$165 to win $150

Should any team be a double-digit underdog in the USFL? The league is so low-scoring, and frankly, low-quality, that I have my doubts. In fairness, if any team does deserve the betting market’s disrespect, it’s the Maulers. Pittsburgh, with former Raider running back coach Kirby Wilson at the helm, is the worst team in the league with a -45 point differential through three games. And New Jersey’s offense, led by running backs Trey Williams and Darius Victor, has been the best in the league. But Pittsburgh has at least been serviceable defensively, and should have some positive regression overall. The Maulers are bad, but they’re not this bad. I made this line New Jersey -7.5, so getting the full 10 is too much to pass up.

NHL (1-4, -$480): Colorado Avalanche -1.5 +115 in Game 3 vs. Nashville Predators (William Hill)

$200 to win $230

Nashville goalie Connor Ingram played the game of his life Thursday night, and the Predators still lost in overtime. A sweep now feels like the most likely result in this mismatch of a first-round series, especially assuming Predators goalie Juuse Saros stays sidelined. Even if he does return, and there have been rumors the Vezina Trophy candidate could for Game 3, will he be at full strength? Anything less is a liability against a team as explosive as the Avalanche. Puck lines are typically a bad idea in the NHL, but this one is generous. It should be no more than Even money towards the Avalanche. The moneyline price of -230 is also short, but I’m willing to gamble in this spot and hope Colorado bounces back from a poor Game 2 and plays more like it did in a 7-2 victory to start the series.  

MLB (4-0, $770): Miami Marlins +115 at San Diego Padres (Wynn)

$200 to win $230

San Diego starter Sean Manaea is having a good year, but Miami starter Pablo Lopez is having a great year. Lopez had his first blip on an otherwise impeccable start to the season his last time out by giving up three runs in just less than five innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks. But he had been firing on all cylinders before that, striking out 23 and giving up only 13 hits and one run in four previous starts. He’s a Cy Young Award contender this season. The Marlins aren’t half-bad themselves despite four straight one-loss runs entering Friday’s action. Lopez will help them break out of the slump.

NBA (2-0, $300): Memphis Grizzlies +7 in Game 3 at Golden State Warriors (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

This was going to be a game I passed on with the opening number of Golden State -6 but bumping it up an extra point to a key NBA number is a bridge too far. Why does Memphis continue to not get any credit? I don’t ascribe to what feels like the popular narrative that this is the Warriors’ series and the Grizzlies pose no real threat. Memphis looks so much more athletic with Ja Morant’s speed causing a nightmare matchup for Golden State’s defense, which has no surefire deterrent. The Warriors’ offense is more dependable — and they will start to shoot better — but this is going to be a long series. There’s no justification for this high of a spread.  

UFC (5-9, -$810): Marcos Rogério de Lima +134 vs. Blagoy Ivanov at UFC 274 (Boyd Sports)

$150 to win $201

Justin Gaethje was supposed to be the play for the lightweight championship main event here. Then, Charles Oliveira became the first champion to ever miss weight and the best odds on Gaethje shot down from +155 to +125. I’d still lean Gaethje, but that’s not a high enough price to be the play here. So instead, let’s go to the division where there’s hardly ever any weight problems — heavyweight. These are two big boys, and either could steamroll the other if they land cleanly a time or two. De Lima has improved a lot lately, however, while it looks like Ivanov is headed in the other direction with two straight split-decision losses. De Lima’s striking could cause real problems, at least enough to where this should be a pick’em fight.

NASCAR (5-2, $450): Erik Jones -105 head-to-head vs. Daniel Suárez in Goodyear 400 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$210 to win $200

Erik Jones’ best track on the NASCAR Cup schedule is Darlington Raceway where Sunday’s race takes place. He won the 2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500 here. Granted, he was on a better team back then in Joe Gibbs Racing, but he’s shown enough to at least be competitive with Richard Petty Motorsports. Suárez has been faster than anticipated this year too with Trackhouse Racing but this venue clearly favors Jones. It will be difficult for either to win, but Jones should run more towards the front of the pack and ultimately finish there. 

Weekend wagers column year to date: 23-21, $518

Weekend betting column all time: 365-251-1, $7,036.43

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Devin Booker 5-to-1 to win NBA Finals MVP ($250 to win $1,125); Chris Paul 8-to-1 to win NBA Finals MVP ($150 to win $1,200); New Orleans Breakers 5-to-1 to win USFL title ($200 to win $1,000); Milwaukee Bucks +185 series price vs. Boston Celtics; Taiba +630 and Zandon 8-to-1 to win Kentucky Derby ($130 to win $819 and $100 to win $800, respectively)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or