Vegas pick’em: NFL conference title winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Jan. 26, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The competition between the final four teams to win the Super Bowl has never been tighter according to the betting odds.

ESPN Stats & Information reports that this season is the first time in at least 45 years that not a single one of the teams in the semifinal matchups is below +200 (i.e. risking $100 to win $200) to win the Super Bowl. And none of them are really even close.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has the Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles as the current co-favorites at +260 with their opponents on Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, at +280 and +320, respectively.

The lack of separation between the teams is partially because there are no interlopers that made a surprise run through the playoffs this year; these were a consensus four of the five best teams in the NFL down the stretch of the season.

But the biggest reason for the compressed odds is Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ high ankle sprain. Kansas City was set to be the short shot before the presumed MVP Mahomes got injured last week to call his effectiveness into question going forward.

Read below to find out how I’m dealing with Mahomes’ injury in my handicap for Bengals at Chiefs as well as a breakdown of 49ers at Eagles. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time. The overall record for the year now stands at 148-127-8 after going 1-3 last week.

Plays (40-36-7)

Kansas City Chiefs +1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals The NFL season started with too many people doubting Patrick Mahomes, hence why I was able to lock in a 10-to-1 bet on the Chiefs quarterback to win the MVP. And now it might be ending the same way. There’s no reason this Chiefs’ team with Mahomes behind center, under any circumstances, should be a home underdog to the Bengals.

The only thing that would justify this number would be if Chad Henne was starting in Mahomes' place, and with one practice already completed this week, it’s safe to say that’s not happening. Mahomes was still better than the vast majority of NFL quarterbacks in the second half of last week’s 27-20 victory over the Jaguars as 9-point favorites on one leg. With a week of world-class treatment and time for his offensive-gameplan wiz in coach Andy Reid to scheme, Mahomes will certainly be in a better position this Sunday.

Cincinnati has been terrific throughout its 10-game winning streak but this feels like a paying a premium coming off its best performance of the year, last week’s 27-10 victory over Buffalo as 6-point underdogs. Kansas City and Buffalo were neck-in-neck as the top power-rated team all year, so before the Bills' game, the Bengals were shaping up to be a similar sized underdog at the Chiefs.

Kansas City deserves to be downgraded some because of Mahomes’ expected limited mobility, but three points is much more reasonable than seven points. I make the spread Chiefs -3, meaning there’s tremendous value in getting them as an underdog on their home field.

Leans (54-48-1)

San Francisco 49ers +2.5 at Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles have been better than any team in the NFL in dispatching overmatched opponents. Now it’s time to see what they do when they proverbially run into someone their own size.

Philadelphia had the weakest schedule in the NFL this season, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings, though it’s worth noting that San Francisco was only percentage points ahead of it in 31^st place. But San Francisco was the more efficient team no matter what metric is employed — point differential (+173 to +133), DVOA (2^nd to 3^rd) or expected points added per play (1^st to 3^rd).

The 49ers’ defense, which ranks first in the NFL in giving up only 3.4 yards per rush attempt, looks uniquely equipped to slow the Eagles’ run-heavy offense. Before he was hurt late in the season, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts had surpassed Mahomes as the MVP favorite. The third-year quarterback will need to prove he was worthy of that distinction here as it seems unlikely the Eagles reach their second Super Bowl in six years without him having a big day through the air.

Hurts is easier to trust than 49ers rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, who’s made a handful of terrific throws but also been fortunate to benefit from a handful of dropped interceptions and a conservative gameplan in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Aside from a second-half breakout against defensively-challenged Seattle in the wild-card round, San Francisco’s offense has looked rather pedestrian in the postseason.

Philadelphia’s defense and its penchant for pressure without blitzing should frustrate Purdy. Combine that with homefield advantage and Philadelphia should be a favorite here. But I couldn’t get higher than Eagles -2. San Francisco is a play in the off-chance the market gets to +3, but in the meantime, +2.5 represents the slimmest of values.

Guesses (54-43)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or