Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Julian Strawther (0) takes a three point shot during the second half of a Sweet Sixteen NCAA Tournament basketball game at T-Mobile Arena Thursday, March 23, 2023.
Saturday, March 25, 2023 | 2 a.m.
March Madness 2023
The two best games of the tournament through the Sweet 16 both cashed as winning plays for me. Make that cashed as somewhat lucky winning plays.
That doesn’t mean I don’t think I was on the right side with both Kansas State +1.5 and Gonzaga +1.5 in the last round. The Wildcats and Bulldogs led by seven and 10 respectively in the final minutes of regulation before the madness reared its head.
Gonzaga was covering even before Julian Strawther’s “dream” heave that led it to a 79-76 victory over UCLA at T-Mobile Arena. And Kansas State had controlled most of the game against Michigan State before requiring overtime to prevail 98-93.
But it would be wrong not to acknowledge that if one little thing went differently in either game, a winning bet would have turned to a losing bet. The margins are so slim in sports betting, especially in an event as massive as the NCAA Tournament where the markets are highly efficient.
I bemoaned the misfortune of Gonzaga’s non-cover against TCU in the round of 32, so it’s only right to point out some breaks falling the other way more recently. Those wins elevated me to a strong 10-6 record on plays through the NCAA Tournament, and a 29-29-2 record picking every game (leans are 9-12-1 and guesses are 10-11).
Read below for the handicaps on Saturday’s pair of Elite Eight games. Picks are labeled in one of three sets of confidence categories, and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas at the chosen side.
No. 3 seed Gonzaga +2.5 vs. No. 4 seed Connecticut UConn has been the best team in the tournament, but it almost feels like the Huskies have been too perfect. They were always going to dominate inside, but now, their shots are falling at an unsustainable rate. Reference their surprisingly-mediocre ShotQuality grade for Thursday’s blowout victory over Arkansas for proof. They haven’t faced an elite offense since the semifinals of the Big East Conference Tournament when Marquette edged them 70-68 as 4-point underdogs. Gonzaga’s offense is a level above that, and should at the very least make this a close game. And close games are where UConn has struggled this year as its late-game execution in high-leverage spots has left much to be desired. A lot of times, that’s randomness that evens out in the long run but there might be some predictive value when it comes to the Huskies. It’s not comfortable to pick against UConn with the way it's rolling right now, but it feels like some recency bias is at play to help make the spread this large. Lean: Gonzaga +2.5.
No. 3 seed Kansas State -1.5 vs. No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic The Owls have been tremendous during as 10-game winning streak, and are absolutely talented enough to be an Elite Eight team. They’re a lot better than most Cinderella mid-major teams of past years to have made it this far. And yet, can’t we admit they’ve had an exceptionally fortunate path? Florida Atlantic survived by one point in a wild, coin-flip game against Memphis, rallied to beat No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson while failing to cover by eight points and unraveled a Tennessee side that looked, well, offensively susceptible to unraveling. Kansas State’s run through Montana State, Kentucky and Michigan State has been far more impressive. The Wildcats came into the tournament as the better team on paper, and they’ve only increased the gap sense. Lean: Kansas State -1.5.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or
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