Stimulus benefits a tough sell here, Dina Titus finding

By J. Patrick Coolican

Monday, Feb. 22, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Rep. Dina Titus had a remarkable statistic on hand as she drove around Henderson, meeting with local businesses last week: Of the 20 ZIP codes with the most foreclosures in the nation, 13 of them are in her 3rd Congressional District.

Although Titus and her fellow Democrats may pat themselves on the back for running a brilliant campaign in 2008 by piling up a 40,000-voter registration advantage, those foreclosures likely tell the real story in her victory over incumbent Jon Porter.

The foreclosures, and the awfulness that has flowed from them — the collapse of the construction industry and sharp rise in unemployment — had voters in a firing mood.

A year later, conditions haven’t improved in Nevada, with 81,000 jobs lost.

Now, Democrats have an unenviable task: They must sell the public on the merits of their singular domestic policy, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, also known as the stimulus, to voters who don’t think their fortunes are improving.

“It’s a tough sell because the basic claim is a nonevent — the jobs that would have been lost,” said Dave Damore, a UNLV political scientist.

And, it’s even harder for Titus.

“It’s tough in that district, with all those independents, all the foreclosures and job loss,” Damore said.

Democrats, led by President Barack Obama, used the anniversary of the stimulus last week to refocus their message, saying the policy effectively stabilized the economy and saved 2 million jobs. They also attacked Republicans for being hypocrites by attacking the stimulus while happily posing for photos at the sites of stimulus projects (see related story.)

Democrats have an advantage in that private economists, the type who sell their data to investors and are thus considered most credible, tend to agree that the stimulus was a bulwark against a deeper recession.

As The New York Times reported last week, IHT Global Advisors, Moody’s Economy.com and Macroeconomic Advisers say the stimulus prevented the loss of jobs numbering from 1.6 million to 1.8 million.

John Makin, an economist at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, said in a recent report that absent the stimulus, the economy would have continued shrinking in the second half of 2009; during that time, the economy actually grew 3 percent.

The stimulus gave a significant tax cut to most people; it stabilized state budgets, including Nevada’s to the tune of a $1 billion, which prevented layoffs of thousands of teachers and saved hospitals that would have cratered in the face of a steep cut in Medicaid reimbursements; it provided money for extended unemployment benefits; and, it set in motion infrastructure projects, including a recently announced $34 million for a bus rapid transit line on Sahara Avenue.

Although the job losses have largely stopped, companies haven’t begun hiring again, so most Americans aren’t feeling very good about their economic prospects.

For many, Democrats’ claims that the stimulus has worked must seem a bit like Republicans’ perpetual claims of progress in Iraq in 2005 and 2006 — if there’s progress, why do I keep seeing mayhem on my TV screen? Similarly, if the stimulus is working, why is my neighbor still unemployed? This is even more true in Nevada, where things have gone from bad to worse in the past year.

So, not surprisingly, the stimulus doesn’t poll well. A CNN poll showed 56 percent disapprove.

But here’s the paradox: By wide margins, as high as 80 percent, Americans favor the provisions of the bill, including money for the unemployed, infrastructure spending and tax cuts.

As Titus noted, however, the marketing of the bill has been less than stellar.

“No, we did not do a good job,” she said.

“People have forgotten it included the big tax break, they have forgotten the $250 check if you’re on Social Security or a veteran. Those aspects were not played up enough. And then money for the state — look where the state would be without it. Then there’s the continuation of unemployment benefits at a time when Nevada is second to Michigan” in unemployment.

Then Titus reiterated her point: “No, we didn’t do a good job selling it.”

She noted many Americans mistakenly think the stimulus package and the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) — the bank bailout — are the same thing.

Titus is right. More than half of Americans think stimulus money went to help “bankers and investors,” according to the CNN poll. Which, aside from tax cuts that nearly all Americans received, is untrue.

For Titus, that’s doubly cruel: She wasn’t even in Congress when the first round of TARP money was approved, and then she voted against the second round.

Titus has another problem — those foreclosures. The administration’s foreclosure programs haven’t worked very well, as the crisis has continued unabated in places such as Nevada.

Titus has been a frequent critic of the administration’s program and successfully lobbied to make more homeowners eligible. She wrote to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner asking that repaid TARP money be given to distressed homeowners. She set up a Web site so people could share their stories about dealing with lenders. And, she introduced a bill to help homeowners in Nevada get information about reducing mortgage costs.

She also voted with the House majority on a bill that would have allowed bankruptcy judges to reduce the principal on a mortgage, known as “cramdown.” It died in the Senate, she noted ruefully.

During a visit with a struggling contractor last week, Titus promised to contact his recalcitrant bank to see whether it would agree to more flexible credit terms, as she said she’s done with countless homeowners.

Titus said more should have been and should be done to help the hardest hit areas — the foreclosure crisis has been driven by Nevada, Florida, California and Arizona.

The administration may be getting the message. Obama announced $1.5 billion in new foreclosure relief — directed at the hardest hit states such as Nevada — during his visit to Las Vegas last week.

Just as that foreclosure wave, and the tragedy that came after it, swept Titus into office, it could just as likely sweep her out. She faces a tough likely challenger in former state Sen. Joe Heck, a physician and Army Reserve colonel.

Titus’ tough line with the administration on the foreclosure crisis could presage more to come, Damore said. “That’s the other tack: Run against the party.”

Indeed, asked to give Obama a grade, Titus, an on-leave UNLV political science professor, sighed and said, “Incomplete.”