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March 28, 2024

Politics:

Wounded but dangerous: Here’s why to believe Harry Reid will run in ’16

Harry Reid

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, 75, talks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, Jan. 22, 2015, for the first time since he suffered an eye injury and broken ribs on New Year’s Day accident while exercising at his home in Henderson.

Harry Reid

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., takes questions from reporters during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2015. Launch slideshow »

Will he or won't he?

That's the question entertaining Nevada and Washington's political class this winter as they debate whether Harry Reid will run for a sixth term to represent Nevada in the U.S. Senate.

The case for the doubters: Despite the fact he's said publicly and privately he's running, the 75-year-old would be 83 by the time he finishes the term. The $1.4 million sitting in his campaign account today is relatively low. Couple all that with a brutal exercise accident on the first day of 2015 that could leave him partially or totally blind in one eye, and it's easy to see a path for Reid to retire.

But those close to the Democratic leader say that argument completely misses a fundamental understanding of what drives Harry Reid — and why he's almost definitely running for a sixth term in 2016.

Here's the case for why Reid is gearing up for reelection:

He doesn't know anything else

Reid has been running — and winning — federal elections since 1986. His closest advisers say preparing for a campaign battle is simply what Reid knows how to do. And after he heals from his exercise injury, it's what he'll throw himself into.

Reid told Politico last week his top adviser in Nevada, Rebecca Lambe, is working to hire campaign staffers, albeit the process has been slowed down by his injury.

"I dont have any other hobbies," Reid said tongue-in-cheek when asked by the Sun last year about his lengthy career in the Senate.

He's more motivated than ever

The metaphors about Reid's days as an amateur boxer may be tired, but they're apt: Insiders say Reid simply doesn't know how to back away from a fight.

Republican emails titled "Harry Reid Retirement Countdown," pundits questioning his ability post-injury, and headlines about how he's the most endangered Democratic senator in 2016 only serve to fuel his desire to prove everyone wrong.

Reid's potential opponents — outlined by Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston — are acutely aware that a motivated Reid is a dangerous Reid. Whoever runs against him won't escape his team's notorious attacks.

"This is a guy who thrives on being underestimated," said his former communications director, Jim Manley.

He'll have no problem raising money

November's midterm elections were a disaster for Democrats across the country, and especially in Nevada.

It's tempting to conclude a malfunction in the Democratic fundraising machine Reid has built up over the years led to the party's poor showing in Nevada, but party insiders say the state was more a victim of national politics than poor organization.

It's difficult to dissect what actually happened. What is clear that a healthy Reid, who spent much of 2014 raising money for his endangered Senate Democrats, will turn his considerable fundraising skills to his own campaign effort.

Fundraising is where Reid's seniority plays to his advantage: Big-money donors, including Nevada's gaming industry, are likely to contribute to him over an untested opponent with less sway in Washington.

Reid's reelection could easily be one of the most expensive Senate races in history. Republican mega-donors Charles and David Koch have set a budget of $889 million in 2016 — a chunk of that is sure to find its way to Nevada to try to defeat Reid. But Democrats' outside spending game will be bolstered by a relatively new Super PAC, Senate Majority PAC, co-chaired by Reid's former chief of staff, Susan McCue, with the stated mission of helping Democrats take back the Senate in 2016.

"He has one of the best campaign operations in the country," said adviser Jim Margolis, "and anyone who underestimates him is making a big mistake."

2016 is supposed to be a good year for Democrats

Politics 101 in America says presidential election years are better for Democrats than midterm elections.

As an early caucus state, Nevada is an increasingly important player in the 2016 presidential elections, and Reid can only benefit from the wide-open race, whether Democrats' nominee is Hillary Clinton or someone else.

Like Obama's runs in 2008 and 2012, Nevada Democrats' get-out-the-vote machine will get a boost from national Democrats bringing their own operations to the state.

There will be other issues that could help drive Democrats to the polls, including an expected ballot initiative to expand background checks on gun sales in the state.

But ..

We'll end on a caveat.

And that is that no one, not even his closest advisers, can claim to know exactly what the laconic Reid is truly thinking.

Insiders' best guess is that only a severe health problem for him or his beloved wife, Landra, could change Reid's mind about running. Several people say being blind in one eye doesn't hit that mark — but then again, no one foresaw Reid missing weeks in Congress while he recovered from a snapped exercise band.

But given all the above, it's easy to see a path for Reid to run for reelection.

"I’ve never known Reid to believe he can’t win," said one of his closest Nevada advisers, Billy Vassiliadis. " … If he sees even a little walking path to victory, he’ll run."

Whether Reid does pull out another win is another discussion entirely.

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