NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the South Region

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Tuesday, March 14, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Updated Wednesday, March 15, 2023 | 10:57 a.m.

Sports books’ highest totaled game of this year’s NCAA Tournament will likely come in the South Regional Final if the bracket plays out according to the seeded expectation.

No. 1 seed Alabama and No. 2 seed Arizona play at faster paces than any other side currently in the 64-team field. Another member of the South Region, No. 16 seed Southeast Missouri State, would actually push Arizona to third in tempo while leaving Alabama in first if it defeats Texas A&M Corpus-Christi in this afternoon’s First Four game in Dayton, Ohio.

From top to bottom, offensive firepower resides in the South this year. Alabama vs. Arizona has the chance to be the most thrilling showdown of the tournament, but it’s not the only way the South could deliver a high-flying affair for the right to reach the Final Four in two weeks.

No. 3 seed Baylor and No. 6 seed Creighton may not play as fast as Alabama or Arizona, despite somewhat of a reputation to the contrary, but they still have two of the better offenses in the country. Both Baylor were ranked in the top 10 of the preseason Associated Press poll — No. 5 and No. 10, respectively — to help illustrate just how much talent is contained in this set of teams.

Alabama might be the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed, but it didn’t receive the easiest region from a power-rating perspective. The Crimson Tide’s +160 (i.e. risking $100 to win $160) price to reach the Final Four is the second-lowest in the tournament at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, behind Houston’s +110 in the Midwest Region.

They will only have to face one of Arizona, Baylor or Creighton maximum, of course, but could get tested before that.

No. 4 seed Virginia and No. 5 seed San Diego State break from the trend of offensive steamrollers but play a more deliberate, defensive style that could conceivably give Alabama trouble in a Sweet 16 matchup.

That is, if the latter can get past potential darling No. 12 seed Charleston, which fits more appropriately with the overall theme of the region. The Cougars rank fifth among the 68 teams to make the tournament in tempo, giving the South every team in the top five outside of East Region No. 5 seed Memphis, which sits in fourth.

There shouldn’t be much lack of excitement watching the South Region games, which is what makes it a great place to start in the 12^th annual NCAA Tournament by the odds.

Over the next two days, Talking Points will post previews on every region with picks on every first-round game. Selections will follow on every game throughout the tournament so stay tuned and keep checking back.

Find a handicap of every South Region matchup below. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side with picks listed in rough order of confidence. Last year’s record picking every game was 36-29 (13-7 on plays, 11-12 on leans, 12-10 on guesses).

No. 7 seed Missouri +1 vs. No. 10 seed Utah State Missouri will try to speed up the game and overwhelm Utah State with its athleticism, but the Aggies are used to that. It was a common gameplan against them in this year’s improved Mountain West Conference, and they prevailed anyway. Utah State has one of the nation’s best against the spread records at 21-12 and has been more reliable than Missouri on a game-to-game basis. Play: Utah State -1.

No. 16 seed Texas A&M Corpus-Christi -4 vs. No. 16 seed Southeast Missouri State The Islanders have been the better team on the year as a whole, but lost Southland Conference Player of the Year Terrion Murdix for the season in their conference tournament. That’s a big loss, especially with the Redhawks having improved a previously vulnerable defense down the stretch. Corpus-Christi already had turnover problems that may now be exacerbated without Murdix. Play: Southeast Missouri State +4.

No. 6 seed Creighton -5 vs. No. 11 seed N.C. State Creighton’s ceiling is significantly higher than N.C. State’s considering it often has five big-time scorers on the field at the same time. And, if that weren’t enough, the Blue Jays also play a more efficient style than the Wolfpack, which can become too bogged down with midrange shots. Creighton should be at least a 6-point favorite here. Play: Creighton -5.

No. 5 San Diego State -5 vs. No. 12 seed Charleston The Cougars look set to be a somewhat trendy upset pick as a fast-paced offensive team that went on a 20-game win streak at one point this season, and perhaps they would have been dangerous with the right draw. But this is not the right draw. The only team Charleston faced with a similar profile to San Diego State’s combination of experience and talent was North Carolina, and they lost 102-86. Lean: San Diego State -5.

No. 4 seed Virginia -5.5 vs. No. 13 seed Furman Forward Ben Vander Plas wasn’t a star for Virginia, but he was a starter before going down with a broken hand prior to the ACC Tournament. His absence will mean something considering Virginia is already undersized and now tasked with patrolling the paint against a Furman team that leads the nation in two-point field goal percentage. The number is about right, but Furman forward Jalen Slawson looks poised for a big game where his team could threaten for an upset. Lean: Furman +5.5.

No. 3 seed Baylor -11.5 vs. No. 14 seed UC Santa Barbara UC Santa Barbara won’t be scared of getting into a shootout with Baylor, and while that could be dangerous given the latter’s talent edge, the underdog isn’t going to fold. The Gauchos are too experienced, if not too skilled in the backcourt with Ajay Mitchell and Josh Pierre-Louis. The Bears should win, but at worst, a backdoor cover may be in the cards. Lean: UC Santa Barbara +11.5.

No. 1 seed Alabama -24 vs. No. 16 seed Texas A&M Corpus-Christi This shapes up as the biggest mismatch of the tournament. In the past, that would have meant a line of 30 points or higher. Mid-major programs like Corpus-Christi have certainly cut into the gap in recent years but arguably not by this much. Alabama won seven games this season by at least 24 points, and they all arguably came against teams stronger than Corpus-Christi. The Islanders are also still playing without their best player in Murdix. Lean: Alabama -24.

No. 8 seed West Virginia -2 vs. No. 9 seed Maryland This is a pretty evenly matched game between two power conference teams who could absolutely put a scare into No. 1 overall seed Alabama, their second-round opponent, on a good day. But Maryland is too prone to offensive outages and has seen its efficiency plummet all year away from its home court. A versatile pair of veterans in Tre Mitchell and Erik Stevenson give the Mountaineers an explosive element that the Terrapins lack. Guess: West Virginia -2.

No. 2 seed Arizona -14 vs. No. 15 seed Princeton Arizona doesn’t seem to be getting as much Final Four buzz as it deserves given the way it can create matchup problems against any opponent with its frontcourt of Azuolas Tubelis and Oumar Ballo. But certainly there should be better spots to take advantage of the Wildcats’ undervalued status later in the tournament. This number looks just about right, as Princeton is sure to slow the game to a crawl in an attempt to frustrate — if not put a scare into — Arizona. Guess: Arizona -14.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or