Search is on for viable Democratic candidate in CD3

By Kyle Roerink

Monday, Oct. 19, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid called her a “formidable candidate.” A national campaign group praised her.

But when it came time for Heather Murren to decide whether to run for an open seat in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, she declined. She was the third potential Democratic candidate to do so.

Democrats are struggling to find a competitor for CD3. Why? And after three high-profile strikeouts, is it time to call the game?

Voters in the district, which includes Henderson, Summerlin and much of Southern Nevada, supported President Barack Obama by a 12-point margin in 2008 and a one-point margin in 2012. But Republican Joe Heck has held the seat since 2010, and Democrats this year have been unable to attract a candidate despite the district being open. Heck is vacating the seat to run for U.S. Senate.

Murren, co-founder of the Nevada Cancer Institute and wife of MGM Resorts International CEO Jim Murren, was the most recent loss for Democrats. This summer, former Secretary of State Ross Miller kindled hopes of filling the role but decided against it. State Sen. Aaron Ford also was in the mix but declined.

Republicans have danced over Democrats’ struggles.

“With three public refusals by top recruits, (Democratic) chances in CD3 have gone from bad to worse and aren’t improving any time soon,” said Zach Hunter, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Still, 13 months from the general election, Democrats have time to find a candidate.

“We will continue to engage potential candidates who can compete and win,” said Tyler Law, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman.

But if they must settle for a weak one, the election could become a repeat of last year’s governor’s race, in which incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval won by 70 percent against an unknown Democrat with little money or support.

The problem Democrats are encountering is CD3 is not a safe, long-term bet, said David Damore, an associate political science professor at UNLV.

“Who wants to fight for their life every two years?” Damore asked.

Despite a registration advantage for Democrats, the seat in its seven-election history has been won only once by Democrats, in 2008.

Running for such a risky seat makes no sense for many potential candidates. Miller and Ford, for example, are eyeing higher office and don’t want a loss on their political resumes.

“The research tells you good candidates bide their time and wait for races they think they can win,” Damore said.

CD3 stands in stark contrast to Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, which includes northern Clark County and rural central Nevada. Four Democratic candidates — Susie Lee, John Oceguera, Lucy Flores and Ruben Kihuen — are vying for the nomination to challenge incumbent GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy, who won the seat in a 2014 upset.

“There, you see candidates who are thinking they can win in 2016 and beyond,” Damore said.

On the other side of the chessboard, Republicans are lining up to replace Heck. State Sen. Michael Roberson, the GOP’s establishment candidate, will take on primary challengers Danny Tarkanian, Dr. Annette Teijeiro and Andy Matthews.

Another factor for Democrats to weigh: A Democratic winner most likely will be in the minority party in the House. Unless Democrats win 30 seats, which is unlikely, the chamber will remain in Republican control — likely for the next few elections cycles. Even if a Democrat were to win, he or she would be at the bottom of the out-of-power totem poll.

Reid has built a formidable political machine over his decades-long career, but this race may be another that eludes his reach.

Or not. The deadline to file for candidacy is in March.