Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 3 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The two biggest collapses of NFL Week 2 crashed right on top of the pick’em and buried any hopes of an overall winning week.

The Ravens looked on their way to an easy cover of -3.5 with a 35-14 fourth-quarter lead over the Dolphins before getting outscored 28-3 the rest of the way for a 42-38 loss. Then the Raiders followed it building a 20-0 lead as a 5.5-point favorites before finding repeated perplexing ways to fall 29-23 in overtime to the Cardinals.

That’s life as far as betting the NFL. It’s never safe to mark a side as a winner until the end of the game.

Luckily for Talking Points, the Ravens were the only “play” that went down for a second straight 3-1 week on top-rated picks to start the season. The Raiders were a “lean,” which coincidentally also finished with the same Week 2 record as Week 1 — 2-5.

That made the record picking every game against the spread 7-9 last week and left the season-long mark at 15-17. I’d prefer to get over .500, obviously, but would gladly trade that wish to keep hitting a high percentage of the plays.

Maybe the big blown leads can help going forward, and work in our favor starting this week.

Read below for picks on every Week 3 game. Picks are separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (6-2)

Denver Broncos +1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Despite all the deserved criticism and mockery coach Nathaniel Hackett and quarterback Russell Wilson have received, the Broncos still rank in the NFL’s top 10 by Football Outsiders’ DAVE ratings and expected points added per play. Hackett and Wilson are more likely to settle in and figure it out, and when that happens, Denver will be scary.

New York Jets +5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals continue to look like the most overvalued team in the NFL, having somehow parlayed a lucky Super Bowl run into a perception that they’re a perennial contender. That doesn’t mean they’re going to continue to lose and fail to cover, but it does mean that paying a premium to back them is weekly among the worst bets on the board.

Houston Texans +3 at Chicago Bears Taking the 3 currently requires laying -119 (i.e. risking $119 to win $100) at best but that’s a better bet mathematically than betting +2.5 at the standard -110 (i.e. risking $110 to win $100). Both teams have lived up to their perception through two weeks as two of the weaker sides in the NFL, meaning this should be a virtual pick’em.

Dallas Cowboys +1.5 at New York Giants This would have been the top play of the week if it stuck at +3, but the Cowboys remain worth a stab as any type of underdog. Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has been mediocre against a pair of middling defenses without star power so it’s worth questioning how he’ll fare against quite possibly the most impactful defensive player in the league, Cowboys do-everything standout Micah Parsons.

Leans (4-10)

Tennessee Titans +2.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders This number was as high as Tennessee -1.5 on last week’s lookahead line before shooting the other way off the Titans’ 41-7 loss to the Bills as 10-point underdogs on Monday Night Football. Those types of violent swings are exactly why teams coming off blowout losses are traditionally profitable wagers in the NFL.

Washington Commanders +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles belong right with the Bills and Chiefs in conversations on the most impressive teams in the NFL so far, but this is an awfully large price to lay on the road on a short week off Monday Night Football. The Commanders came into the year with what looked like a talented defense — though it’s underwhelmed so far — and now ranks in the top 10 offensively at 5.5 yards per play.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at Arizona Cardinals The Rams have covered in five of six games against the Cardinals in the current coaching matchup of Sean McVay vs. Kliff Kingsbury. And most of those games featured more evenly-matched personnel; the Rams have a bigger edge this time around.

Buffalo Bills -5.5 at Miami Dolphins The Bills are a wagon right now, rolling over everyone to the point where they should probably be a touchdown favorite against all but the very best opponents in the NFL. Miami is far from belonging in that group because, as memorable as its comeback win over Baltimore might have been, it’s equally unsustainable as the Dolphins finished with a 1% postgame win expectancy per Football Outsiders.

Indianapolis Colts +6.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs This number would need to get back to 7 to consider elevating it to a play, but it just might happen as the overreactions to these teams’ starts to the season rage. The line on this game was only Chiefs -2.5 coming into the season, so this presents an opportunity to both sell high on the visitors and buy low on the home team.

Atlanta Falcons +2 at Seattle Seahawks Seattle’s adjustment for homefield advantage should be minimized with Atlanta wisely staying in the area to acclimate. And that might have been the only edge the Seahawks held with the Falcons having been more efficient on both offense and defense through two weeks.

New Orleans Saints -2.5 at Carolina Panthers New Orleans hasn’t tapped into its potential yet, but still has all the pieces to emerge as one of the best teams in the NFC. The same can’t be said for Carolina, which has played well from an efficiency standpoint despite an 0-2 start but has one of the lesser overall rosters in the league.

Cleveland Browns -4.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers are too challenged offensively to back confidently at what otherwise looks like a fair point spread. And as solid as Pittsburgh is defensively, stopping the run is not a strength, which is good news for Cleveland running back Nick Chubb.

Guesses (5-5)

Detroit Lions +6 at Minnesota Vikings The opener of Detroit +7 might have been a bargain, but the line has since moved to right where it belongs. The Lions could be dangerous if their defense develops — and it showed flashes of big-play ability in last week’s win over the Commanders — so I’ll back them in a coin-flip spot hoping they continue to discover some untapped potential.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars The best thing to do is hold off until getting the most clarity possible on the situation of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. But this is an educated guess that he’ll play through the rib injury, and as long as he’s on the field, this number seems more likely to get to 7.5 than drop to 6.5.

New England Patriots +3 vs. Baltimore Ravens Both teams are bet-on sides going forward, but neither offers much value this week in a matchup where the spread has settled correctly. I’ll take the points just because they’re more valuable in a game with a low total of over/under 43.5.

Green Bay Packers +1.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tampa Bay’s lockdown defense should be set up for success here, but that can only go so far with the rest of the roster ravaged by injuries and absences at the moment. The Buccaneers could be down their top three receivers, which could be an insurmountable handicap for an offense that’s already struggled.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or