College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Week 5 game

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2022 | 2 a.m.

The ACC is ditching the divisional setup starting next season, but the change might be coming one year too late.

This year’s ACC landscape provides a perfect example of why college football as a whole is moving away from divisions. At least the three best, if not the four best, teams in the conference are all stuck in the Atlantic Division.

Any arguments to the contrary took a big hit last week when the Coastal Division teams combined to go 1-6 straight-up, 2-5 against the spread with a spate of embarrassing defeats. Topping the list was the biggest upset in the nation so far, with Middle Tennessee downing Miami 45-31 as 26-point underdogs.

The other supposed Coastal contenders, defending champion Pittsburgh and all-offense, no-defense North Carolina, were hardly any better as the former struggled with Football Championship Subdivision opponent Rhode Island the latter couldn’t stay within single digits of lowly Notre Dame.

Pittsburgh (6-to-1) and Miami (10-to-1) are still the third and fourth choices to win the ACC largely due to their favorable schedule setup in the Coastal.

But the ACC’s deserving two favorites clash Saturday night with Clemson (-135) hosting North Carolina State (+550). A de facto third-place-at-the-moment game between Florida State (10-to-1) and Wake Forest (35-to-1 after an overtime loss to Clemson last week) goes on earlier in the afternoon.

Despite the ACC’s shrewd changes, its days of getting the limelight on a college football Saturday are numbered with the impending expansion of the SEC and Big Ten. That could give Saturday a last-dance feel and make it more enjoyable, even if two of the four sides playing in the two big games should really reconvene in the championship game a couple months from now.

Read below for picks on both those games and every other Week 5 contest. Lines are the best available on the chosen side at publication time in Nevada. Picks are labeled with three separate confidence categories. The record for the season stands at 118-92-2 (22-24 on plays, 47-28-2 on leans and 49-40 on guesses) after a 29-29 (3-7 on plays, 10-8 on leans and 16-14 on guesses) Week 4.

Big Games

Michigan -10.5 at Iowa, over/under: 42.5. Iowa has played a pillow-soft slate of opposing offenses so it’s too early to crown the Hawkeyes’ defense as a vintage unit. It’s also difficult to figure last year’s Big Ten Championship Game where Michigan smashed Iowa 42-3 as a 11.5-point favorites when it had an offense that wasn’t as strong as this year’s unit. Lean: Michigan -10.5.

Kentucky +6.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 54.5. Ole Miss hasn’t seen a defense anywhere near as strong as what Kentucky will provide, while the Wildcats haven’t seen an offense anywhere near as strong as what the Rebels will field. In such situations, it’s better to lean to the latter advantage — especially here when Ole Miss has such an advantage in explosive-play ability. Play: Ole Miss -6.5.

Oklahoma -6 at TCU, over/under: 67.5. A shootout like this should turn into always favors the more talented team. There’s little doubt about which side is the most talented team here, even though Oklahoma struggled finishing off drives in last week’s upset loss to Kansas State. Lean: Oklahoma -6.

Texas Tech +8 at Kansas State, over/under: 57.5. In a pair of games that saw SEC-bound powers topple last week, Kansas State’s upset of Oklahoma was more impressive than Texas Tech’s overtime win against Texas. But that shouldn’t matter here given the Red Raiders’ matchup edges with former Bishop Gorman quarterback Donovan Smith and his band of game-breaking receivers who will test the Wildcats’ green secondary. Play: Texas Tech +8.

Alabama -16.5 at Arkansas, over/under: 60.5. Alabama is a bigger, stronger, faster, healthier version of Arkansas. Get in now because this line is headed more towards three touchdowns. Play: Alabama -16.5.

Oklahoma State +2.5 at Baylor, over/under: 56. The discrepancy between schedules couldn’t be any more drastic, as Baylor has been in repeated bloodbaths while Oklahoma State has enjoyed cakewalks. That could be to the Cowboys’ advantage, though, as they’re undoubtedly the fresher team. Wait for +3, but the Cowboys are the side. Lean: Oklahoma State +2.5.

Wake Forest +6.5 at Florida State, over/under: 66.5. The number is about right, but the situation has to favor Florida State. Wake Forest had a taxing 51-45 overtime loss to Clemson last week as 8-point underdogs while Florida State rested starters in the second half of a 44-14 win over Boston College as 18-point favorites. Lean: Florida State -6.5.

NC State +7 at Clemson, over/under: 42.5. The Wolf Pack have steamrolled everyone since a Week 1 scare against East Carolina. The competition may leave some to be desired, but this is a mostly-healthy veteran team going up against a more banged-up Tigers’ side that they already beat last year. Make sure to get the +7, as the spread is bouncing on and off the key number.  Play: NC State +7.

Big Plays

San Diego State +6 at Boise State, over/under: 39. Boise State should get a lift from new offensive coordinator (and former head coach) Dirk Koetter stepping in to work with raw freshman quarterback Taylen Green. The pair gets a soft landing spot in its first outing as San Diego State’s defense hasn’t lived up to the program’s reputation thus far. Play: Boise State -6.

Miami (Ohio) -1 at Buffalo, over/under: 51. The loss of quarterback Brett Gabbert limits the RedHawks’ offense significantly even though they beat Northwestern 17-14 as 7.5-point underdogs last week. Buffalo is on the rise after quarterback Cole Snyder put up back-to-back big games in a pair of covers against Coastal Carolina and Eastern Michigan. Play: Buffalo +1.

Virginia Tech +8.5 at North Carolina, over/under: 51.5. The Tar Heels’ offense started slow in a loss to Notre Dame last week but has otherwise been unstoppable all season. Virginia Tech has looked like one of the lesser teams in the ACC all year despite having not encountered an opponent with as near as many athletes as North Carolina will boast. Play: North Carolina -8.5.

Central Michigan +8 at Toledo, over/under: 59. Whoever made Toledo’s schedule really did the Rockets a disservice with the assignment to open MAC Conference play after back-to-back road games against big, physical Ohio State and San Diego State teams. From a talent perspective, this might be the MAC’s two best teams — meaning this many points is unnecessary. Play: Central Michigan +8.

Texas A&M +3.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 45.5. Mississippi State’s offense is highly efficient behind quarterback Will Rogers. Texas A&M’s is the opposite; the Aggies shouldn’t be able to keep up on the scoreboard. Play: Mississippi State -3.5.

South Alabama -9 at Louisiana, over/under: 49.5. The market hasn’t quite caught up to how much the Ragin’ Cajuns have fallen in going from coach Billy Napier to Michael Desormeaux. It also hasn’t caught quite up to how well South Alabama is playing after brining in a slew of transfers and offensive coordinator Major Applewhite. Play: South Alabama -9.

East Carolina -8 at South Florida, over/under: 59. Buy low on the Pirates, which were shocked in a 23-20 overtime loss to Navy as 16-point favorites last week. Star running back Keaton Mitchell missed most of the game but is expected back against an outmanned South Florida side. Play: East Carolina -8.

West Virginia +9.5 at Texas, over/under: 62. The Longhorns hold edges all over the roster regardless of who’s playing quarterback for them. It’s a bonus if that ends up being Quinn Ewers, who was reportedly close to returning last week.  Play: Texas -9.5.

Other Games

Play: New Mexico +14.5 vs. UNLV

Play: UTEP -2.5 at Charlotte

Play: LSU -8.5 at Auburn

Lean: Minnesota -10.5 vs. Purdue

Lean: Tulsa +10 vs. Cincinnati

Lean: San Jose State -2 at Wyoming

Lean: Georgia Tech +24 at Pittsburgh

Lean: Air Force -15 vs. Navy

Lean: Connecticut +23.5 vs. Fresno State

Lean: Colorado +17.5 at Arizona

Lean: Louisville -15 at Boston College

Lean: Northwestern +26 at Penn State

Lean: Middle Tennessee +4 vs. UTSA

Lean: Wisconsin -7 vs. Illinois

Lean: Kent State -10 vs. Ohio

Lean: Georgia Southern +10 at Coastal Carolina

Lean: Stanford +16.5 at Oregon

Lean: SMU +3.5 at UCF

Lean: Akron +7 vs. Bowling Green

Lean: Kansas +3.5 vs. Iowa State

Lean: Ball State +3.5 vs. Northern Illinois

Lean: Tulane +2.5 at Houston

Guess: UL Monroe +8 at Arkansas State

Guess: Florida Atlantic -3 at North Texas

Guess: Georgia -27 at Missouri

Guess: Utah -10.5 vs. Oregon State

Guess: Troy +6 at Western Kentucky

Guess: Maryland -6.5 vs. Michigan State

Guess: Army -7.5 vs. Georgia State

Guess: Memphis -19 vs. Temple

Guess: Utah State +24.5 at BYU

Guess: Virginia +2.5 at Duke

Guess: Arizona State +26 at USC

Guess: California +4.5 at Washington State

Guess: Washington -3.5 at UCLA

Guess: Ohio State -40 vs. Rutgers

Guess: UMass +20 at Eastern Michigan

Guess: Texas State +22.5 at James Madison

Guess: New Mexico State -14 vs. Florida International

Guess: Nebraska -5 vs. Indiana

Guess: Liberty -1.5 at Old Dominion

Guess: Rice +10 vs. UAB

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or