Sunday Sweats: Seven bets to add to your NFL Week 18 card

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023 | 2 a.m.

One of Sunday Sweats’ two under plays last week felt like a bad beat. The other was a bad call.

I rung in the New Year’s with a winning column but it could have been so much better if I didn’t whiff on the totals’ category. Taking under 63 in the College Football Playoff semifinal between Georgia and Ohio State turned out embarrassing with a final score of 42-41 in favor of the Bulldogs on Saturday night.

But I was in position to get some of the losses back Sunday morning — until I wasn’t. The Patriots and Dolphins combined to score only 21 points through the first 40 minutes of the game to have live totals dipping into the low 30s.

But then a Patriots’ pick-six and a Dolphins’ garbage-time drive contributed to 24 points over the final 20 minutes to make for a 23-21 final score that edged over the 41.5 total.

All the momentum I had built in recent weeks by getting the totals column clear into the black is now gone. It’s no big deal, though, as Sunday Sweats is still up a more-than-comfortable amount on the year.

I’m out to build the tally even higher with the brief time we have left in the football season.

Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats with seven bets in six different categories with individual records attached. The Weekly Raiders’ prop, as well as other plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the standard being a bet to win $200 unless otherwise noted.

Tasty Total (9-10, -$240): New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills under 43.5 (STN Sports)

$165 to win $150

Let’s try again. With a great defense, horrific offense and plodding pace, the Patriots are an under team through and through. They’re only 9-7 to the under on the year but several of their games that have gone over had no business featuring so many points. The first game between these teams finished 24-10 in favor of Buffalo, and that should have been enough to drag the total in the more-pivotal rematch to around 40. Part of the reason that didn’t happen is because Buffalo has an uncharacteristically clear forecast for early January, but weather may not matter anyway. The Patriots’ offense will find it difficult to score as usual, and their defense should be able to stifle a divisional rival to some degree.

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (9-8, $210): Cleveland Browns +8.5 & Kansas City Chiefs -3 at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$180 to win $150

Plan foiled. I personally bet, and anticipated, pairing the Browns with the Vikings -2.5. But Minnesota went from -7.5 to -5.5 since the time I started working on this column, pushing it out of teaser range and making it evident that I didn’t make a good wager in the first place. Whoops. The Browns are still safe through three and seven against a low-scoring Steelers’ team but the difficulty comes in finding another leg to add. It’s too bad Kansas City isn’t still -7.5 or even -8.5 like it was early in the week, but -9 will have to be good enough for our purposes. The Chiefs have Super Bowl aspirations, and a team with Super Bowl aspirations should be able to beat a weakened Raiders’ team by a field goal to lock up the No. 1 seed.

Moneyline Parlay (6-10, $181.16): Miami Dolphins & Georgia Bulldogs -102 (South Point)

$204 to win $200.73

South Point has the lowest prices available in town on two favorites that are already too short. Miami coach Mike McDaniel should be able to scheme up a strong enough game plan to beat the Jets with the Dolphins’ playoff life on the line, even if they are playing under third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. They’re a bargain at -165. Georgia meanwhile should be closer to -500 ahead of Monday night’s College Football Playoff championship game in a matchup with TCU where it holds all the advantages on paper. South Point’s odds of -425 is just not enough. McDaniel may have manifested this one with a funny moment earlier in the season. I don't see either team losing.

Player Prop (15-17, -$366): Josh Dobbs under 0.5 touchdown passes +190 (BetMGM)

$150 to win $285

This is an outrageously high price for a quarterback who wasn’t even on an active NFL roster two weeks ago. The former Tennessee Volunteer was on the Detroit Lions’ practice squad before the Titans claimed him out of desperation right before Christmas. It’s looked like a decent move so far as Dobbs was competent in throwing for 232 yards and a touchdown in a loss to the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football last week. But one game doesn’t mean he’s ready to lead Tennessee to an AFC South divisional title. The Titans will lean on running back Derrick Henry for that, as Dobbs’ pass attempts should drop drastically in tonight’s decisive game at Jacksonville. Will he throw a touchdown pass? More than likely, yes, but there’s no way it's a near 70% likelihood as this line implies.

Player Prop (15-17, -$366): Allen Lazard under 3.5 receptions +125 (Boyd Sports)

$200 to win $250

One prop for Saturday Night Football, one prop for Sunday Night Football. Why not? This is a sell-high on the Packers’ veteran receiver as he’s come alive with three of his better games this season in the past month. But the Lions’ pass defense is much improved and Lazard will have more opportunities for targets in the final game of the regular season. Rookie sensation Christian Watson was ill last week but should be back to full health against the Lions. Detroit’s biggest weakness is also in the run game so look for Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to get a lot of work. Lazard should have one of his more typical statistic lines, something like three catches for 50 yards, to finish off the year.

Future Finding (3-10, $590): Boston Celtics to win the Atlantic Division -220 (Caesars/William Hill)

$660 to win $300

Buy the dip. The Celtics were as high as -800 to win the division a couple weeks ago, but a relative slide juxtaposed with both the Nets and 76ers coming on has shot the price way down. Too far down. Boston is still the best team in the NBA by any metric, and it’s not close. I have a bet on the Celtics to win the NBA Finals from earlier in the year, but bemoaned not getting more exposure on them in the column. This is a great way to do so, at least for those who aren’t too risk-averse to lay a big price. There’s no disputing this a chalky play, but it’s chalky play with huge expected value. Get it now before the number climbs back up.

Nonfootball Play (13-6, $1,390): Baylor -6 vs. Kansas State (Caesars/William Hill)

$220 to win $200

The Wildcats had one of the most outrageous offensive games in Big 12 history their last time out, shooting 60% from the floor to upset Texas 116-103. That’s not going to last. Baylor is actually the more dangerous offensive team in this matchup, especially with sharpshooter L.J. Cryer returning to the lineup. The Bears have started 0-2 in Big 12 play and are therefore desperate to get a victory. This a terrific spot for them to do so as the Ferrell Center will be the toughest place the Wildcats have played so far this season. This number should close at Baylor -7.5 minimum.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 55-61, $1,765.16

Weekend betting column year to date: 125-143-1, $5,558.74 

Weekend betting column all-time: 467-474-5, $12,404.47 

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); CeeDee Lamb 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in receiving yards; Las Vegas Raiders under 8.5 wins +140 ($200 to win $280); New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South +360 ($300 to win $1,080); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North +250 ($300 to win $750); Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South at +300 (risking $300 to win $900); Los Angeles Rams NOT to win the NFC West +145 ($200 to win $290); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Indianapolis Colts to miss the playoffs at -110 ($220 to win $200); Miami Dolphins to miss the playoffs at +140 ($200 to win $280) ; Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs at -135 ($270 to win $200); Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200); Nick Chubb to win NFL rushing title at 5-to-1 ($240 to win $1,200); Derrick Henry to win NFL rushing title at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200); Micah Parsons to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at -110 ($275 to win $250); Luka Doncic to win NBA MVP at 4-to-1 ($450 to win $1,800); Cameron Young to win Sentry Tournament of Champions at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or