Week 11 NFL game of the week, picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Sixteen non-interim coaches have come through the other three franchises in the AFC East since Bill Belichick took over the New England Patriots in 2000.

Only one has posted a winning against the spread record when going up against Belichick. Rex Ryan is only 4-10 straight-up including losing seven of his last eight to the Patriots, but he’s a profitable 8-6 against the spread versus the most transcendent gambling coach of the era.

Ryan will have a chance to further improve that record on Monday Night Football, where he brings his Buffalo Bills to New England as a 7-point underdog.

The quasi-rivalry is the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping competition, making it a required pick to go with five other selections off of the South Point betting board for three competing sportswriters. Full picks are available at the bottom of the page.

Ryan lashed out at reporters on a conference call this week, denying he was obsessed with the Patriots. But the bombastic former Jets coach set himself up for incessant Belichick questioning long ago.

He was just as animated, though far less angry, when his Jets defeated the Patriots 16-9 as 3-point underdogs six years ago in his debut in the series. Ryan went on to win and cover in two of the next four meetings, including the Jets’ infamous 28-21 upset as 9-point underdogs on the road in the 2010 playoffs.

Although success has waned since then, the fast start may have stuck in everyone’s minds solely because of the rarity of seeing the modern Patriots frequently falter to the same opponent. The divisional coaches Belichick has faced most other than Ryan during his tenure are Herm Edwards, who led the Jets from 2001 to 2005, and Dave Wannstedt, who roamed the Dolphins’ sidelines from 2000 to 2004.

Belichick went 7-2-1 against the spread versus Edwards and 6-3 against Wannstedt, winning 14 of the combined 19 games straight-up. It’s too often a losing strategy to bet against Belichick, whose Patriots teams have gone 156-116-6 versus the number.

Big bettors felt the wrath of the man in the cut-off hoodie when the Patriots and Bills met earlier in the year. The ideal scenario occurred for sports books in the week 2 game with the action split between the bulk of the public’s bets on New England and the larger action from the professional gamblers on Buffalo.

A line that opened as a pick’em shifted to Buffalo minus-2.

To disprove the misguided notion that the sharp bettors always win, the Patriots romped the Bills 40-32 after building a 34-13 lead. And yet, early action is on Buffalo again this week, pushing the point spread down from an opener of New England minus-8.

The Patriots don’t look much like the team that already beat the Bills, though.

After combining for 247 yards and three touchdowns in the victory, running back Dion Lewis and wide receiver Julian Edelman are both out for the rematch. Lewis will miss the rest of the year after tearing his ACL while Edelman is hoped back for the playoffs treating a broken foot.

The Patriots could also be down more than half of their offensive line depending on game-time decisions. The wear of the injuries showed last week in a 27-26 win at the New York Giants as 7-point favorites to snap a 3-game covering streak.

Buffalo was just as beaten up a month ago, but a bye week helped it slice into the injury report. The Bills had played four straight games without their offensive triumvirate of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back LeSean McCoy and wide receiver Sammy Watkins intact, going 1-3 straight-up and against the spread.

But with all three healthy the last two weeks, Buffalo has defeated two straight division rivals in Miami, a 33-17 win as 4-point favorites, and the New York Jets, 22-17 victory as 2.5-point underdogs, to reestablish playoff contention.

Ryan received some heat this week for saying he’s conceded the division to the Patriots, but the odds are with him. The Patriots’ four-game lead over the Bills and Jets was significant enough for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook to take the AFC East future odds off of the board.

Football Outsiders gives New England a 98.4 percent probability to finish atop the divisional standings. That would bring Belichick his 13th AFC East title in 16 years with the Patriots and seventh straight, or every one since Ryan arrived.

Check below for full week 11 picks. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 34-24-2 (4-2 last week)

Cowboys minus-1 at Dolphins

Falcons minus-5.5 vs. Colts

Broncos pick’em at Bears

Bengals plus-5 at Cardinals

Chargers plus-3 vs. Chiefs

Bills at Patriots under 48.5

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 28-29-3 (3-3 last week)

Raiders minus-1 at Lions

Cowboys minus-1 at Dolphins

Rams plus-2.5 at Ravens

49ers plus-13 at Seahawks

Chargers plus-3 vs. Chiefs

Patriots minus-7 vs. Bills

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 23-34-3 (2-4 last week)

Redskins plus-7 at Panthers

Lions minus-1 vs. Raiders

Packers plus-1 at Vikings

Broncos pick’em at Bears

Chargers plus-3 vs. Chiefs

Patriots minus-7 vs. Bills

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.