Sunday Sweats: Six bets to add to your NFL Week 1 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022 | 2 p.m.

Sports other than football are still in season. It just might be difficult to know based on the scenes at local sports books this weekend.

Everything else is demoted to secondary and personal screens, with college football on Saturday and the NFL on Sunday commanding all the biggest displays.

Talking Points is following suit, and shifting into almost full-football mode too. For the third straight year, Saturday’s Weekend Wagers column is turning into Sunday Sweats for the entire NFL season.

It’s an opportunity to dip into other ways to bet beyond point spreads, all of which are handicapped earlier in the week, and has been quite successful in its first two iterations. Last year’s final Sunday Sweats record finished at 63-62-1 for $1,273.38 in profit, strong but far below 2020’s 67-62-2 for $2,210.43 in profit.

The standard has been set for this season, which will continue on with the same format of at least five different kinds of wagers to add to your NFL card.

Read below for the first Sunday Sweats column of the season. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200. 

Tasty Total (0-0, -$0): Colts at Texans over 45.5 (STN Sports)

$220 to win $200

I really like the Texans in this spot, and to put it in simplistic terms as to the reason why, it’s because I’m relatively bullish on their offense as opposed to relatively bearish on the Colts’ defense. I’m not particularly high on the Colts’ offense either, but the way they emphasized pace with new quarterback Matt Ryan through training camp and the preseason indicates the overs should have value early in the season until the market catches up. Both teams should be able to score, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game winds up in the 50s.   

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (0-0, $0): Vikings +7.5, Chiefs -0.5 and Cowboys +8.5 at +160 (William Hill/Caesars)

$150 to win $240

My first teaser of the year already went down in flames on Thursday night when the Rams were blown out 31-10 to the Bills. But I still want to use the team I initially paired them with, the Vikings, which are the best tease-able side of the week to get at more than a touchdown. I make Minnesota a slight favorite over Green Bay and wouldn’t be surprised if that’s where the line closes. The Cowboys, hosting the Buccaneers, are another classic through-the-3-and-7 teaser side in a game that should be decided by a touchdown or less. To switch things up — this section had always been a two-team teaser in the past — I’ll throw in Kansas City just to win outright at Arizona. The Cardinals, already playing without suspended star receiver DeAndre Hopkins, might have the most impactful injury report of any team in Week 1.

Moneyline Parlay (0-0, $0): Tennessee Titans -240 & Denver Broncos -270 (Circa Sports)

$213 to win $200.51

Here’s a sweat that will last all the way through Monday Night Football. There seems to be some hesitance with the Broncos, but there’s no good reason why. They will be one of the better teams in the NFL, while their Monday night opponent Seattle Seahawks will be one of the worst. This line should close further in the Broncos’ direction. The betting market is even more skeptical about the Titans, which admittedly look guaranteed to see some drop-off from last year when they claimed the AFC’s overall No. 1 seed in the playoffs. But Tennessee should still be able to easily beat the New York Giants, which have significant issues on both sides of the ball.  

Player Prop (0-0, $0): Tom Brady over 274.5 passing yards -120 (BetMGM)

$240 to win $200

Doesn’t it just feel like Brady is going to silence all the noise and put on a vintage performance on Sunday Night Football? That’s not why I’m playing this prop, of course, but it all is pretty easy to envision. This number is just too low, as most projection systems have Brady closer to 300 yards. The Buccaneers’ game against the Cowboys should be close, meaning the visitors should be throwing the ball throughout. There’s more than 20 years’ worth of evidence to support the idea that Brady is going maximize his opportunities in the passing game if they’re available.   

Future Finding (0-0, $0): Minnesota Vikings +250 to win NFC North (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

$300 to win $750

This number will be long gone if the Vikings upset the Packers on Sunday. And, as I’ve already mentioned, I expect the Vikings to upset the Packers on Sunday. Odds on Minnesota to win the NFC North for the first time since 2017 have gotten as low as 2-to-1 elsewhere. That still might be a little high. With the Packers’ loss of Davante Adams and the Vikings’ gain of an offensive-minded coach in Kevin O’Connell, the race between these two teams should be much closer this season than it’s been over the last several seasons.   

Non-football play (0-0, $0): Atlanta Braves -120 at Seattle Mariners (Wynn)

$240 to win $200

The Braves’ Sunday starter, Jake Odorizzi, is mediocre. The Mariners’ Sunday starter, Marco Gonzales, is just plain bad. In a game that should light up the scoreboard with no shortage of runs, I’ll back the team with the better offense and slightly better pitcher. The Braves moved into first place in the National League East over the Mets for the first time this season on Friday and will do everything they can to maintain the spot down the stretch of the season. There’s no worry about them lacking in motivation at a time when that might be a concern with other contenders.   

Sunday Sweats year to date: 0-0, $0

Weekend wagers year to date: 68-78-1, $4,948.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 410-408-4, $10,884.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.