Sunday Sweats: NFL Week 11, World Cup bets to add to your card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022 | 8 a.m.

For almost surely the first time in more than 20 years, the World Cup won’t be Las Vegas’ primary betting attraction when it begins Sunday in Qatar.

That’s a consequence of the competition forgoing its usual summer slot and moving later in the year to play in more forgiving temperatures in the Middle Eastern country’s desert climate.

The 32-team tournament is such a global phenomenon that it’s capable of being a domestic sports-betting headliner for most of the year. Just not during football season.

There will still be millions wagered in Las Vegas on the event but don’t expect soccer to overtake college football or certainly the NFL. It might be a disappointing pivot for those who dive deep into soccer betting once every four years, but all it will take is a little time management to delve into both.

Football and fútbol can coexist, as Sunday Sweats already showed a couple weeks ago, and will continue attempting. I’ll be handicapping the World Cup in this space throughout its duration, starting today with three future plays.

It might not be bold, but I’m going with Brazil at +350 (risking $300 to win $1,050) to win the World Cup at BetMGM. None of the other nations have a roster nearly on the level of Brazil’s. It’s so much better that this number should be even lower, and maybe it will get there by Sunday as it’s already come down from 4-to-1 early in the week.

That bet makes it only natural to like Brazil’s leader and the player who will take its penalty kicks, Neymar, to win the Golden Boot at 16-to-1 (risking $100 to win $1,600) at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Defending champion France looks like a potential foe for Brazil in the finals, partially because it got an easy group draw with Denmark, Australia and Tunisia. So, for the final bet, I’m taking France to win Group D at -190 (risking $380 to win $200) at BetMGM.

This November and December, let’s cash tickets both on the gridiron and the pitch.

Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200.

Tasty Total (5-6, -$320): New York Jets at New England Patriots under 38.5 points (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

Brisk and windy weather is forecasted for Gillette Stadium, adding further questions to how these two offensively-challenged, defensively-led teams are going to put points on the board. Their first game two weeks ago featured a 22-17 Patriots win but that was in fairer conditions at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Despite the victory, New England averaged only 3.8 yards per play and relied on making five field goals. That’s not going to be as easy in 20 mile per hour wind. Totals this low are always scary for the chance of a defensive touchdown changing everything, but barring that scenario, both these teams will be hard-pressed to even reach the 20s.

Tasty Total (5-6, -$320): Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers over 52 points (BetMGM)

$220 to win $200

I’ll go with two totals this week and balance out the under with the over. Taking over on this Sunday Night Football AFC West showdown is the definition of buying the dip even if it’s the highest total on the board this week. More meaningfully, it’s the lowest total between these two over the last two seasons. That doesn’t make sense because not only are they in a climate-controlled venue at SoFi Stadium but both offenses are trending upwards. Kansas City looks buoyed by the trade-deadline addition of wide receiver Kadarius Toney while Los Angeles is expected to return both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Combined with both defenses being below average, this game should produce even more fireworks than the Chiefs’ 34-28 win at SoFi last season.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (5-5, -$350): Buffalo Bills -2 & Las Vegas Raiders +8.5 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

Las Vegas is in a downward spiral, but Denver hasn’t beaten a team by this many points all year. The Broncos’ offense is too deficient to expect them to pull away from anyone. They also haven’t beaten the Raiders in the last five meetings between the two teams, so the visitors bouncing back and winning outright isn’t out of the question. Now that the Bills’ game is moved to Detroit, their point spread looks a little low. The betting market has been higher on the Browns than conventional wisdom all season long but it hasn’t really paid off with a 4-5 against the spread record. Cleveland might play Buffalo tough, but the latter should bounce back from a two-game losing streak. It’s difficult to envision the Bills not winning by at least a field goal.

Moneyline Parlay (3-7, -$446.50): Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions & Chicago Bears +575 (Circa Sports)

$100 to win $575

The Bears and Lions are two of my favorite underdogs on this week’s card, and their moneyline prices at Circa — +130 on the former and +146 on the latter — look a tad bit long. Throwing in a favorite as high as the Ravens — -775 to beat the Panthers — is not something typically in my playbook but it’s worth using as a small boost here. The Ravens’ recently-strengthened roster is so much better than the Panthers’ pseudo-tanking group that the number isn’t even high enough. The Bears and Falcons shapes up as a near pick’em in my opinion. It feels like the Giants have wiped out this category at least three times this season, and now they’re going to have another opportunity against the Lions.

Player Prop (9-12, -$546): Keenan Allen anytime touchdown +155 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $310

It’s important to note that Boyd house rules makes this a refund if Allen ends up not playing and misses his ninth consecutive game. All signs point to him not only playing, though, but playing well. Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings grade the Chiefs as the worst team in the league against No. 1 receivers, and the Chargers use Allen as a traditional No. 1 receiver when he’s in the game. I’ve already explained in the totals section why I expect this to be a shootout. If the game script goes according to my projection, it’s hard to see Allen not finding the end zone at some point.

Future Finding (0-2, -$100): Tennessee to win the Battle 4 Atlantis +250 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $500

I so thoroughly enjoyed digging into a holiday college basketball tournament in last week’s column for two bets that I’m going back to it this week. This year’s Battle 4 Atlantis shapes up extremely beneficial for the Volunteers, better than these odds imply. Battle 4 Atlantis favorite Kansas (+130) has been better than Tennessee to start the season but the two sides are pretty evenly-matched as far as overall team strength. And Tennessee has a much easier draw in Nassau, Bahamas. NC State, Dayton and Wisconsin are all on Kansas’ top half of the bracket. Tennessee gets a more forgiving path of Butler, USC and BYU. The Volunteers should be sharp, win at least two games easily to get into the championship game.

Non-football Play (7-5, $480): Ecuador pick’em/draw no bet vs. Qatar -140 (Circa Sports)

$210 to win $150

Three World Cup bets wasn’t quite enough. I also wanted to lock in something in the ceremonial first game featuring the host country. And the host country in this case should be overmatched. Ecuador is far better from a statistical perspective, meaning the only reason this line is deflated because of homefield advantage. Several people are picking, and surely betting, Qatar because of the history of host countries playing well in World Cup openers but that holds no bearing here. The numbers say Ecuador is a lot better, and I’m always going to trust the numbers over the narrative.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 29-37, -$1,282.50

Weekend betting column year to date: 97-116-1, $2,311.08

Weekend betting column all-time: 439-447-5, $9,156.81

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Texas to win the Big 12 at +450 ($200 to win $900); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs at -135 ($270 to win $200); Oklahoma to win the ESPN Invitational at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200); Ole Miss to win the ESPN Invitational at 12-to-1 ($100 to win $1,200)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or