NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of March Madness’ Sweet 16

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, March 23, 2023 | 2 a.m.

Count me among the casualties claimed by the worst beat of the NCAA Tournament so far.

Holding an 84-78 lead with .7 seconds left on the clock, Gonzaga looked sure to advance to the Sweet 16 with a win and cover over TCU as 4.5-point favorites in the final round of 32 game Sunday night. By now, anyone who’s engrained in sports betting has seen what happened next.

Senior guard Damion Baugh let the inbounds pass roll past the halfcourt line before picking the ball up and heaving it towards the basket.

Swish. TCU covers in an 84-81 loss.

Sports books around Las Vegas erupted, and a betting moment that will be referenced from years to come was born.

The pick’em’s apparent 7-2 record to finish off the final day of the first weekend turned to a 6-3. I could have used the extra win with a poor 22-28-2 against the spread record picking every game.

Luckily, the plays have been profitable at 8-6-1 (leans are 7-12-1 while guesses sit at 7-10).

The point-spread loss leaves the Bulldogs as the only team in the Sweet 16 that’s failed to cover in both of their NCAA Tournament games so far. They also allowed a backdoor cash by beating Grand Canyon only 82-70 as 15.5-point favorites in the round of 64.

Gonzaga might be in the most bet-on game of the Sweet 16 tonight when it faces UCLA as 1.5-point underdogs at T-Mobile Arena. It’s the marquee matchup not only for the local West Regional but the tournament as a whole.

The bad beats surely aren’t done yet with 15 games left until a national champion is crowned. The first three tournament games ever in Las Vegas might be uniquely positioned to provide some late-game hijinks.

The West Regional looks to have the strongest remaining overall field, and at least for the Sweet 16, the tightest point spreads. More last-second betting decisions are coming, with TCU to thank for reminding bettors of the tried-and-true rule to never count winnings before a final score is official.

Read below for handicaps on every Sweet 16 game including the pair of West Regional contests at T-Mobile Arena tonight. Picks are labeled with one of three confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

No. 2 seed UCLA -1.5 vs. No. 3 seed Gonzaga Two weeks ago, UCLA closed as a slight underdog and ultimately lost at T-Mobile Arena to a big, fast-paced, offensively-driven rival in Arizona. Now the Bruins are facing a better version of that profile in the Bulldogs. UCLA’s injuries nearly sunk it in the round of 32 when it slipped past Northwestern 68-63 as 7.5-point favorites and now it’s added another ailing player. David Singleton is expected to play after twisting his ankle but it’s difficult to expect him to be at 100%. Already down one starter, UCLA now has two others banged up. These are two Final Four caliber teams, but one is healthier. Play: Gonzaga +1.5.

No. 3 seed Kansas State +1.5 vs. No. 7 Michigan State Early money flew in on Michigan State, which opened as low as a 1-point underdog before getting to -2 across the board. The doubt in Kansas State is nothing new as the market has moved against it all year, and often been wrong considering the Wildcats have one of the nation’s best against the spread records at 22-12. Michigan State disarmed its first two tournament opponents, USC and Marquette, with its physical style of play but Kansas State is less likely to be thrown off by the approach. The Wildcats may thrive in it. Play: Kansas State +1.5.

No. 1 seed Alabama -8 vs. No. 5 seed San Diego State It’s uncomfortable to step in front of Alabama right now, but it’s betting-market rating has peaked and leaves no choice but to sell-high in the right matchup. This could be the right matchup. The Aztecs’ defense, which thrives in transition and guarding the 3-point line, seems like the perfect unit to give the Crimson Tide fits. San Diego State won’t survive if Alabama turns the game into an uptempo shootout but the underdogs have traditionally been disciplined enough not to get away from their preferred style. Lean: San Diego State +8.

No. 6 seed Creighton -9.5 vs. No, 15 seed Princeton The Tigers’ offense puzzled Arizona and Missouri just enough to lead to upset victories while their defense threw both opponents’ all out of sorts. But Creighton will be far and away the best defensive team Princeton has faced, and the Blue Jays tend to be less reckless with the ball on the other end of the floor. Before Princeton’s recent run, this number would have been around -12 or -13 and the postseason success may not merit this large of a shift. Lean: Creighton -9.5.

No. 1 seed Houston -7.5 vs. No. 5 seed Miami On the one hand, Miami’s mediocrity in rebounding appears to be a major red flag against Houston. On the other, the Hurricanes have the backcourt to match up with the Cougars’ top-flight unit behind guards Isaiah Wong and Nijel Pack. The number seems about right but Miami has the shooting ability to keep it close and the coach in Jim Larranaga to scheme open looks. Guess: Miami +7.5.

No. 4 seed Connecticut -4 vs. No. 8 seed Arkansas UConn has covered by an average of 13.5 points in their pair of tournament games so far, and that doesn’t at all overrate how dominant it’s looked. The Huskies have arguably looked like the best team in the tournament. They’ll have their hands fuller against Arkansas, which is stocked with far more talent than UConn’s first two opponents but the Razorbacks aren’t statistically great in any area. The Huskies might be great in most areas. Guess: UConn -4.

No. 2 seed Texas -4.5 vs. No. 3 seed Xavier From a personnel perspective, Texas should have a chance to blow out Xavier, but coach Sean Miller has extra time to prepare and that shouldn’t be discounted. Rodney Terry has settled into his role as interim coach with Texas but the Longhorns still sometimes look like they’re at a schematic disadvantage. Xavier’s offense is also one of the best in the nation and more than capable of keeping up if the game turns into a high-scoring affair. Guess: Xavier +4.5.

No. 4 seed Tennessee -5.5 vs. No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic This game has the lowest Sweet 16 total, over/under 130.5, by more than two possessions. That’s notable because it illustrates how much fewer opportunities will be available for either team to build a big lead. The Volunteers’ size should frustrate the Owls and lead to a victory, but it will likely be neither pretty nor wide. Guess: Florida Atlantic +5.5.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or