Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Week 10 NFL game of the week, picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Can Arizona crack Seattle’s home-field advantage for the second time in three years?

CenturyLink 2015

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Seattle Seahawks players huddle on the field at CenturyLink Field during warmups before an NFL football game before an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Oct. 18, 2015, in Seattle.

11/8/15: NFL Games

Indianapolis Colts' Frank Gore (23) runs for a 7-yard touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2015, Indianapolis. (AP Photo/AJ Mast) Launch slideshow »

Week 10: Cardinals at Seahawks

Which side would you take in Cardinals at Seahawks? (Poll consensus year to date: 5-3-1)
Cardinals plus-3 — 56.1%
Seahawks minus-3 — 43.9%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

The mystique of CenturyLink Field failed to fluster Bruce Arians.

In the 63-year-old’s first visit to the most intimidating professional football venue as a head coach, he snapped one of the decade’s longest home winning streaks. Arians’ Arizona Cardinals came to Seattle as 8-point underdogs two years ago to meet a Seahawks team that hadn’t lost in their last 14 home games, including never under quarterback Russell Wilson.

Arizona, which had lost 58-0 at CenturyLink as 10.5-point underdogs the year before, downed Seattle 17-10 despite committing four turnovers. Beyond ending a run of invincibility, the upset also birthed an unforeseen threat to what seemed like a strengthening Seahawks’ stranglehold over the NFC West in the years to come.

At this time last season, Arizona was favored to win the division over Seattle with a two-game lead. The Cardinals are a similar minus-160 (risking $1.60 to win $1) to win the NFC West holding an identical two-game edge over the Seahawks, which are plus-190 (risking $1 to win $1.90), going into tonight’s Sunday Night Football faceoff.

The matchup pairs the third and fourth choices behind the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers to win the NFC with the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook offering Arizona at 9-to-2 and Seattle at 5-to-1. The Seahawks lay three points on the betting line, their lowest spread at home in two and a half years, in a game that will have an appreciable effect in the futures market.

Arizona at Seattle is the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping competition, meaning it’s a required pick off of the South Point betting board along with five other selections for the three competing sportswriters. Full picks are available at the bottom of the page.

The Seahawks have gotten back to defending their home field since the 2013 loss to the Cardinals, but not quite to the same level as early in Wilson’s tenure — at least from a betting perspective. The 14 victories in a row produced by the 2012 NFL Draft third-round pick out of Wisconsin coincided with an 11-3 against the spread record.

Seattle is still 14-2 straight-up at home since then, but only 9-7-1 against the spread. The Seahawks had seven home victories of three touchdowns or more before the 2013 Cardinals loss, but only two ever since.

While using arbitrary criteria to show a decline may sound fussy, the betting market has reacted to the recent lack of dominance. It’s a rarity to ever see money come in on the road team against Seattle, but most of the early action is on Arizona this week.

Not only have the Seahawks garnered an unreliable standing in 2015 by going 2-5-1 against the spread including a home loss to the Panthers as a 7-point favorite, but the Cardinals have been the opposite. Arizona has drawn money every week while starting the season 5-3 against the spread.

The Cardinals have deserved the attention by looking like one of the best teams in the NFL. Their plus-110 point differential is second to only the Patriots.

The offense is gliding along at 6.7 yards per play, which is nearly a massive half-yard better than anyone else in the NFL. A resurgent stretch from 35-year-old quarterback Carson Palmer has him garnering some long-shot MVP consideration, though New England quarterback Tom Brady is alone as a heavy favorite at offshore sports books where such wagers are permitted.

Palmer leads the NFL in throwing for 9.1 yards per attempt. Arians’ reputation for getting the best out of veterans has only grown after coaxing out revivals from running back Chris Johnson and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald.

Johnson’s average of 4.8 yards per attempt this season is his most efficient since his 2009 season in Tennessee when he famously ran for more than 2,000 yards. Fitzgerald’s seven touchdowns put him on pace to eclipse his total number of scores from his last two seasons before Arians arrived, when he found the end zone 12 times.

The Cardinals’ offensive line ranks in the top five in both pass protection and run blocking by Football Outsiders’ advanced metrics, which Seattle must envy. The Seahawks are the NFL’s worst team in pass-protection, which has Wilson posting a career-low passer rating by virtue of nine touchdowns to six interceptions.

But the most surprising advantage for Arizona comes on defense, where it ranks third by Football Outsiders’ DVOA to Seattle’s seventh. The Cardinals’ secondary has simply been more dependable, as the Seahawks’ “Legion of Boom” has single-handedly contributed two losses with blown coverages late against the Panthers and St. Louis Rams.

With statistics pointing an edge strongly in the Cardinals’ direction, the best justification for taking the Seahawks is that they’re facing close to a must-win situation in a stadium where they rarely lose. Seattle did slaughter Arizona 19-3 at home last season as 7.5-point favorites, but that was after Palmer went down to leave the Cardinals unable to hold on to the same divisional lead they’ve recreated this year.

Arians and Palmer pierced Seattle’s home-field aura the last and only time they were together. Sunday Night Football should provide some clarity on whether it was a one-time aberration or the start of a larger revelation.

Check below for all of the week 10 picks. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 30-22-2 (3-3 last week)

Cowboys plus-1.5 at Buccaneers

Dolphins plus-6 at Eagles

Raiders minus-3 vs. Vikings

Giants plus-7 vs. Patriots

Chiefs plus-6 at Broncos

Cardinals plus-3 at Seahawks

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 25-26-3 (3-3 last week)

Packers minus-10.5 vs. Lions

Bears plus-6.5 at Rams

Panthers minus-4.5 at Titans

Raiders minus-3 vs. Vikings

Chiefs plus-6 at Broncos

Seahawks minus-3 vs. Cardinals

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 21-30-3 (3-3 last week)

Packers minus-10.5 vs. Lions

Titans plus-4.5 vs. Panthers

Saints pick’em at Redskins

Dolphins plus-6 at Eagles

Giants plus-7 at Patriots

Seahawks minus-3 vs. Cardinals

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy