Sunday Sweats: Six wagers to add to your NFL Week 3 betting card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022 | 10:38 a.m.

With the less than 24 hours before the Sunday kickoff of NFL’s Week 3, there’s not a single favorite of 7 points or more on the betting board. This is likely the only time that happens this season.

It should make for some exciting games, if not promising betting opportunities — and not just through the point spreads. Sunday Sweats will continue to look for winners in more exotic betting options after starting the climb back to respectability in Week 2 following a disastrous Week 1.

The column turned a $384 profit (off a 4-3 record) last week, but Week 3 needs to mark the best performance yet.

Read below for this week’s Sunday Sweats that includes bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Check back tomorrow for an additional prop play in the Raiders’ gameday preview piece. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as any other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the assumption of a bet to win $200.

Tasty Total (1-1, -$20): Chiefs at Colts over 50.5 (Circa Sports)

$220 to win $200

This opened two points higher, right where it belongs. I’m struggling to see why it should have shot down through a key number (51) to this current price. Both teams did have games that went under last week, but their offenses should be better in Week 3. The Chargers’ revamped defense gave the Chiefs fits, something that Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has struggled to do over the last few seasons. Las Vegans surely remember when the Chiefs put up 89 total points in a pair of meetings against Bradley’s Raider defenses last year. As for the Colts, they’re likely to try everything to break out of an offensive slump that saw them shut out 24-0 to the Jaguars last week. The Chiefs’ defense is improved, but still not one of the NFL’s better units. Look for something like a 28-24 final score — at minimum.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (0-2, -$450): Broncos +7.5 & Titans +8 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

Stanford-Wong teasers — where a bettor moves both sides through the 3 and 7 among other rules — have gotten crushed this season but are still mathematically the best way to approach this category. So let’s try again. The Broncos are a clear leg as a home team that arguably should be favored over the 49ers in the first place. The second part gets trickier. The Falcons offered great value earlier in the week but they’ve gone from +2 to pick’em to get out of range. That leaves the Titans (+2) against the Raiders, the Patriots (+2.5) against the Ravens or the Panthers (+2) against the Saints as choices at Caesars, which offers the best -120 teaser price in town. I prefer the Titans out of those options as their game against the Raiders should be tightly-contested throughout.

Moneyline Parlay (1-1, $111): Rams, Texans & Jaguars +852 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $852

With so many tightly-lined games, let’s swing for the fences by throwing a couple underdogs into a parlay and aiming for a high payout. The line on the Jaguars, currently +155 on the moneyline, has been crashing all week as it becomes more likely Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert won’t play. It should drop even further when Chase Daniel is officially announced the starter. Anything plus-money is good on the Texans, especially +140 at Caesars, as they might outright be the better team than the Bears. The Rams is another moneyline that looks a little short, at -180, as they have a more complete and healthier roster than the Cardinals.

Player Prop (1-3, -$480): Deebo Samuel under 90.5 rushing + receiving yards -114 (Boyd Sports)

$228 to win $200

The expectation that Jimmy Garoppolo comes in and emerges as the savior of all that’s ailed the 49ers’ offense seems off to me. All their Sunday Night Football numbers across the board look a bit inflated. Their top weapon Samuel had 97 yards last week, but that was against the Seahawks and the Broncos should provide a stiffer defensive challenge in Week 3. Samuel has rushed 12 times in San Francisco’s first two games but there was talk coming into the season of the team tapering down his workload on the ground. The surest way for him to get over this number would be with a relatively heavy share of carries, and that feels unlikely.

Future Finding (0-1, -$50): Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South +300 (BetMGM)

$300 to win $900

Overreacting is dangerous for a gambler early in the NFL season, but so is underreacting. The Jaguars look far and away like the best team in the AFC South. Maybe that doesn’t hold true for the whole year but is there greater than a 25% chance it does? I think so, and that makes this a profitable bet. The only hesitance with a wagering on the Jaguars now is a tough schedule over the next two weeks — at the Chargers and at the Eagles. But the former is suddenly looking much easier with the Herbert situation. If the Jaguars win Sunday — and the above moneyline parlay section is banking on it — then this price may never re-appear for the rest of the season.

Non-football Play (1-1, -$10): Atlanta Braves -115 vs. Washington Nationals (Wynn)

$230 to win $200

The Braves are slumping and potentially ruining a chance to surpass the Mets and win their fifth straight National League East pennant. But no amount of slumping should make them a virtual pick’em against the Phillies with Charlie Morton on the mound against Philadelphia’s Kyle Gibson. The Braves already have the slightly better lineup than the Phillies, and on Sunday they’ll also have a noticeable edge on the mound. Look for this number to climb and close noticeably higher.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 4-9, -$899

Weekend wagers year to date: 72-87-1, $4,049.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 414-417-5, $9,985.93

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); TreVeyon Henderson 50-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy ($100 to win $5,000); Patrick Mahomes to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; South Carolina over 5.5 wins -150 ($450 to win $300); Louisville to win the ACC 40-to-1 ($50 to win $2,000); Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Oregon State over 6 wins -130 ($390 to win $300); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or