Monday, Aug. 21, 2006 | 7:22 a.m.
No one can roll the dice at a regulation craps table and predict exactly which number will come up each time.
What a select few can do, according to gambling authority Frank Scoblete, is exert enough influence over the dice to throw slightly fewer sevens than expected.
These so-called "controlled shooters" - as opposed to us lowly "random rollers" - can swing the mathematical edge in the game of craps from the house to the gamblers, Scoblete said.
Instead of the casino slowly grinding down the player, the player can put a little dent in the house's bankroll.
"There is no doubt it can be done, but it's very difficult to become good at it," said Scoblete, co-author of the new book "Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution" and an accompanying DVD set. "Counting cards in blackjack is easy compared to dice control.
"With video poker or blackjack, it's just a matter of statistics. You have to make the right decision at the right time, and you have an edge. With dice control, you create your own edge. Everything has to be functioning perfectly."
An average craps player will throw a seven once every six rolls. By practicing at a makeshift craps rig at home (or possibly at a low-limit table in the casino for residents of gambling towns), a controlled shooter aims to improve that ratio to at least once every 6 1/2 rolls or seven rolls. (Those in the dice underground refer to "SRR," or sevens-to-rolls ratio.)
It's not easy to reach that level. Scoblete recommends practicing for six months and documenting several thousand rolls before risking money in a casino.
"It's very much a physical thing, like baseball," Scoblete said.
Gambling expert and publisher Stanford Wong released "Wong on Dice" in 2005 and followed with another book this year, "The Mad Professor's Crapshooting Bible," by Tino Gambino, as dice control discussions continue to seep into the gambling mainstream.
"I still run into some skepticism today but nowhere near the amount I did 20 years ago," said Scoblete, regarded as an innovator in the (ahem) field.
Two years have passed since Wong made a private wager (though the results were made public) with a small group of nonbelievers regarding how many sevens he and a compatriot would roll in 500 tosses of the dice.
As chronicled in "Wong on Dice," the over/under was set at 79 1/2 sevens in the 500 dice tosses. A random roller would be expected to roll 83.3 sevens in 500 tosses, with a 63 percent chance of rolling 80 or more, according to Wong.
The challenge took place on full-size craps tables at undisclosed Nevada casinos. Wong his partner in the bet ended up with 74 sevens, collecting $15,350 from the skeptics who had put up their money against them.
I was curious if this challenge had repeated in the interval, if those who maintain that all dice rolls are random had approached Wong to try to get their money back. Double or nothing?
Wong's response was telling.
He said that whereas he remains willing to back up his contention that the dice can be controlled enough to erase the house's advantage and give the edge to the player, he can't find any takers on the other side of the proposition.
"The people who disbelieve in dice control are not willing to put up their money," Wong said. "I'd do it over again if anyone was willing."
Wong had one caveat: His partners would roll the dice next time. Wong himself has fallen out of practice and estimates his current SRR at 6.1 - barely good enough to break even.
But if you're that good, won't you attract the unwanted scrutiny and general bad vibes from casino personnel that blackjack card counters call "heat"?
While Scoblete suggests leaving the table in response to any serious heat, Wong said in his experience heat is usually a function of the amount of money on the table layout rather the dice-control skills of the shooter.
"For example, if someone starts betting $500 chips, they're going to attract some attention," Wong said. "It doesn't matter how much the shooter happens to be betting."
My first experience with heat at the craps table came recently with a relatively small amount of money in play.
With Scoblete's "easy and gentle" mantra in mind, I was working on a decent streak of rolls with no sevens appearing. Both dice were kissing the wall each time, but that wasn't good enough for the pit supervisor on duty.
"Take off your skirt," he admonished me, and make sure both dice hit the wall - hard - each time.
His politically incorrect (yet some would argue appropriate for a Vegas craps table) attempt at an insult failed to faze me.
In fact, I was delighted. In my fledgling career as a "controlled shooter," it was the best indicator yet that I was making progress in this arcane yet alluring gambling endeavor.
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