NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday’s round of 32 games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 18, 2023 | 2 a.m.

The late money doesn’t always cash.

One of the sides that saw their betting odds steam up the most on the opening day of the NCAA Tournament was South Region No. 2 seed Arizona. After opening as low as a 13.5-point favorite over No. 15 seed Princeton, the Wildcats closed as high as -15.5 in Las Vegas after a late flurry of action.

But they never once were ahead of the Tigers by that much and, of course, ultimately lost 59-55. Arizona became the 10^th No. 2 seed in the history of the tournament to lose to a No. 15 seed.

A No. 15 seed has now beaten the No. 2 seed in three straight tournaments for the first time in history. Although Princeton’s coup technically wasn’t as improbable as St. Peter’s knocking off Kentucky last year as 18-point underdogs, it could wind up remembered just as fondly — especially if the Tigers can extend their run like the Peacocks did all the way to last year’s Elite Eight.

The first step comes at 3:10 p.m. today in Sacramento, Calif. when Princeton takes on No. 7 seed Missouri as a 6.5-point favorite. I’ll handicap that game, as well as the rest of the schedule, below.

Read on for picks of every round of 32 game scheduled for Saturday, listed in rough order of confidence and labeled in one of three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas. The record through the first two days of games stands at 13-22-1 (5-5-1 on plays, 4-9 on leans and 4-8 on guesses).

No. 4 seed Tennessee +4 vs. No. 5 seed Duke The Volunteers’ offense has looked out of sorts in their last two games without point guard Zakai Zeigler, but before that, they were managing just fine running more offense through star guard Santiago Vescovi. Making them this large of an underdog feels unreasonable. At any other point of the last four months, Tennessee would have been this size of a favorite, not an underdog, against Duke. Play: Tennessee +4

No. 4 seed San Diego State -5.5 vs. No. 12 seed Furman J.P. Pegues’ quick-trigger 3-pointer to complete Furman’s 68-67 upset victory over Virginia will be played for years to come, but the circumstances that led to the latter blowing a 12-point second-half lead were at times unbelievable. It’s highly unlikely the Paladins can benefit from so many breaks in a second straight game, especially against a team as strong as San Diego State. The Aztecs have graded out higher than the Cavaliers for the vast majority of the year and should therefore be laying more points against Furman — not the same amount Virginia did Thursday. Play: San Diego State -5.5.

No. 2 seed UCLA -8 vs. No. 7 seed Northwestern UCLA is putting together a pretty compelling case that it’s relatively unaffected by its injuries with two out of three strong performances since Jaylen Clark went down. It’s still too early to say definitively, though. This line would be right with both teams at full strength, but despite how well they’ve played, the Bruins are not at full strength. Northwestern deserves some respect for being underrated in its own right considering the Wildcats rate eighth in the nation by ShotQuality’s team-ranking metric, and dispatched Boise State as 2-point favorites more thoroughly than the 75-67 final score indicated on Thursday. Play: Northwestern +8.

No. 1 seed Houston -5 vs. No. 9 seed Auburn The Tigers played one of their best games of the year in the round of 64 by pouring in points and relentlessly attacking Iowa en route to a 69-62 victory as 2-point favorites. That’s not going work against Houston, regardless of who may or may not be injured. Both Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead being banged up is a concern, but they’re likely to give it a go and the Cougars have one of the nation’s best defenses to fall back on anyway. Most analytical ranking systems have tabbed Houston as the best team all season, and the chance to buy low on it after one subpar tournament performance — a 63-52 victory over Northern Kentucky as 19.5-point favorites — is too good to pass up. Lean: Houston -5.

No. 7 seed Missouri -6.5 vs. No. 15 seed Princeton The Princeton backcourt led by point guard Matt Allocco really bothered Arizona’s ball-handlers throughout the game. That should be more difficult to replicate against a Missouri side that’s been sure-handed and versatile, oftentimes playing a positionless style, throughout the year. Missouri already outpaced one less-athletic opponent, beating Utah State 80-74 as 1.5-point underdogs, so it should have the formula down to deal with Princeton. Lean: Missouri -6.5.

No. 2 seed Texas -5 vs. No. 10 seed Penn State Point guard Jalen Pickett can make up for a lot for the Nittany Lions, but they’re outgunned at too many other positions in this matchup. The Longhorns rate as the third-best team in the nation since the start of March by barttorvik.com and have covered in six straight games. Penn State has covered in five straight of its own, but none of the opponents had quite the degree of complementary talent that Texas presents. Lean: Texas -5.

No. 1 seed Alabama -9 vs. No. 9 seed Maryland As if injuries weren’t playing enough of a role this tournament, and especially on this Saturday slate, now the top NBA prospect in college basketball is dealing with a groin issue. Brandon Miller, the controversial star because of his involvement in a murder trial of a former teammate, scored no points in Alabama’s non-cover 96-75 win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi as 24-point favorites. Miller’s status might be enough to outweigh the Crimson Tide’s semi-home court advantage in Birmingham, Ala. and leave this line a tad too high. Guess: Maryland +9.

No. 1 seed Kansas -3.5 vs. No. 8 seed Arkansas This is the exact right number as Arkansas has almost everything necessary to knock off Kansas led by its roster of five-star recruits. But it’s also hard to ignore that Kansas has come through in these situations all year, hence its record 17 Quad 1 (teams ranked in the top 30) victories. The absence of Kansas coach Bill Self as he recovers from a medical operation is a big concern though. There are too many variables to really get involved here. Guess: Kansas -3.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or