Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun
Thursday, April 25, 2013 | 2 a.m.
The common refrain leading up to UFC 159 suggests that Chael Sonnen beating Jon Jones would mark the biggest upset in promotional history.
Odds-wise, that’s untrue. At least two underdogs bigger than Sonnen, in main events no less, have prevailed in the past — Frankie Edgar at plus-700 (risking $1 to win $7) over B.J. Penn at UFC 112 most recently and Matt Serra at plus-850 over Georges St. Pierre at UFC 69 most memorably.
Sonnen could climb higher before fight night, but the challenger to the light heavyweight championship is currently around plus-650 at the vast majority of sports books. Jones comes back at minus-950 (risking $9.50 to win $1).
Both Penn and St. Pierre in the aforementioned fights were quadruple-digit favorites.
It’s not as if oddsmakers are disrespecting Jones, as their numbers still indicate he has a 90 percent chance to keep the belt.
The Sun’s picks panel sees no reason to dispute that. All five prognosticators took Jones to tie the UFC record with five straight light heavyweight title defenses.
Check below for a breakdown, betting odds and picks on every fight from the Sun’s Ray Brewer (39-19 year to date), 2012 champion and KSNV’s Kevin West (39-19), ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (38-20), ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (37-21) and 2011 champion Case Keefer (34-24) from the Sun.
Chael Sonnen
- Age: 36
- Height: 6’1”
- Weight: 185
- UFC record 6-5
- MMA record 27-12-1
- Out of: West Linn, Ore.
- Betting line: +650
Champion Jon Jones
- Age: 25
- Height: 6’4”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 11-1
- MMA record 17-1
- Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
- Betting line: -950
Light Heavyweight Championship Bout
Main Event
Last fight: Lost to Anderson Silva via second-round TKO at UFC 148.
Punch list: Sonnen moves to light heavyweight after going 0-2 against Silva but, as he’ll happily remind everyone at any opportunity, he took five of seven rounds against the champion. Since the most sought-after superfight is Jones vs. Silva, Sonnen’s performance here will be endlessly compared to his first two failed title shots. Silva set the bar low with two-adversity fueled losses, but Jones will need to far surpass that output to escape criticism.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Jones
Cofield: Jones
Last fight: Defeated Vitor Belfort by fourth-round TKO at UFC 152.
Punch list: To hardcore UFC fans, this fight concludes a rather forgettable stretch of Jones’ career. After beating five former champions in 13 months to start his reign, “Bones” has now met two veteran middleweights without the typical credentials needed to challenge for the light heavyweight title. Judging by his reaction to promoting UFC 159, Jones might feel the same way as everyone else. He’s been very standoffish and disinterested in talking about Sonnen.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Jones
Brewer: Jones
Okamoto: Jones
No. 10 Alan Belcher
- Age: 28
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 185
- UFC record 9-5
- MMA record 18-7
- Out of: Biloxi, Miss.
- Betting line: +140
No. 4 Michael Bisping
- Age: 34
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 186
- UFC record 13-5
- MMA record 23-5
- Out of: Manchester, England
- Betting line: -170
Middleweight Bout
Co-Main Event
Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 155.
Punch list: In contrast to Bisping, Belcher is staying in the shadows and not drumming up any controversy. That’s just who he is as someone who’s been with the company longer than the vast majority of the roster, seven years, but has never moved to the top of the middleweight division. The Okami loss was a major setback to that ever happening as Belcher had pieced together a four-fight winning streak before the bout.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Bisping
Cofield: Belcher
Last fight: Second-round knockout loss against Vitor Belfort at UFC on FX 7.
Punch list: Brash as always, Bisping has guaranteed a victory in Newark, N.J. He’s given Belcher little credit, calling his opponent’s career “pathetic” and saying he could beat him even with a rash of injuries. These are usually the type of bouts “The Count” strives in. He’s now 0-3 in top-contender fights after the Belfort loss but wins plenty to get into those positions in the first place.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Bisping
Brewer: Bisping
Okamoto: Bisping
Cheick Kongo
- Age: 37
- Height: 6’4”
- Weight: 229
- UFC record 11-5-1
- MMA record 18-7-2
- Out of: Paris
- Betting line: +185
No. 6 Roy Nelson
- Age: 36
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 252
- UFC record 5-3
- MMA record 18-7
- Out of: Las Vegas
- Betting line: -235
Heavyweight Bout
Featured Fight
Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Shawn Jordan at UFC 149.
Punch list: Ready to hear the most basic but mind-blowing statistic? Kongo has won three of four fights in the last two years. It just doesn’t feel that way with two absolutely dreadful performances in wins — against Jordan and Matt Mitrione — and one lopsided loss to Mark Hunt. Also mixed in to start the streak was the memorable first-round knockout over Pat Barry when Kongo admitted to coming back from unconsciousness for the victory.
Picks:KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Nelson
Cofield: Nelson
Last fight: Knocked out Matt Mitrione in the first round at “The Ultimate Fighter” 16 finale.
Punch list: Where Nelson falls in the heavyweight division is rather clear right now: He’s a fringe top-10 guy who puts on exciting fights but will likely never challenge for the belt. Of course, “Big Country” disagrees with that. He’s not shy about thinking he deserves a spot among the elite, regularly referencing the three rounds he went with Junior dos Santos three years ago. But between dos Santos, Fabricio Werdum and Frank Mir, Nelson has always come up short against the best fighters at heavyweight.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Nelson
Brewer: Kongo
Okamoto: Nelson
Vinny Magalhaes
- Age: 28
- Height: 6’3”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 1-2
- MMA record 10-5
- Out of: Las Vegas
- Betting line: +250
No. 8 Phil Davis
- Age: 28
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 6-1
- MMA record 10-1
- Out of: San Diego
- Betting line: -325
Light Heavyweight Bout
Pay-Per-View Fight
Last fight: Submitted Igor Pokrajac in the second round at UFC 152.
Punch list: Other fighters could learn at least one important lesson from Magalhaes. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace proves that it’s possible to get the bout a fighter seeks if he’ll only ask. Coming off of only one victory since returning to the UFC for the first time in three years, Magalhaes called out Davis. The promotion and Davis himself both gladly obliged.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Davis
Cofield: Davis
Last fight: Submitted Wagner Prado in the second round at UFC 153.
Punch list: After a brief demotion to the preliminary card, Phil Davis is back in the spotlight of the pay-per-view. He needs to make the most of it. Long viewed as a potential challenger to Jon Jones, Davis can’t expect that to happen if he loses another fight. Jones’ days in the 205-pound division seem numbered as he talks about moving on to heavyweight or superfights.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Davis
Brewer: Davis
Okamoto: Davis
Pat Healy
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 29-16
- Out of: Portland, Ore.
- Betting line: +240
No. 4 Jim Miller
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 11-3
- MMA record 21-4
- Out of: Whippany, N.J.
- Betting line: -300
Lightweight Bout
Main Card Opener
Last fight: Defeated Kurt Holobaugh by unanimous decision at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine.
Punch list: Entering the UFC after suffering a case of bad luck, “Bam Bam” was scheduled to face Gilbert Melendez for the Strikeforce title before an injury to the champion prevented the bout. Now the journeyman is, at best, a couple wins away from UFC contendership. But he is on a six-fight winning streak, which is hard to ignore.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Miller
Cofield: Healy
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Joe Lauzon at UFC 155.
Punch list: Coming off of a Fight of the Year performance against Lauzon, Miller faces a whole different type of challenge in Healy. Defense will be as important as offense in Miller’s fourth fight in front of his home state in the last five years, as he’ll need to thwart Healy’s wrestling. He stated his goal is getting a stoppage over Healy.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Miller
Brewer: Miller
Okamoto: Miller
Yancy Medeiros
- Age: 25
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 9-0
- Out of: Wai’anae, Hawaii
- Betting line: +250
Rustam Khabilov
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 1-0
- MMA record 15-1
- Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
- Betting line: -325
Lightweight Bout
FX prelim
Last fight: Second-round knockout over Gareth Joseph at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Werdum.
Punch list: Medeiros hasn’t fought in three years, and fans probably won’t recognize him when he returns Saturday. That’s because the Hawaiian is making a weight-class drop — a big one. Medeiros goes from middleweight to lightweight in this bout. He’s a striker who’s knocked out six of his seven opponents.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Khabilov
Cofield: Khabilov
Last fight: Knocked out Vinc Pichel in the first round at “The Ultimate Fighter” 16 finale.
Punch list: It may seem like a big jump for Khabilov to headline the FX portion of the card in his second UFC fight, but it shows how much the promotion thinks of him. The Russian striker is one of the top prospects at lightweight. He opened a lot of eyes by tossing around a game Pichel wit body slams and haymkaers last December.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Khabilov
Brewer: Khabilov
Okamoto: Khabilov
Ovince Saint Preux
- Age: 30
- Height: 6’3”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 12-5
- Out of: Knoxville, Tenn.
- Betting line: -200
Gian Villante
- Age: 27
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 205
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record10-3
- Out of: Bellmore, N.Y.
- Betting line: +160
Light Heavyweight Bout
FX prelim
Last fight: Third-round knockout victory against T.J. Cook at Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman.
Punch list: Saint Preux brings an athletic background into the UFC that not many can match. He played college football as a linebacker at Tennessee. His brother was a wide receiver at UNLV. Saint Preux uses the strength he spent his life developing to control opponents in the cage.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Villante
Cofield: Saint Preux
Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Derrick Mehmen at Strikeforce: Barnett vs. Cormier.
Punch list: This must be one of the only fights in UFC history that pits two former college football standouts against each other. Villante was the lesser of the two on the gridiron as he played four years at Division-II Hofstra. He wrestled at the same time, which paved his path to mixed martial arts.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Saint Preux
Brewer: Saint Preux
Okamoto: Saint Preux
No. 9 Sheila Gaff
- Age: 23
- Height: 5’5”
- Weight: 125
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 10-4
- Out of: Eschwege, Germany
- Betting line: +400
No. 6 Sara McMann
- Age: 32
- Height: 5’5”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 6-0
- Out of: Gaffney, S.C.
- Betting line: -700
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
FX Prelim
Last fight: Knocked out Jennifer Maia in the first round at Cage Warriors: Fight Night 4.
Punch list: Only one of “The German Tank’s” fights have ever gone to decision, which she lost unanimously three years ago. Her last three fights are what landed her in the UFC as she knocked out all the opponents in a combined time of 1:52. Two of the knockouts came in 10 seconds or less.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: McMann
Cofield: McMann
Last fight: Beat Shayna Baszler by unanimous decision at Invicta FC 2.
Punch list: The third women’s fight in UFC history has a lot to live up to. Both of the first two bouts were considered resounding successes. McMann is one of the most highly touted fighters the UFC scooped up for its new 135-pound female division. She competed in Olympic wrestling, winning a silver medal in 2004, before moving to MMA with great success.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: McMann
Brewer: McMann
Okamoto: McMann
Johnny Bedford
- Age: 30
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 2-0
- MMA record 19-9
- Out of: Fort Worth, Texas
- Betting line: -150
Bryan Caraway
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 2-1
- MMA record 17-6
- Out of: Goldendale, Wash.
- Betting line: +120
Bantamweight Bout
FX Prelim
Last fight: Knocked out Marcos Vinicius in the first round at “The Ultimate Fighter” 16 finale.
Punch list: After two years and two knockouts, Bedford finds himself on a major UFC card for the first time. He holds a reach and size advantage over almost everyone at 135 pounds. Bedford has a wrestling background, but has won his last five fights by either submission or knockout. He was a castmate with Caraway on the 14th season of “TUF”.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Bedford
Cofield: Caraway
Last fight: Lost to Takeya Mizugaki by split decision at UFC on FUEL TV 8.
Punch list: “Kid Lightning” took this assignment on less than a week’s notice after Erik Perez dropped out with an injury. Caraway probably wants to move past a disappointing situation in his last fight. Girlfriend Miesha Tate told him in his corner to “just coast” ahead of the third round in the close fight. Caraway then lost the third round and two of the three judges scored the fight against him.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Caraway
Brewer: Caraway
Okamoto: Bedford
Cody McKenzie
- Age: 25
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 146
- UFC record 2-3
- MMA record 13-3
- Out of: Spokane, Wash.
- Betting line: +145
Leonard Garcia
- Age: 33
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 1-4
- MMA record 15-10-1
- Out of: Lubbock, Texas
- Betting line: -175
Featherweight Bout
Facebook Prelim
Last fight: Knocked out by Chad Mendes in the first round at UFC 148.
Punch list: McKenzie made a name for himself through having one of the best guillotine chokes in MMA, but he hasn’t found a chance to show it much recently. He’s lost three of four. His last 11 wins, sure enough, are by guillotine choke but his striking and wrestling are mediocre at-best compared to other UFC fighters.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: McKenzie
Cofield: McKenzie
Last fight: Split-decision loss to Max Holloway at UFC 155.
Punch list: Both fighters must win here to keep their job with the UFC. Garcia would normally be long gone after four straight losses but he’s arguably the most exciting fighter in the UFC and dropped a controversial decision his last time out. Plenty of close fights have gone Garcia’s way over the years, however, as his last three victories are by split decision.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: McKenzie
Brewer: McKenzie
Okamoto: Garcia
James Head
- Age: 29
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 2-2
- MMA record 9-3
- Out of: Oklahoma City, Okla.
- Betting line: -160
Nick Catone
- Age: 31
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 3-4
- MMA record 9-4
- Out of: Brick Township, N.J.
- Betting line: +130
Welterweight Bout
Facebook Prelim
Last fight: First-round TKO loss against Mike Pyle at “The Ultimate Fighter” 16 finale.
Punch list: Head’s streak of 11 fights without ever getting finished came to an inglorious end four months ago. Pyle caught him with a knee less than two minutes into their fight at the Hard Rock in Las Vegas. This marks the first fight the full-time petroleum engineer has been favored in his career.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Head
Cofield: Head
Last fight: Second-round submission loss to T.J. Waldburger at “The Ultimate Fighter” 16 finale.
Punch list: “The Jersey Devil” looks to snap a two-fight skid. It might be a good sign that he’s fighting in front of his home-state, as he’s 6-1 in New Jersey including a win over top-10 opponent Costa Philippou two years ago. Big and strong, Catone’s best results come when he over-powers opponents with his wrestling and grappling.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Head
Brewer: Head
Okamoto: Head
Kurt Holobaugh
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 9-1
- Out of: Independence, La.
- Betting line: +110
Steven Siler
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 3-1
- MMA record 21-10
- Out of: Orem, Utah
- Betting line: -130
Featherweight Bout
Facebook Prelim
Last fight: Lost by unanimous decision to Pat Healy at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine.
Punch list: Holobaugh considers Chuck Liddell his idol, which is interesting considering Siler trains under “The Iceman’s” longtime coach John Hackelman. At his best, Holobaugh has shown impressive striking in the mold of Liddell. Holobaugh had knocked out two straight opponents before losing the first fight of his career against Healy.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Siler
Cofield: Siler
Last fight: Lost to Darren Elkins by unanimous decision at UFC 154.
Punch list: Siler had a chance to move into the upper region of the 135-pound division with four straight wins, but got thoroughly out-wrestled by Elkins late last year. Holobaugh should be more open to brawl, which fits with Siler’s style better. While he’s shown enhanced striking, Siler has submitted 10 opponents since his last knockout.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Holobaugh
Brewer: Siler
Okamoto: Siler
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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