Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 6 winners against the spread

Colts kicker

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Indianapolis Colts place kicker Chase McLaughlin (7) against the Denver Broncos of an NFL football game Thursday, Oct 6, 2022, in Denver.

No team in the NFL has been luckier than the Indianapolis Colts through five weeks.

The Colts somehow became the only team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs this year when they eked out a 20-17 Week 3 victory where they were outgained by nearly 1.5 yards per play. A highly-controversial unsportsmanlike conduct on Chris Joneshe has a knack for picking those up, apparently — might have been the single biggest play.

Then Indianapolis proved it must hold sort of sorcery over the AFC West in an all-time ugly Thursday Night Football game at Denver last week. The Colts survived a 12-9 field-goal fest in overtime despite having just a 6.2% postgame win expectancy (a measure of how often a team can expect to win a game based on their production) per Football Outsiders.

Betting against Indianapolis long-term looks like a profitable venture. For many years, bettors weren’t able to do that from a futures perspective and had to focus on week-by-week spots.

That’s starting to change with sports books like Caesars/William Hill and BetMGM — and several others nationally — updating regular-season win totals and odds to make or miss the playoffs on a weekly basis.

So lock in the Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 (i.e. risking $110 to win $100) at Caesars as this week’s first bet. As a bonus, I’ll also fire on the Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 (i.e. risking $100 to win $140).

Miami looked destined for the postseason after a 3-0 start but are now favored to be 3-3 after this week with its top two quarterbacks injured. The AFC wild-card race is shaping up to be extremely competitive, with Miami’s chances amounting to more of a coin flip than the odds imply.

It’s still most fun to look at markets like make or miss the playoffs going into the season, but it’s nice to now be able to bet on the fly as well. And it’s not going to slow my handicapping of every game along the way.

Read on for picks on every Week 6 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Last week’s overall record was 7-8-1 to make the season record 39-37-2.

Plays (9-9-3)

Seattle Seahawks +3 vs. Arizona Cardinals Seattle has been net neutral on a per-play basis — gaining an average of 6.6 yards and giving up an average of 6.6 yards— despite playing a slightly above-average schedule. Arizona has been far worse — giving up 5.9 yards per play while gaining only 4.9 yards per play — despite playing a slightly below-average schedule. This number is too rooted in perception coming into the season rather than performance thus far.

New Orleans Saints +2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals were a marginal team that caught fire to reach the Super Bowl last year, and the market can’t accept that it remains a marginal team even after that memorable run. They shouldn’t be laying points on the road to a decent team, a category in which the Saints and their impressive 0.5 net yards per play distinctly belong.

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Miami Dolphins The market is showing too much respect for a Dolphins’ team starting Skylar Thompson at quarterback. The rookie is promising, and a steal as an undrafted free agent, but shouldn’t be expected to keep up with one of the NFL’s better offenses in the Vikings.

Cleveland Browns -2.5 vs. New England Patriots Patriots rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe found a soft spot for his first career start against the league-worst Lions’ defense, but a Browns’ unit getting healthier should provide a stiffer challenge. The Patriots also rank 28th in the NFL in defending the run, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, meaning Browns running back Nick Chubb could be in line for a big day.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 at Pittsburgh Steelers Despite struggling to finish drives, the Tampa Bay offense showed signs of getting it together in last week’s 21-15 win over Atlanta with more than 400 yards and an average of 5.6 yards per play. Buy the Buccaneers at a compressed price because of their early-season injuries while it’s available; this number should be -10 at minimum.

Atlanta Falcons +6 vs. San Francisco 49ers The amount of injuries on all levels of the 49ers’ defense — most notably to five-star edge rushers Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead — should have more of a negative effect on this line. The number was San Francisco -6.5 last week before Bosa went down, and a half-point isn’t enough to account for the player who had been the best defender in the league through four weeks.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 vs. Buffalo Bills The Chiefs closed 2.5-point favorites in the memorable playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium against the Bills — that they won, by the way — in January. Even though their roster has slightly weakened, a five-point swing is too much when they still have quarterback Patrick Mahomes to threaten a beaten-up Bills’ secondary.

Leans (15-18)

Green Bay Packers -7 vs. New York Jets No, the Packers’ offense doesn’t inspire much confidence at the moment but their defense should provide a bump in the road for rising second-year Jets quarterback Zach Wilson. New York’s offensive line has been mediocre and hasn’t faced a pass rush the caliber of Green Bay’s yet as the Packers rate sixth in the NFL in sack rate behind the efforts of edge rushers Rashan Gary and Preston Smith.

Baltimore Ravens -5.5 at New York Giants With both their losses coming in dramatic fashion at the end of games, there’s a parallel universe where the Ravens are undefeated. With all four of their wins coming by extremely narrow margins, there’s a parallel universe where the Giants are winless.

Carolina Panthers +10.5 at Los Angeles Rams These are two of the bottom six teams in the league by expected points added per play. The defending Super Bowl champion Rams deserve a boost for their pedigree, but this large of a boost is excessive.

Denver Broncos +5 at Los Angeles Chargers The Broncos were worth a stab at the opening price of +6.5, but the market has since come to its senses with this line winding up more in place. Denver has been a mess to watch, but their efficiency metrics aren’t nearly as poor as the eye test may hint.

Guesses (15-10)

Washington Commanders +1 at Chicago Bears The much-maligned quality of Thursday Night Football might be hitting a new low this week. Its difficult to trust either one of these deeply-flawed teams.

Indianapolis Colts -2 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars This may contradict my no-playoff bet in the lead-in, but the Colts have too much talent on the roster not to be a little more competitive. If based solely on on-field performance this season, then the wrong team is favored here but the Colts have now gotten three extra days to work on their moribund offense.

Dallas Cowboys +6 at Philadelphia Eagles This rivals Bills at Chiefs as the game of the week, but unfortunately, the line is right where it belongs. Let’s take the underdog solely based on the game expected to be low scoring — with a total of 42 — and therefore making points more valuable.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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