College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 9 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2022 | 2 a.m.

It’s difficult to imagine a betting season being any more frustrating than this college football one through two months.

On the one hand, I’m living out a dream in this column by sitting 72 games over .500 and hitting picks at better than a 58% rate. On the other, that all feels incredibly empty with the way the top-rated “plays” have been performing.

Another losing record in Week 8 has dropped the record on plays to 45-50 on the year, even as the overall record picking every game soared to 248-176-3 with a 97-56-3 record on leans and 106-70 mark on guesses.

It’s appropriate that I locked in a futures bet on Texas to win the Big 12 in this space three weeks ago because the Longhorns feel like the column’s equivalent on the field. Texas is one of the 10 best teams in the nation by any advanced metric but that means little considering it already has three losses.

The Longhorns were also one of the losing plays last week as they surrendered a double-digit lead to fall 41-34 to Oklahoma State as closing 6.5-point favorites. Texas is thankfully on a bye this week where it’s hopefully regrouping in an attempt to bounce back just like I’ll do with the column.

Read below for picks on every Week 9 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories.

Big Games

Ohio State -15.5 at Penn State, over/under: 61.5. Penn State hasn’t lost by this many points to Ohio State since 2015. Historic trends like that mean next to nothing but this is the same setup as a lot of those meetings with Penn State throwing a great defense and planning to slow the game down against Ohio State’s high-powered offensive attack. Guess: Penn State +15.5.

Florida +22 vs. Georgia in Jacksonville, over/under: 57. Georgia’s stock appears marginally down in the betting market but it’s been sleepwalking for the past month with games against the likes of Missouri and Vanderbilt. Facing archrival Florida out of a bye week should help bring the best out of the Bulldogs. Lean: Georgia -22.

Cincinnati pick’em at UCF, over/under: 55. The Knights are hard to trust given their week-to-week fluctuations, but they’re so much more explosive than the Bearcats, which would be in big trouble if they fall behind. This is also a way for me to lay off some future exposure as I’ve got a big bet on Cincinnati to win the AAC. Play: UCF pick’em.

Kentucky +13 at Tennessee, over/under: 63.5. This number is right by my account and I’ve flip-flopped several times on which team to pick, but it’s worth noting that the books taking larger limits are sitting at -12 with the more recreational shops at -13. That’s a tell that the more informed money is on the Wildcats. Guess: Kentucky +13.

Oklahoma State +2 at Kansas State, over/under: 57.5. Kansas State has been the better team on the year but virtually every significant player on its roster — including its top two quarterbacks — went down with injury in last week’s 38-28 loss to TCU as 3.5-point underdogs. If the majority of them miss the game this week, then Oklahoma State deserves to be favored. Play: Oklahoma State +2.

Michigan State +23 at Michigan, over/under: 55. This number would have been fair a couple weeks ago, but Michigan State appears to have gotten healthier on defense. Michigan also might be inflated coming off its best game of the year, a 41-17 win over Penn State as 7-point favorites. Lean: Michigan State +23.

Pittsburgh +3.5 at North Carolina, over/under: 64. North Carolina can virtually clinch the ACC’s Coastal Division with a victory here. Holding a ticket with that position, the smart move for me would be to sit this game out even if the number wasn’t exactly spot-on as it appears to be. Guess: Pittsburgh +3.5.

Big Plays

Virginia Tech +14 at NC State, over/under: 40. Few players in the country are more important to their team than North Carolina State quarterback Devin Leary, who will now miss the rest of the season. The Wolfpack have already shown how much they struggle to score without him, and therefore, shouldn’t be laying this many points. Play: Virginia Tech +14.

Oklahoma -1.5 at Iowa State, over/under: 55. Iowa State is far better than its 3-4 record. The Cyclones are 14^th in the nation in EPA (expected points added) per play defense and should be able to limit an offensively-dependent Sooners side. Play: Iowa State +1.5.

Arkansas -4 at Auburn, over/under: 62. Arkansas progressed sooner than expected under coach Sam Pittman largely because of defense but it’s really regressed on that side of the ball this season, especially against the run. That could be a problem against running back Tank Bigsby, who’s had the Tigers playing well in covering two of their last three. Play: Auburn +4.

SMU -3 at Tulsa, over/under: 67. SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai may not play after getting hurt in the second half of last week’s 29-27  loss to Cincinnati as 3.5-point underdogs. Without Mordecai, Tulsa should be the favorite, and even if he does play, it could be a close game. Play: Tulsa +3.

North Texas +10 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 69.5. This is a tough spot for North Texas with a second straight road game coming off a taxing 31-27 loss to UTSA as 10-point underdogs. The Mean Green’s secondary hasn’t held up when challenged vertically the way Hilltopper quarterback Austin Reed can throw. Play: Western Kentucky -10.

Northwestern +10 at Iowa, over/under: 37. The Hawkeyes have been terrible in three straight against the spread losses but it’s worth considering the opponents —Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan. Northwestern’s offense is just as bad as Iowa’s much-maligned unit and its defense is mediocre at best. Play: Iowa -10.5.

Coastal Carolina +2 at Marshall, over/under: 55.5. Marshall’s defense is third in nation EPA per play. It should be able to contain quarterback Grayson McCall, and the Chanticleers don’t have much else. Play: Marshall -2.

Other Games

Play: Miami (Ohio) -8.5 at Akron

Play: Old Dominion +4 at Georgia State

Lean: Florida Atlantic +5 vs. UAB

Lean: Arizona State -13.5 at Colorado

Lean: West Virginia +8 vs. TCU

Lean: Louisville +5.5 vs. Wake Forest

Lean: Miami -2.5 at Virginia

Lean: California +18 vs. Oregon

Lean: South Florida +18.5 at Houston

Lean: Stanford +16.5 at UCLA

Lean: Louisiana +1 at Southern Miss

Lean: Ole Miss -2 at Texas A&M

Lean: Middle Tennessee State +2 at UTEP

Lean: South Carolina -5 vs. Missouri

Lean: Rutgers +14.5 at Minnesota

Lean: Connecticut +9 vs. Boston College

Lean: Massachusetts +3 vs. New Mexico State

Guess: Colorado State +28 at Boise State

Guess: San Diego State +9 at Fresno State

Guess: Georgia Tech +23 at Florida State

Guess: Arkansas State +13 vs. South Alabama

Guess: Notre Dame +3 at Syracuse

Guess: Utah -8 at Washington State

Guess: BYU -3 vs. East Carolina

Guess: Wyoming -10.5 at Hawaii

Guess: Arizona +16 vs. USC

Guess: Navy -13.5 vs. Temple

Guess: Texas Tech -2 vs. Baylor

Guess: Eastern Michigan +7.5 vs. Toledo

Guess: Illinois -7.5 at Nebraska

Guess: Louisiana Tech -6.5 at Florida International

Guess: San Jose State -24.5 vs. UNR

Guess: Charlotte +17 at Rice

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or