August 22, 2019 Currently: 104° | Complete forecast

Analysis:

Bern’s-Eye View: Forecasting Mountain West Basketball Week 11

Image

L.E. Baskow

UNLV guard Jordan Cornish (3) looks to get off a shot between SJS forward Ryan Singer (24) and SJS forward Brandon Mitchell (4) during their basketball game at the Thomas & Mack Center on Saturday, January 10, 2015. L.E. Baskow.

Mediocrity continues to reign both in the Mountain West standings and in my picks.

I was poised to finish with a winning week until both plays yesterday blew up in spectacular fashion. Air Force never had a chance as 9.5-point home underdogs against San Diego State, which won 77-45, and UNR continued to make that victory at UNLV even more baffling with a 16-point home loss to Utah State in a game that was either a pick’em or Wolf Pack minus-1.5, depending on when you bet it.

The result is another week at .500 — my third in a row. It’s better than completely going in the tank but in Las Vegas, an even record is as good as losing.

Since we’ve got such a light schedule tonight — there are only two games, including UNLV-New Mexico — I’m going to use this space to show you how I’ve been doing with each individual team. The main takeaway should probably be to trust me on San Jose State and Colorado State while running the other direction on UNR.

Here’s a quick look at my record picking each team’s games, plus the performance over the last five games. Tonight’s lone forecast pick is at the bottom. Remember, the ATS total number of games often won’t match the team’s records because several games were off the board.

Note: UNLV picks will appear in the live blog on the day of games.

San Diego State (15-4, 5-1)

Bern’s ATS: 9-8, 3-2 last five

Click to enlarge photo

San Diego State forward Malik Pope dunks basket against UNLV during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Jan. 17, 2015, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Wyoming (16-3, 5-1)

Bern’s ATS: 8-6, 2-3 last five

New Mexico (12-6, 4-2)

Bern’s ATS: 6-10, 1-4 last five

Colorado State (17-2, 4-2)

Bern’s ATS: 12-5, 4-1 last five

Fresno State (9-10, 4-2)

Bern’s ATS: 10-6, 2-3 last five

Utah State (11-7, 4-2)

Bern’s ATS: 9-7, 2-3 last five

Boise State (12-6, 2-3)

Bern’s ATS: 7-8, 2-3 last five

UNR (6-11, 2-3)

Bern’s ATS: 5-9-1, 2-3 last five

The Rebel Room

The Downward Slide

UNLV has lost two straight and five of the last six, so Las Vegas Sun sports writers Ray Brewer and Taylor Bern discuss reasons for the skid and what hope remains for the rest of this season.

UNLV (10-8, 1-4)

Bern’s ATS: 8-9, 3-2 last five

Air Force (8-10, 1-6)

Bern’s ATS: 7-7, 3-2 last five

San Jose State (2-16, 0-6)

Bern’s ATS: 12-3, 3-2 last five

TODAY

San Jose State (plus-21) at Boise State

7 p.m., Root Sports/Mountain West Network

• I don’t need to go into a long explanation here. As I’ve said all year, picking against San Jose State is a profitable venture. I’m not someone who likes laying big points but if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.

Pick: Boise State

Last week: 5-5

Season: 75-63-1

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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