Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 5 winners against the spread

Micah Parsons

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) sacks Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, in Arlington, Tx.

Decisive leaders in the NFL’s biggest award categories don’t traditionally emerge until late in the season, but the betting market has labeled one ahead of schedule this year.

The race for the Defensive Player of the Year award already has a clear frontrunner. Less than a quarter into the regular season, Defensive Rookie of the Year Micah Parsons is as low as +180 (i.e. risking $100 to win $180), at Caesars/William Hill, after helping keep the Dallas Cowboys’ defense ranked near the top of the league.

Four players were listed at the top of the board coming into the season as 2021 winner T.J. Watt of the Steelers, Myles Garrett of the Browns, Aaron Donald and the Rams and Parsons were all virtual co-favorites anywhere from 4-to-1 to 8-to-1. But Watt and Garrett have already missed time, and the Rams’ defense has underachieved.

That leaves Parsons, who’s already got four sacks despite also holding more responsibilities than simply being an edge rusher.

Truth be told, I’m kicking myself for not betting Parsons going into the season given how well the situation set up for him. Luckily, I did pick off prices on a couple of his biggest current competitors including the Packers’ Rashan Gary (who’s gone from 80-to-1  to 8-to-1) and the Raiders’ Maxx Crosby (who’s gone from 33-to-1 to 12-to-1).

It’s always tempting in a situation like this to act with a fear of missing out and add Parsons at the shorter price, but it’s best to resist that temptation. Chasing a missed bet is not a winning strategy in the long run. 

With 14 weeks left to go in the regular season, no one should yet be below 2-to-1 in an awards market.

Perhaps Parsons will slump, and his number will swell again to present a buy opportunity. Maybe I’ll even call for that to start happening — at least from a Cowboys’ team perspective — this week.

Read on for picks on every Week 5 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Last week’s overall record was 8-6-1 to make the season record 32-29-1.

Plays (9-5-2)

Minnesota Vikings -7 vs. Chicago Bears Traditionally there’s been a decline when a team like the Vikings opts against taking a bye week following a London game but I don’t buy that’s going to be the case here. Minnesota tailored its whole travel plan around staying on Central time and being prepared for this divisional matchup, one where they have clear upper hand from a personnel perspective.   

Denver Broncos -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts Traveling to play on a short week for Thursday Night Football is hard enough without having to travel to Denver, as the Broncos have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the league largely because of the elevation. The Colts are 31st in the league by Football Outsiders’ DAVE ratings, but the market is continuing to price them more around average.

Los Angeles Rams -4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys It’s a simultaneous chance to sell high on the Cowboys, which have won and covered three straight against a mediocre schedule, and buy low on the Rams, which aren’t as helpless offensively as they showed in a 24-9 loss to the 49ers on Monday. This was the exact line on this matchup coming into the season with Dak Prescott the expected starting quarterback for Dallas, meaning the respect for fill-in Cooper Rush has gone too far.

Detroit Lions +3 at New England Patriots Likely Patriot starting quarterback Bailey Zappe has been a joy to watch dating back to last season at Western Kentucky, but he shouldn’t be favored in an NFL game yet. The Lions’ defense has been the worst in the league by far but should start to benefit from some positive regression.

Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Ravens must be one of the best 2-2 teams in recent memory considering they’ve only trailed for 14 seconds of game time and lost to two of the top teams in the league in the Bills and Dolphins. They also have the best offense in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, one that should threaten Cincinnati’s propensity for giving up explosive plays.

Leans (11-17)

Houston Texans +7 at Jacksonville Jaguars The Jaguars have a big coaching edge, but the talent level of the roster isn’t all that different between these two teams. The Texans are unlucky to be winless right now with only a -20 point differential, which is better than six teams in the league and tied with two others.

New Orleans Saints -5 vs. Seattle Seahawks The Saints look like they should return a rash of injured players this week, making this a good sell-high spot on the Seahawks. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith has been a great story, but he’s not set up for as much success against one of the most talented secondaries in the league.

New York Jets +3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins The Jets have been decent one series and then dreadful the next, but more than competent at their best and the consistency is something that could come along for one of the NFL’s youngest teams. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson’s first work of the year was more encouraging than Miami's Teddy Bridgewater’s, and this line might be overestimating the latter.

Carolina Panthers +6.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers There’s been talk of the Panthers quitting on coach Matt Rhule, and that sentiment may have seeped into the line with this inflated price even though it’s something impossible to quantify or confirm. The 49ers opened as low as 4-point favorites, a fairer price for a team coming across the country on a short week off Monday Night Football.

Arizona Cardinals +5.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles won and covered their third straight in a 29-21 victory over the Jaguars as a 6.5-point favorite, but the spread decision really could have gone either way. It’s a sign that the market has caught up to Philadelphia, which is in a tough spot traveling East to West against an improving Arizona team.    

Guesses (12-7)

Green Bay Packers -8 vs. New York Giants in London The Giants have played the second-weakest schedule of opposing offenses in the league, according to Football Outsiders, and have still surrendered a below-average 5.7 yards per play. This feels like a spot for the Packers’ offense to get right.

Cleveland Browns +3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers There’s a reason why this line hasn’t moved at all since Sunday afternoon at the most reputable sports books — because it’s perfectly in place. It’s a tough spot for the banged-up Chargers, though, as they’re  on the road in back-to-back weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay’s previously impenetrable defense took a hit in a 41-31 Sunday Night Football loss to Kansas City as closing 2-point favorites, but Atlanta doesn’t boast the same firepower. I’m not wild about laying a big number with the Buccaneers, but teasing them down to -2.5 is a highly attractive option.

Las Vegas Raiders +7 at Kansas City Chiefs The Chiefs are obviously the more dangerous side, but this sets up as a promising spot for a desperate Raiders’ team going into a bye week. The number is right at the moment, but the road team might be worth a small bet if it reaches +7.5.

Tennessee Titans -2.5 at Washington Commanders Washington has bottomed out, looking like potentially the worst team in the league with three straight losses where it failed to cover each spread by double digits. That usually precedes a buy-low opportunity, but it’s not worth considering the Commanders at less than +3 against virtually anyone.

Pittsburgh Steelers +14 at Buffalo Bills I’ll take this many points this early in the season out of principle. That doesn’t mean it’s comfortable in a game that might pair the best team in the NFL against the worst one.   

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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