Tight races, hot issues to watch in Nevada primary election

By Megan Messerly

Tuesday, June 14, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Nevadans have a chance today to decide who they think is best suited to represent their interests on the local, state and federal levels during the state’s primary election.

For some of the races, it's just the next step ahead of a fierce general-election campaign in the fall. In others — including several races in the state Legislature — the primary will determine the final victor, either because there's no opponent to face in the general or because of an overwhelming voter-registration advantage in the district.

Two congressional primaries feature the most competitive battles of primary season: the Republican race to replace Republican Rep. Joe Heck and the Democratic bid to challenge Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy, who won the seat in a surprise victory in 2014.

But primary outcomes for the Legislature hold significant consequences for Nevada's future. Democrats hope to regain control of both houses, while establishment and anti-tax Republicans struggle for control of their party.

About 11 percent of Nevadans have already voted, either through early voting or mail-in ballots. But primary-day voters will likely just about double that for an overall turnout around 20 percent.

Here’s a snapshot of what to look out for in today’s primary.

A cutthroat Republican congressional primary

The fiercest race to watch in the primary is between state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson and businessman Danny Tarkanian for the Republican nomination in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District.

Tarkanian started the race with a significant name-recognition advantage, owing to his four previous runs for public office and being the son of the late Jerry Tarkanian, UNLV's beloved basketball coach. Roberson, meanwhile, had a long legislative record to point to but little name-recognition among voters outside of his Senate district in Henderson.

The two have been attacking each other on the airwaves for weeks. Roberson has hammered on a $17 million court judgement against Tarkanian related to a business relationship he had with a company whose director was later sentenced for fraud. At the same time, Tarkanian has criticized Roberson’s legislative record, including getting the governor’s $1.4 billion tax package through the Legislature in 2015, which doesn’t sit well with some staunchly anti-tax voters.

Last week, a Washington-based dark money group called Ending Spending entered the race, putting $1.6 million toward ads supporting Roberson and attacking Tarkanian and another one of their primary opponents, Assemblywoman Michele Fiore.

Fiore has raised little money in the race but has garnered significant media attention for her stance on guns and her role in the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge occupation in Oregon.

The race is expected to be close, but Tarkanian’s campaign is feeling positive, in spite of the significant money against them in the past few days.

“We don’t have $1.6 million in dark money to respond, but we’ve used every technique at our disposal to reassure supporters that the race is on track and we’re going to win,” said James Fisfis, Tarkanian’s campaign manager. “We’ve run a very disciplined, smart campaign.”

Roberson’s campaign declined to comment on their expectations for the race.

Whoever wins the Republican nomination in the district will go on to challenge the victor of the Democratic primary — either Henderson synagogue leader Jacky Rosen, who is backed by Sen. Harry Reid, or Henderson attorney Jesse Sbaih, who garnered national media attention after accusing Reid of making his religion an issue in the race.

The seat is currently held by Heck, who is vacating it to run for U.S. Senate.

Less bitter, still competitive Democratic congressional primary

In interviews last week, all of the leading Democratic campaigns in Nevada’s 4th Congressional District expressed their optimism headed into the primary.

Each of the three candidates has played to strengths. State Sen. Ruben Kihuen has drawn the support of several unions, including the powerful Culinary Union (of which his mother and brother are members), as well as Sen. Reid and former President Bill Clinton. Former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores has built on her progressive appeal and allied herself with Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, who has sent out fundraising solicitations on her behalf. Philanthropist Susie Lee has demonstrated her significant fundraising chops and organizational capability as a first-time candidate.

The race had its moments of tension — Lee couching the other two as “career politicians,” and Kihuen and Flores both claiming to be the more experienced and effective legislator. But none of the flaps in the race has come as close to the toxicity seen in the 3rd Congressional District.

The Democratic nominee in the district will go on to challenge incumbent Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy, who won the seat in 2014 in the largely Democratic district. Hardy does not face a significant threat in his Republican primary.

U.S. Senate and other congressional races

Republican Rep. Joe Heck and Democratic former Nevada Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto are expected to coast easily to the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively, for U.S. Senate. Sharron Angle, who ran against Reid in 2010, threatened to shake things up in the race when she entered it in March but has not proved a significant threat to Heck.

But it will be far from smooth sailing for Heck and Cortez Masto headed into the fall. Theirs will be one of the most closely watched and most expensive Senate races of the year as they battle to replace Sen. Harry Reid, who will vacate his seat when he retires at the end of his term.

Reps. Dina Titus and Mark Amodei don’t face serious threats in their re-election bids in the state’s 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts, respectively.

Establishment Republicans vs. anti-taxers

A battle for the future of the Republican Party continues to rage in dozens of heated legislative primaries across the state.

On one side are the so-called “establishment-backed” Republicans, many of them incumbents in the Legislature who voted in favor of Gov. Brian Sandoval’s $1.4 billion tax package last session. Those incumbents, plus a handful of newcomer candidates, are being supported by Assembly Majority Leader Paul Anderson’s Growth and Opportunity PAC.

On the other side are the “anti-taxers,” some incumbents and a slate of challengers seeking to oust their more moderate opponents. They generally have organized themselves under the banner of Assemblyman Brent Jones’ Contract with Nevada group.

Across the board, establishment Republicans have generally raised significantly more money than the anti-tax group. Anderson called the money “critical,” saying it has allowed candidates to develop the strong ground games needed to win as well as to rebuff attacks.

“I’ve been involved pretty deeply in almost every single race, and I’m feeling optimistic,” Anderson said. “I’m very comfortable with where we’re at.”

Anderson expects the tightest race to be Assemblyman P.K. O’Neill’s in Carson City, but added that he thinks Assemblymen David Gardner and Stephen Silberkraus will have close ones in the south as well. O’Neill faces a four-way Republican primary against several anti-tax candidates, while Gardner faces two primary opponents, and Silberkraus faces one.

But the other side is feeling good, too. Laurel Fee, who is working with eight of the anti-tax candidates, says that their internal polling shows those candidates up.

“We’re cautiously optimistic,” Fee said. “We think we’re doing very well.”

Fee acknowledges the money advantage the other side has but believes the candidates have been able to overcome it through focusing on their opponent’s voting records and building a solid ground-game strategy.

Both sides have railed against the attacks they’ve received. Fee lamented the mailers sent out by the Nevada Jobs Coalition PAC. Many of the PAC’s contributions have come via the governor’s New Nevada PAC.

“It has been horrendous. It’s been seven and eight in each one of these races,” Fee said. “It’s not even spin. We all know how to spin, but they’re pretty direct falsehoods.”

Anderson, meanwhile, decried the attacks made by some of the anti-tax candidates in recent days — specifically over the issue of whether transgender students should be able to choose which bathroom to use.

Both Anderson and Assembly candidate Artemus Ham have been the targets of robocalls from their opponents that suggest that an anti-bullying bill, which allows students to use bathrooms and locker rooms of their choosing, will lead to children being murdered in bathrooms.

Anderson said that it takes a significant amount of time and effort to combat those kinds of attacks.

The establishment vs. anti-tax fight has also played out in the most closely watched senate race in District 6, between former Assemblyman Erv Nelson and Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman. The two have dueled in their mailers in the district, with Seaman attacking Nelson over his vote for the tax package and his role as a leader in his church and Nelson attacking Seaman over a bankruptcy she underwent.

Republicans currently hold control of both the state Senate and Assembly, but Democrats are hoping to wrest control of both houses this cycle. A number of Democratic legislative candidates also face primary battles, but they haven’t been as bitter as those on the other side.