Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 8 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 27, 2022 | 2 a.m.

No team has seen their divisional odds improve more than the Minnesota Vikings dating back to the start of the NFL season.

The Vikings, which return from their bye week sporting a 5-1 straight-up record, are now -655 (i.e. risking $655 to win $100) to win the NFC North at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. They came into the season with a +250 (i.e. risking $100 to win $250) price to win their first NFC North title since 2017 — a future Talking Points locked in right before the year kicked off.

That’s nearly a 60% climb, with current odds giving Minnesota an 87% chance as opposed to 28% coming into the season. The Buffalo Bills are the most likely division winner by the odds, at -1375 to win the AFC East, but the Vikings are second.

Buffalo came into the season at -225 in divisional odds for an implied 69%, so there’s only so high it could climb. The Vikings’ ascent has as much, if not more, to do with their in-division competition than their hot start.

They’re 2.5 games ahead of the Green Bay Packers (+495) and Chicago Bears (+4475), and four games in front of the once-again-in-ruin Detroit Lions (+4875). The NFC North rivals the AFC South as the lowest-rated group of teams in the NFL by the betting market, which hasn’t been high on Minnesota despite its first-place standing.

The Vikings’ last game was proof of that as they stuck as a -3 favorite at Miami despite the home team starting third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. Minnesota ended up winning 24-16, but the victory didn’t seem to change many opinions as money is flowing in against it once again this week.

The Vikings opened a 4-point favorite over the Arizona Cardinals, but many sports books are already down to -3.5. All of this makes them a fascinating team to watch over the next few weeks — both in how they perform and how the market reacts to it.

Read on for picks on every Week 8 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The overall record now stands at 53-51-2 after going 7-7 last week.

Plays (13-16-2)

Washington Commanders +3 at Indianapolis Colts The Commanders are a hair ahead of the Colts by almost all of the most reliable sets of power ratings including Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings and EPA (expected points added) per play. That means they shouldn’t be this large of an underdog even if they weren’t going with a first-time starting quarterback in Sam Ehlinger.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers As if the Buccaneers’ continued offensive ineptitude isn’t enough, they’re also now seeing their biggest strength — pass defense — cut into with a cluster injury in the secondary. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been trending downward, but should be in line for a bounce-back with at least three Buccaneers’ starting defensive backs expected out.

Los Angeles Rams +2 vs. San Francisco 49ers The 49ers have gone 7-1 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread against the Rams since 2019 but that series history is being overvalued by the betting market. It shouldn’t be predictive going forward, especially not when most of the games have been extremely close and the Rams coming off a bye this time around.

Green Bay Packers +11.5 at Buffalo Bills Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has never been this large of an underdog in his 15-year career as a starter. Buying low isn’t always going to be comfortable, but between Rodgers and a talent-rich defense, it’s hard to believe the Packers’ power rating ever sinking further than this.

Leans (19-23)

Arizona Cardinals +4 at Minnesota Vikings The Vikings were outgained by 1.6 yards per play in the aforementioned victory over the Dolphins — a third straight game where they pulled out a small victory despite being outgained. Maybe they’ll come back from their bye and improve, but if not, some regression is to be expected while Arizona looks headed the other way.  

New Orleans Saints +2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders The Saints had extra time to rest and prepare coming off a 42-34 Thursday Night Football loss where they outgained the Cardinals by 1.6 yards per play but were undone by three turnovers. If they get receivers Michael Thomas and/or Jarvis Landy back to go with Chris Olave, they could create matchup problems for a Raiders’ side playing without cornerback Nate Hobbs.  

Carolina Panthers +5 at Atlanta Falcons Coming into the season, this game was listed as a pick’em. Carolina has lost some key players to injuries and trades since then, but so has Atlanta (not to trade, but to injury) meaning there’s no way this large of an adjustment is justified.

Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Browns lost 23-20 to the Ravens last week despite outgaining them by 2 yards per play. The defeat dropped Cleveland to 1-4 on the year in games decided by three points or less, leaving them much better than their 2-5 straight-up record indicates and undervalued by the betting market.

Houston Texans +2 vs. Tennessee Titans The time has come to sell high on the Titans, as no team has been more fortunate than them with four straight wins by single digits despite being in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. This was a play earlier in the week at +4, and would be again if it can inch back up to a field goal.  

Guesses (21-12)

Miami Dolphins -3 at Detroit Lions The Lions should be able to stay with the Dolphins on paper, but they’ve continually found ways to hurt themselves and still have a long injury report despite having their bye two weeks ago. Laying 3 requires paying -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) but it’s still a better bet than laying 3.5 at the standard -110.  

New England Patriots -1.5 at New York Jets This seems like a get-right spot for the Patriots, even if the number makes it difficult to act on. The Jets have done enough this season to be a small favorite here, but there’s still value in giving some weight to priors coming into the season that would have unanimously labeled the Patriots as the better team.

Philadelphia Eagles -10 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Philadelphia has one of the most explosive offenses in the league, one that should be ready to go full force coming off a bye week. It’s hard to see a Pittsburgh side ranking dead-last in the NFL at 4.8 yards per play keeping up.

Dallas Cowboys -9.5 vs. Chicago Bears This number seems fair assuming Dak Prescott is still at less than 100% with his thumb injury. If Prescott has progressed and gets back to his normal self, however, the Cowboys could reasonably deserve to lay double digits.

Denver Broncos +2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars in London No strong opinion on this one but Denver’s pass defense — specifically its pass defense — will be far and away the best unit on the field at Wembley Stadium. The Broncos rate second in the league defensively by EPA per play.

New York Giants +3 at Seattle Seahawks This number is perfect, but it’s a harder sell to bet against the Giants right now after their four straight covers. New York’s talent level may still be mediocre, but coach Brian Daboll has been one of the best decision-makers and leaders in the NFL this season.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or