Sunday Sweats: Six wagers to add to your NFL Week 7 betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 22, 2022 | 10:30 a.m.

The reaction to the trade that landed Christian McCaffrey with the San Francisco 49ers is way overblown.

The former Carolina Panther running back is an exceptional player, one who surely gives San Francisco a minor boost when he’s on the field. But seeing future odds at some sports books — albeit more recreational ones that take smaller limits — trim from 20- to 10-to-1 for the 49ers to win the Super Bowl represents a fundamental misunderstanding of how to value players.

No running back more than doubles a team’s chances to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

San Francisco is in a nice spot this week — one I luckily already wagered on at a better price before the McCaffrey news sent the point spread down a bit — but might be a bet-against candidate going forward if the market stays this bullish on it.

Maybe that can even help Sunday Sweats break out of what feels like a never-ending slump. This has been the worst stretch in the history of the weekend betting column with another big losing hit last week but there’s no option other than to keep working to turn it around.

Read below for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200.

Tasty Total (4-3, $140): Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers under 49 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

You know who undoubtedly matters more than McCaffrey? Edge rusher Nick Bosa, who will be back on the field for the 49ers after missing last week with a groin injury. And he’s not the only San Francisco defender expected to return against the Chiefs as their pair of safeties – Jimmie Ward (hamstring) and Talanoa Hufanga (concussion) — both will likely also play. There might not be a better defense in the league than San Francisco’s at full strength, so it’s a hard sell with a total this high. The 49ers also play a slow pace on offense to further make themselves an under team. A half-point was added to this spread after the McCaffrey trade, and even that small of an adjustment is an overreaction. Maybe his arrival wasn’t the reason, but even if that’s the case, it was unnecessary with the total already too high.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (3-3, -$150): Indianapolis Colts +8.5 & New England Patriots -2 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

Wong teasers — where two sides move past the 3 and 7 — have been underperforming this year so I’ve got some anxiety about firing on this one. But it’s hard to find a better option on the board. Colts at Titans, with a total of 42 points, should be one of the lowest scoring games of the week, so getting this many points with either side is an easy take. And the Patriots may close as high as -10 ahead of Monday Night Football hosting the Bears, so striking on them while they’re in the teaser window seems like a smart idea.  

Moneyline Parlay (1-5, -$654): Las Vegas Raiders & Cincinnati Bengals at -121 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$242 to win $200

This might look a little cowardly but neither the Bengals nor the Raiders should be at much of a risk of getting upset. The SuperBook conveniently has market-low prices on both sides with Las Vegas at -300 (i.e. risking $300 to win $100) and Cincinnati at -275. That’s about as much as you can hope for in this category, where I’ve painfully fallen just short week in and week out all year. That’s the reality of betting parlays, though. Falling one leg short repeatedly is no reason to get frustrated; it’s part of the game. Maybe a seemingly safer option like this one can break my funk.   

Player Prop (3-7, -$718): Ja’Marr Chase over 79.5 receiving yards -114 (Boyd Sports)

$228 to win $200

One reason the Falcons shouldn’t be much of a threat to the Bengals is a cluster injury in their secondary. Top cornerback A.J. Terrell (hamstring) will play but is unlikely to be at 100% while fellow former All-Pro Casey Hayward could be out for the year. Atlanta will have its hands full with Chase, whose stock has slipped slightly since the start of the year. Chase broke out last week with seven catches for 132 yards and two touchdowns but it was his first big game since Week 1. It still wasn’t quite enough to get his receiving yards total in the 80s where it belongs and looked like it would be all season going into the year.

Future Finding (0-1, -$50): Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 (Golden Nugget)

$300 to win $2,100

This was always the future side I was targeting to slot alongside a pair of longshot bets from the Western Conference. My plan was to hope the Celtics would start the season slow under first-year head coach Joe Mazzulla and swoop in with a bet as soon as their odds rose slightly. Through two games, it’s become apparent I’m not going to have that luxury. Boston had no trouble dispatching either Philadelphia or Miami, sending their odds shooting downwards the other way. There are only a few sports books with 7-to-1 left, and they won’t be around for long. Act quickly getting money down on what should be the stand-alone favorite for the title.

Non-football Play (2-4, -$300): Los Angeles Lakers -3 vs. Portland Trail Blazers (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

The Lakers are the laughingstock of the league through two games, while the Blazers are one of the cheers. That’s deserved to an extent with the former starting 0-2 to the latter’s 2-0 but the sentiment may have gone too far in the betting market. It’s just two games after all and the Lakers faced what many would consider to be the two best teams in the Western Conference in the Warriors and Clippers. They lost by a total of 20 points and it’s fair to ask if the Blazers really would have done any better. Portland has beaten Phoenix and Sacramento by a total of nine points, which is impressive, sure, but not enough to drastically alter perception on it coming into the season. The Lakers would have probably been a bare minimum 4-point favorite in this spot a week ago before the games started. They should still get their first win of the season here.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 13-23, -$1,932

Weekend betting column year to date: 81-102-1, $2,906.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 423-432-5, $8,852.23 

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Texas to win the Big 12 at +450 ($200 to win $900); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200) 

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or