College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 3 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Sept. 13, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Those looking closely enough coming into the season could see the possibility of the Sun Belt surpassing the American Athletic and Mountain West as the best Group of Five “midmajor” conference in college football bubbling. Few could have forecasted it exploding through the surface this soon though.

The Sun Belt has officially arrived on the national radar after a three-pack of big Week 2 upsets — Appalachian State’s 17-14 win at Texas A&M as 17-point underdogs, Marshall’s 26-21 victory at Notre Dame as 20.5-point underdogs and Georgia Southern’s 45-42 triumph at Nebraska as 23.5-point underdogs.

Even if there’s still some dispute whether the Sun Belt has nestled itself in as the sixth-best conference behind the Power Five, there can no longer be any argument that the league’s East division looms as the best Group of Five subset of teams. All three of the aforementioned victors come from the East, where 2020 champion Coastal Carolina and another Power Five slayer in Old Dominion — which beat Virginia Tech in Week 1 — also reside.

Oh, and new addition James Madison ranks fifth in the nation in expected points added per play per cfbgraphs.com. The race for the Sun Belt title is now among the most compelling in the nation, and the future odds reflect how close it should be.

Six teams are listed at 10-to-1 or less including Appalachian State at +235 (i.e. risking $100 to win $235), Marshall at 5-to-1 and Coastal Carolina at 6-to-1. The other three at the top of the odds are from the West with defending champion Louisiana at +415, South Alabama at 7-to-1 and Troy at 9-to-1.

I bet Marshall at 5-to-1 before the season, and I'm surprised the price is still available. It’s worth a bet, especially considering the Thundering Herd get to host Appalachian State on Nov. 12 in what now looks like a major showdown.

I’ll try to keep the winning ways going all the way until then. Week 2 was certainly a success, as I went 31-19-2 (9-6 on plays, 13-4-2 on leans, 9-9 on guesses) against the picking every game to bring the season total to 58-45-2 (14-11 on plays, 26-12-2 on leans and 18-22 on guesses).

Read below for picks on every Week 3 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories.

Big Games

Georgia -24.5 at South Carolina, over/under: 52. Georgia feels like the new Alabama in at least one respect: A bettor can’t confidently wager against it no matter how inflated the point spread appears. Make no mistake, this point spread appears inflated — especially with a team against South Carolina that excels in hidden areas like special teams. Lean: South Carolina +24.5.

Oklahoma -11.5 at Nebraska, over/under: 66.5. The so-called “interim coach bump” seems silly but often pays off in college football. Nebraska should have a more focused effort with Mickey Joseph taking over for the fired Scott Frost. And more importantly, Oklahoma is being given too much credit when it still has a lot of unknowns under new coach Brent Venables. Lean: Nebraska +11.5.

Penn State -3 at Auburn, over/under: 49. The number looks about right when factoring in priors from the preseason, but it’s hard not to be concerned with how Auburn has looked in limited action. Penn State has been more efficient on both sides of the ball despite playing a tougher pair of games, beating and covering against Ohio and Purdue as opposed to Auburn winning but failing to cover against San Jose State and Mercer. Lean: Penn State -3.

BYU +4 at Oregon, over/under: 57.5. It’s a natural reaction to want to back Oregon with BYU coming off a grinding, physical double-overtime win over Baylor last week but this number is too high. The two teams are evenly matched from a personnel perspective with the Cougars possibly even having the upper hand if receivers Puka Nacua and/or Gunner Romney return. Guess: BYU +4.

Mississippi State -2.5 at LSU, over/under: 55. This looks like another ultraclose call, but the situation and roster talent give the Tigers an edge. Mississippi State is playing back-to-back road games after winning at Arizona, while LSU got a glorified bye in a 65-17 win over Southern last week that importantly included frustrated receiver Kayshon Boutte returning to the field. Lean: LSU +2.5.

Michigan State +3.5 at Washington, over/under: 57. Traveling to Seattle from East Lansing, Mich. Is certainly a tough trip, but this appears to be way too big of an adjustment for home-field advantage. Michigan State’s Mel Tucker and Washington’s Kalen DeBoer are two of the better coaches in the nation, but the former has a two-year lead on getting his systems in place. Play: Michigan State +3.5.

Miami +5.5 at Texas A&M, over/under: 48.5. Poor quarterback play doomed the Aggies against the Mountaineers, but there’s no questioning the talent spread throughout the rest of the roster. It’s a talent level Miami has yet, though probably eventually will, reach under new coach Mario Cristobal. With edges in yards per play and success rate, Texas A&M probably didn’t deserve to lose to Appalachian State in the first place and now presents a buy-low opportunity. Play: Texas A&M -5.

Fresno State +13 at USC, over/under: 71.5. Fresno State went on the road to knock off UCLA last year, so it’s not going to have any fear or hesitancy playing at a power-conference in-state school. The Bulldogs also have enough of an explosive offense with quarterback Jake Haener and receiver Josh Kelly that, worst-case scenario, they’ll be gunning for a backdoor cover. Play: Fresno State +13.

Big Plays

Air Force -17 at Wyoming, over/under: 48.5. Air Force has blown out a pair of outmatched opponents to start the year, beating Northern Iowa and Colorado by an average of 31 points and outgaining them by 300 yards. Wyoming is just as outmatched as Northern Iowa and Colorado. Play: Air Force -17.

California +10 at Notre Dame. The price here is discounted with Drew Pyne stepping in for the injured Tyler Buchner as Notre Dame’s quarterback, but the Irish weren’t getting much out of the latter anyway. It’s too early to judge coach Marcus Freeman, but it might not be if he can’t his team its sharpest coming off a major upset loss. Play: Notre Dame -10.

Tulane +16 at Kansas State. Kansas State’s run-first, option-heavy offense is humming, but it’s not going to catch Tulane as off-guard as it did Missouri. Tulane coach Willie Fritz has specialized in a somewhat similar scheme, and it looks like he might have a defense slightly better than his porous units of the last two years. Play: Tulane +16.

North Texas +3 at UNLV. The Mean Green present the first real passing attack the Rebels have seen all year with veteran quarterback Austin Aune. UNLV’s secondary is vulnerable to get picked apart. Play: North Texas +3.

Ole Miss -16 at Georgia Tech. Ole Miss is every bit as talented as Clemson, which closed -24 before blowing out Georgia Tech 41-10. And Rebels coach Lane Kiffin isn’t exactly known for slowing up and showing mercy to opponents. Play: Ole Miss -16.

Pittsburgh -10 at Western Michigan. If the “revenge game” narrative ever held any weight, it would be here after Western Michigan stunned Pittsburgh last year to ultimately hold it out of the College Football Playoff. The Broncos will have the Panthers’ full attention this time around, and even with uncertainty on who will be playing quarterback due to injuries, the latter should have a massive advantage in the trenches. Play: Pittsburgh -10.

San Diego State +21 at Utah. Utah continues to be priced like a juggernaut even though, aside from one stretch last season, it’s proven to not be as strong as advertised. Get in on fading the Utes now because the market is soon to catch up. Play: San Diego State +21.

Other Games

Play: Texas Tech +11 at NC State

Play: Iowa State -17.5 vs. Ohio

Lean: SMU +3.5 at Maryland

Lean: Marshall -17 at Bowling Green

Lean: New Mexico +3 vs. UTEP

Lean: Minnesota -27 vs. Colorado

Lean: Vanderbilt +2 at Northern Illinois

Lean: Iowa -23 vs. UNR

Lean: Wisconsin -37 vs. New Mexico State

Lean: Louisiana -11.5 at Rice

Lean: Virginia -9.5 vs. Old Dominion

Lean: Western Kentucky +6.5 at Indiana

Lean: Baylor -30.5 vs. Texas State

Lean: Georgia Southern +12.5 at UAB

Lean: Rutgers -17.5 at Temple

Lean: Florida State -1.5 at Louisville

Lean: Michigan -46 vs. Connecticut

Guess: Troy +13 at Appalachian State

Guess: South Florida +24.5 at Florida

Guess: Toledo +32 at Ohio State

Guess: Alabama -48 vs. UL Monroe

Guess: Washington State -16 vs. Colorado

Guess: Liberty +16.5 at Wake Forest

Guess: Louisiana Tech +34 at Clemson

Guess: Miami (Ohio) +21.5 vs. Cincinnati

Guess: Syracuse pick’em vs. Purdue

Guess: Texas -11 vs. UTSA

Guess: Charlotte +20 at Georgia State

Guess: UCF -9 at Florida Atlantic

Guess: Memphis -14 vs. Arkansas State

Guess: Kansas +10 at Houston

Guess: South Alabama +15.5 at UCLA

Guess: Eastern Michigan +20 at Arizona State

Guess: Akron +48 at Tennessee

Guess: Buffalo +14 at Coastal Carolina

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or