NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, March 19, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Two down, two to go.

No. 2 seed UCLA and No. 8 seed Arkansas became the first teams to ever book an NCAA Tournament trip to Las Vegas with round of 32 victories on Saturday. No. 3 seed Gonzaga, No. 4 seed Connecticut, No. 5 seed St. Mary’s and No. 6 seed TCU all look to join them on Sunday.

UConn and St. Mary’s face off for the first spot at 3:10 p.m. on TNT with the Huskies currently a 3.5-point favorite. Gonzaga and TCU do the honors of bidding farewell to the busiest betting weekend of the nation when they tip off at 6:40 p.m. on TBS with the Zags currently a 4.5-point favorite.

The second weekend of the tournament is typically quieter in town with betting handle dropping off, but that won’t be the case this year. With four fanbases coming to town, if not four powerhouse fanbases, money will be flying leading up to Thursday night’s years-in-the-making event at T-Mobile Arena.

Let’s take one last opportunity to boost our tournament bankrolls before then.

Read below for picks on all eight of Sunday’s round of 32 games. Picks are listed in rough order of confidence, and labeled with one of three separate confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas. The record picking every tournament game so far stands at 17-25-2 (8-5-1 on plays, 5-10-1 on leans, 4-10 on guesses).

No. 3 seed Kansas State -2.5 vs. No. 6 seed Kentucky Last season’s National Player of the Year, Oscar Tshiebwe was on one in Kentucky’s tournament-opening 61-53 victory over Providence as 4-point favorites. The big man gobbled up 25 boards including reaching double-digits in both offensive and defensive rebounds. Kansas State isn’t a strong rebounding team to begin with, and now must take on arguably the nation’s best team on the glass. Kentucky has been a slight letdown overall on the year, but it has the talent around Tshiebwe to reach a level few teams in the nation can match — certainly not Kansas State. Play: Kentucky -2.5.

No. 3 seed Gonzaga -4.5 vs. No. 6 seed TCU The Horned Frogs would have a real shot at knocking off the Bulldogs at full strength, but they’re increasingly looking like they’re at less than full strength. With big man Eddie Lampkin having already left the team, TCU is also now dealing with an injury to star guard Mike Miles who gutted through in a 72-70 victory over Arizona State as 4.5-point favorites. That’s a big problem in what figures to be an up-and-down game. When healthy, TCU can outpace almost any team in the nation in transition — except perhaps Gonzaga. Lean: Gonzaga -4.5.

No. 3 seed Xavier -5 vs. No. 11 seed Pittsburgh Playing three games in five days is a challenge for even the best teams. Pittsburgh is not one of the best teams. The Panthers are on a strong run offensively, but the Musketeers can more than match their firepower. In many ways, Xavier just looks like an upgraded version of Pittsburgh with sharpshooting and size leading the way. Lean: Xavier -5.

No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic -15 vs. No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson Florida Atlantic -12 might have been one of the worst opening lines of the tournament on Friday night, but the odds have started shifting closer to where they belong. The Owls’ experienced backcourt is not going to be flustered by the Knights’ pressure in the same way the Boilermakers were in Fairleigh Dickinson’s historic 63-58 upset as 23-point underdogs. Much unlike their last two performances, the Knights have struggled on the defensive end for the year. Florida Atlantic should be able to take advantage. Lean: Florida Atlantic -15.

No. 4 seed Connecticut -3.5 vs. No. 5 seed St. Mary’s UConn looks like the best team in the nation when they get center Adama Sanogo unlocked like it did in the second half of Friday’s 87-63 pasting of Iona as 9.5-point favorites. But they’ve also looked quite ordinary against deliberate, fundamentally-sound opponents all year and the Gaels may fit the profile better than any team in the country. It’s going to come down to what wins out between brute strength and machinelike execution in Albany, N.Y. Lean: UConn -3.5.

No. 3 seed Marquette -2.5 vs. No. 7 seed Michigan State The Spartans are bigger, strong, more experienced and stingier defensively. In other words, this pairing should be ideal for coach Tom Izzo implementing his preferred dirtied-up style to success. There are no bargains available on Michigan State, though. Although matchup factors might play in the Spartans’ favor, it’s difficult to make a spread any shorter than this based on each team’s statistical profile to this point of the season. Guess: Michigan State +2.5.

No. 3 seed Baylor -1.5 vs. No. 6 seed Creighton The old football cliché of, “the team with the ball last will win,” might apply here. With as offensively explosive and evenly-matched as both sides look, it’s hard to see either pulling away. I change my mind every minute on whom to pick, but BetMGM makes it a little easier from a betting perspective with an off-market line of Baylor -1.5. The Bears might be ever-so-slightly better, but it’s extremely close. Guess: Creighton +1.5.

No. 4 seed Indiana -2 vs. No. 5 seed Miami The Hurricanes took some late money ahead of their 63-56 victory over Drake as 2.5-point favorites on Friday. The same trend may reappear today. Indiana deserves to be favored, making some of the opening prices like pick’em and even Miami -1 incorrect, but the line has slightly over-corrected. Miami’s advantage on the perimeter is just as obvious as Indiana’s on the inside. There’s not much room with Indiana -1.5 the fair price, but only one way to go with a pick. Guess: Miami +2.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or