Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

On a futures bet, Las Vegas loses if the Giants win

Super Bowl 42: Patriots vs. Giants

Tom Donoghue/DonoghuePhotography.com

Super Bowl XLII: the New England Patriots vs. the New York Giants on Feb. 3, 2008. The Giants defeated the Patriots 17-14 in Glendale, Ariz.

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — It should come as no surprise that the Giants have fans rooting against them in the Super Bowl in places like New Hampshire, Massachusetts and even parts of Connecticut. After all, the New England Patriots have a dedicated following, and quarterback Tom Brady has mainstream appeal.

In an odd confluence of events, however, it appears there will also be a small (but passionate) group of people in the West pulling for the Patriots on Feb. 5: oddsmakers in Las Vegas.

The reason, of course, is simple: money. A number of sports books in Nevada took significant bets on the Giants to win the Super Bowl at long odds earlier this season — some as high as 80 to 1 — leaving the books with tremendous exposure as oddsmakers call it, heading into the championship game.

Jimmy Vaccaro, head of the Lucky’s Race and Sports Book, said in an interview this week that while he took only a few bets that could reap big payoffs for a Giants victory, he had heard from other oddsmakers who are at significantly greater risk.

“They got hit pretty hard at the high number,” Vaccaro said. “If the Giants win this game, it could do some damage ... there is no doubt. A lot of guys were rooting for San Francisco on Sunday, I can tell you that.”

The concern from oddsmakers has little to do with bettors wagering on the actual game — some say this game may break the Nevada record of $94 million bet on the 2006 Super Bowl between Pittsburgh and Seattle. Rather, the fear is based on what is known as futures betting.

Essentially, futures are the odds that sports books offer throughout the season on particular teams to win the championship. These numbers go up or down depending on the most recent developments — say, an important trade or an injury to a star player. Whatever the odds are when a bettor puts down his money is what the payoff is based on should the team end up holding a trophy. A $100 bet at 80-1, for example, would return $8,000.

Futures wagering is active during the entire season, and losing streaks — like the four-game slide the Giants endured in November and early December — affect a team’s odds. When the Giants skidded through defeats to the 49ers, the Philadelphia Eagles, the New Orleans Saints and the Green Bay Packers, their odds skyrocketed.

“I remember we opened them at about 20 to 1 last February, right after last year’s Super Bowl,” Jay Kornegay, director of the sports book at the Las Vegas Hotel and Casino, said. “But when they hit that losing streak, it went up. I mean, they lost to Vince Young and the Eagles! We were lucky the bets didn’t come our way, but there are some tickets out there.”

Kornegay added: “Even at the start of the playoffs we had them at 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. They had a very hard road.”

Adding to the anxiety in Nevada is what happened only months ago when the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series. Much like the Giants, the Cardinals have a passionate — and loyal — base of fans, many of whom are not afraid to put down money on their team regardless of how dire a situation might seem.

So when the Cardinals were 10 1/2 games out of the playoffs with 32 games remaining in the regular season, their futures odds were considerable; Kornegay recalled that he listed them at 250 to 1 to win the World Series and 100 to 1 to win the National League pennant. “And we had action on both,” he said.

Even the Cardinals, however, could not compare with the exposure the books had on Virginia Commonwealth last year during the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The Rams’ unlikely Final Four run had virtually every sports book sweating as VCU’s odds were as high as 500 to 1 in some places, with a smattering of bettors hoping for a monstrous payday. Only when VCU lost to Butler did oddsmakers exhale.

For the Super Bowl, most sports books have the Patriots as favorites with a spread of about 3 points, a markedly smaller line from the 12-point spread the Giants faced in the 2008 title game against New England.

Giants defensive end Justin Tuck made it clear that he preferred seeing his team in the underdog role. “For all the oddsmakers out there, keep rooting against us,” he said. But Vaccaro said much of the early betting from “sharp,” or professional, bettors came in on the Giants, particularly in places where the Patriots were favored by 3 1/2 as opposed to 3.

Although many bookmakers would have preferred seeing the 49ers in the game instead of the Giants, they can take solace in the knowledge that a Giants win is not the worst possible outcome.

Had the Denver Broncos made the Super Bowl, Kornegay said, there would have been a legion of insomniac oddsmakers in Nevada, their dreams haunted by visions of fans in Tim Tebow jerseys lining up to cash gargantuan winning tickets.

The Broncos’ odds were as high as 5,000 to 1 in some places — that’s a $100,000 payout on a $20 bet — and Kornegay said he took numerous bets on them.

“If the Broncos were in the Super Bowl, the lights would definitely be dimmer around this place,” he said. “I’m not even sure we’d be talking right now.”

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