1 million more residents projected by 2024

By Emily Richmond

Wednesday, May 19, 2004 | 1:05 a.m.

Nevada's sizzling population growth will continue for the next two decades, the state demographer announced Tuesday, with Southern Nevada projected to add 1.1 million people by July 2024.

The Silver State's population is expected to swell by 59 percent in the next 20 years, with Southern Nevada growing by 69 percent in the same period, the state's demographer said Tuesday.

According to the projections, Nevada will grow to 3.6 million people in 2024 from 2.3 million last July, and Clark and Nye counties will grow to 2.8 million from nearly 1.7 million.

Nevada's growth is likely to continue outpacing that of the nation as a whole, Jeff Hardcastle, state demographer, said. In 2000 the Census Bureau projected the United States would grow at a rate of 19 percent by 2020. Nevada's population is expected to grow by 69 percent by 2020, he said.

The newest projections, while substantial, do reflect a slowdown in overall population growth when compared with the boom of the past 20 years when Nevada's population soared by 150 percent, Hardcastle said. In that same period, Southern Nevada's population climbed by 197 percent.

Between 1983 and last year, Clark County's population rose by more than 1 million people to more than 1.6 million, said Keith Schwer, executive director of the Center for Economic Research at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. That increase was more than the state's total population of 897,160 in 1983, Schwer said.

Whether the continued growth is good or bad is a matter of personal perspective, Schwer said.

"When we do surveys, the folks who have lived here a long time see the increased traffic as a nuisance," Schwer said. "But the newcomers tell us the travel times and air quality are better here than in the larger urban areas they left behind."

Half of the people living in Clark County have been here for 11.5 years or fewer, Schwer said. And Nevada has the nation's lowest percentage of residents who were born in-state, Schwer said.

The projections come as Southern Nevada is grappling with growth issues. Clark County formed a task force to study growth and recommend ways to handle it and the Southern Nevada Water Authority is looking for new sources of water.

Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid said predictions of continued strong growth are to be expected.

"That has been the trend for the last two decades. Since 1986 we've been the fastest growing area in the nation," Reid said. "So it's not surprising."

Reid, a member of the Southern Nevada Water Authority board, said the task force is especially important in light of the projected growth and the ongoing drought, which has prompted water-use restrictions and conservation efforts throughout the Las Vegas Valley.

"We'll need to conserve more, and we'll also need to look for additional resources," Reid said about the region's ability to maintain the growth rate during a drought.

While there is water banked in Arizona for future use, the water authority is also looking for possible future sources in Clark County, from aquifiers known as the Three Lakes, as well as in Lincoln and White Pine counties.

Reid also said that area leaders have been working on growth issues for years.

"Clark County has already done a lot," he said. "We have a 53-mile beltway and the air's cleaner. This county tried to stay ahead of the curve."

Throughout the rest of the state, population growth will be irregular, Hardcastle said. Northwestern Nevada, which includes Carson City and Churchill, Douglas, Lyon, Storey and Washoe counties, is expected to gain 179,000 people by 2024. Rural Nevada territories, such as Elko, Mineral and Pershing counties, may see a drop in population.

Clark County School District officials said Tuesday the state demographer's numbers are in line with their own projections.

"We show for each of the next 10 years a good 5 percent enrollment growth," said Rick Baldwin, demographics specialist for the district. "That means our enrollment would hit 448,852 by 2013."

The district is projecting more than 280,000 students when the new school year begins in August. That would push Clark County up one to the No. 5 slot on the list of the nation's largest school districts.

Expectations for continued growth is one of the reasons the district has to be aggressive in its land use planning, acquisition and development, said Matt LaCroix, assistant director of real property management for the district.

"Our building program is planned around our changing demographics," LaCroix said. "We don't just look at the number of people moving here -- we have to figure out how many children they are likely to have and when those children are going to need seats in a classroom."

The Clark County School District is in the midst of a $3.5 billion capital improvement plan approved by voters in 1998, and will open 14 new schools this fall. But district officials have projected a shortage of elementary school seats by 2007 -- a year before the bond program ends. District officials say they expect to go back to voters in two years and propose a new bond program in order to continue new construction and modernize existing schools.

North Las Vegas City Manager Gregory Rose said predictions of consistent and rapid growth for the area are in line with expectations for North Las Vegas.

North Las Vegas has been among the fastest growing large cities in the country in recent years. Rose said city projections show the city population increasing from about 162,000 residents today to about 515,000 in 2025.

Tom Perrigo, comprehensive planning manager for the city of Las Vegas, said of his initial reaction to the state numbers, "I didn't see anything other than business as usual, what we would expect."

He said the bulk of city planning is done in three- to five-year increments, although looking 20 years out is important for major infrastructure such as roads and water and sewer treatment plants.

Perrigo said local jurisdictions have pitched in to help pay for the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, Center for Business and Economic Research, which provides the detailed numbers used to project the need for future major projects.

He said that it might be helpful to compare those numbers to those released by the state, and "if the work we've done is inconsistent with those numbers, we'll reevaluate our numbers."

Sun reporters Dan Kulin and Sito Negron contributed to this story.