Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 2 winners against the spread

Colts tie

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Indianapolis Colts cornerback Stephon Gilmore during the second half of an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022, in Houston.

More than half of the field in Circa’s $1,000 buy-in Survivor contest couldn’t last beyond the first week of the NFL season.

The public’s performance in Circa Survivor isn’t always correlated to how sports books make out on a weekly basis, but in this case, it was. The sports books raked cash in during a slate that featured a handful of big upsets.

Favorites and underdogs actually split in going 8-8 against the spread, but five outright upsets occurred with a spread higher than 6. And that doesn’t count a tie between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, which knocked out the largest number of entries in Circa.

A whopping 875 Survivor players picked the Colts to beat the Texans. In total, 3,448 of 6,133 entries (about 56%) were eliminated. The other big losers were the Titans (708 picked them over the Giants in Circa Survivor), 49ers (703 picked them over the Bears), Broncos (569 picked them over the Seahawks) and Bengals (460 picked them over the Steelers).

All of those teams also surely anchored hundreds of moneyline parlays that sank quickly to raise the house’s profits. I luckily didn’t capsize with the majority of my peers. Despite going only 8-8 picking every game against the spread, a 3-1 record on plays made it a winning Week 1.

Let’s all try to win together in Week 2.

Read below for picks on every Week 2 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (3-1)

New York Jets +6.5 at Cleveland Browns The Browns were outgained by nearly a yard per play, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett managed only 4.3 yards per pass attempt, against the lowly Panthers in Week 1. There’s no way an offense that anemic should be laying nearly a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 vs. Minnesota Vikings The Vikings are the flavor of the week after beating the Packers 23-7 as 2-point favorites, but the Eagles were just as impressive in Week 1 while building a 31-14 lead on the Lions as 6-point favorites. Philadelphia allowed Detroit to get back into it and make the score respectable late, but its defensive failings were minor and easy to correct. The Eagles have a more well-rounded roster than the Vikings.

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 vs. Miami Dolphins For all the love heaped on the Dolphins and new coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme, it’s worth pointing out that they scored only one touchdown in a 20-7 win over the Patriots as 3-point favorites. The Ravens kept their offense simple in a 24-9 win over the Jets as 6.5-point favorites, but they’re likely to unveil more wrinkles against enhanced competition.

Detroit Lions -1.5 vs. Washington Commanders Despite Detroit losing in Week 1 and Washington winning, both teams were about equal from an efficiency standpoint with the former stronger offensively and the latter better defensively. Offense is more predictive on a week-to-week basis, and Detroit importantly graded out better coming into the season too.

Leans (2-5)

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 vs. New England Patriots Losing reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt is a hit to the Steelers, but they still have one of the NFL’s better defenses and should be able to get after hobbled Patriots quarterback Mac Jones. Pittsburgh is available at as high as +118 to win outright on the moneyline, which should be considered as it’s mathematically a better bet that taking 2.5 points on the spread.

Los Angeles Chargers +4 at Kansas City Chiefs The Cardinals, which the Chiefs crushed 44-21 as 6-point favorites in Week 1, might have one of the worst defenses in the NFL this season, while the Chargers might have one of the best. The doubtful status of Chargers’ No. 1 receiver Keenan Allen is a concern, but his absence isn’t big enough to bloat a spread that should more fairly sit at 3.

Carolina Panthers +2.5 at New York Giants These are notably the two worst teams in the league by Football Outsiders’ DAVE ratings with the Giants in last by a considerable margin — despite winning in Week 1 largely because of the coaching genius of Brian Daboll. The Panthers make better sense as a two-team, six-point teaser leg at +8.5 given this should be a low-scoring game but taking the points with either side has to be the pick.

Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 at Dallas Cowboys Cooper Rush filled in admirably for the now-injured Dak Prescott a year ago, but the Cowboys’ roster was much more complete last season especially on offense. The Bengals turned it on in the second half of last week’s humbling, mistake-plagued 23-20 loss at Pittsburgh as 7.5-point favorites and should be able to pick up where they left off here.

Atlanta Falcons +10.5 at Los Angeles Rams The Falcons’ offense looked capable behind underrated-when-he’s-healthy quarterback Marcus Mariota in a 27-26 loss to the Saints, while the Rams looked poor all over in a 31-10 loss to the Bills where quarterback Matthew Stafford was clearly not 100%. That’s admittedly toeing the line of overreaction, but more than 10 is a lot of points to work with.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars Houston and Jacksonville are about equally overmatched against Indianapolis, and yet the Texans were getting more than double this number of points against the Colts on the spread a week ago. The Colts’ lackluster 20-20 tie appears to have resulted in them being available at a bargain price.

Las Vegas Raiders -5.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals This opened as low as Las Vegas -2.5, but probably shouldn’t stop moving until it reaches 6. The Cardinals are shorthanded on both sides of the ball while the Raiders played well in every area except turnovers — where they had a -3 margin because of three Derek Carr interceptions — in a 24-19 loss to the Chargers as 3.5-point underdogs.

Guesses (3-2)

Denver Broncos -10 vs. Houston Texans It’s been easy to poke fun at the Broncos in wake of their Nathaniel Hackett-spurred failing on Monday Night Football, but it was still a game where they out-performed Seattle drastically on a per-play basis despite a 17-16 loss. Empower Field at Mile High gives Denver one of the best home-field advantages in football, especially early in the season historically, and should maybe account for an even bigger edge on the point spread.

Seattle Seahawks +9.5 at San Francisco 49ers Wait to see if this spread gets back to 10 before potentially betting the underdog, but anything more than a touchdown might be giving the 49ers too much credit. Their offense is beaten-up, and second-year quarterback Trey Lance still hasn’t shown any indication he’s ready yet after a line of 13-for-28 for 164 yards and an interception in the opener.

Green Bay Packers -10 vs. Chicago Bears The Bears somehow came back to pull out a season-opening 19-10 win over the 49ers as 7.5-point underdogs, but didn’t show enough to escape consideration as the worst team in the league personnel-wise. The Packers might be better at every position group.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Buffalo Bills This spread is fair, but the Titans have at least shown an ability to defend well against the Bills’ offense while beating them in each of the last two seasons. Underrated Titans’ edge-rusher Jeffery Simmons has specifically been a handful and regularly disrupted Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 at New Orleans Saints I have no strong opinion on this game but make the spread closer to Tampa Bay -3. Given that the Buccaneers figure to be the more popular public side, that’s also probably where the number closes.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy