Control of Nevada Legislature could flip in this election

By Megan Messerly

Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Down ballot, Democratic and Republican candidates are waging a quieter war for control of the Nevada Legislature.

They’re not running the million-dollar races that have taken over your television, but they may have knocked on your door or given you a call, and their yard signs are probably parked in your neighborhood. It’s a battle with tremendous consequences for the Silver State.

Two years ago, Republicans took control of both houses of the Legislature, marking the first time that the governor and legislative leaders all have been Republicans since 1929. It was part of a phenomenon across the nation where Republicans enthusiastically turned out to the polls seeking change, while a significant number of Democrats stayed home.

Democrats hope to change that, bemoaning some of the legislation that Republicans passed during the 2015 legislative session, from school choice to changes to collective bargaining. Right now, Democrats occupy 10 of the 21 seats in the Senate and only 17 of 42 in the Assembly.

The first step in regaining control is holding onto one of the Senate seats already held by a Democrat, Joyce Woodhouse's seat in District 5. The retired elementary school principal is running against Republican Carrie Buck, the executive director of Pinecrest Academy, in this Henderson swing district where Democrats have about a 4,000-person voter registration advantage.

“We feel good. We’ve worked so hard for so long both knocking on doors and talking to our constituents, making all those phone calls, sending letters into our gated communities, things like that,” Woodhouse said. “The response still at the doors is very, very positive, and early voting, when it started Saturday, I was surprised at how large the numbers were.”

If they manage to hold onto Woodhouse’s seat, Democrats only need to pick up one additional seat to capture the majority. The most promising prospect is the open seat in District 6, where Democrat Nicole Cannizzaro, a deputy district attorney, faces Republican Victoria Seaman, the current District 34 assemblywoman.

Both candidates have put up a significant fight in the Summerlin-area district, where Democrats have about a 5,400-person voter registration advantage.

Republicans have sought to raise concerns over the fact that Cannizzaro’s husband has lobbied the Legislature on behalf of some labor unions. Democrats, meanwhile, have tried to tie Seaman to Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy, who led an armed standoff against federal land officials in 2014, after she sponsored a federal lands bill that was nicknamed the “Bundy Bill.”

Seaman’s campaign manager, Ryan Hamilton, called Seaman a “relentless campaigner.”

“We’re in a six-point Democratic-advantage district, so I want to maintain expectations here. It’s always been an uphill battle for Victoria,” Hamilton said. “But one of the primary reasons I think we’re as effective as we are is Victoria’s record is not as extreme as Democrats like to make it out to be.”

Democrats also are putting up a fight in two other Senate districts, in the hopes of flipping the seats blue. They’re running attorney Devon Reese against Republican former Assemblywoman Heidi Gansert in the Reno-area District 15, where Republicans have an advantage of 1,400 registered voters.

Their longest-shot bid is in Senate District 18, the northwestern Clark County district where Republicans have an almost 2,000-person registration advantage. Incumbent Republican Scott Hammond has raised $220,000 to protect his seat from Democratic attorney Alexander Marks, who has raised a little over $105,000.

A Democratic analysis of early voting data through Sunday shows Democrats performing the best in Senate District 5, where they had about a 10-point advantage over Republicans as of Sunday. In Senate District 6, they’re a little over 7 points ahead compared to a little less than 5 points in Senate District 15. Democrats are about half a point behind Republicans in Senate District 18.

In the other house, Republicans are pushing hard to maintain their majority in the state Assembly, particularly in a volatile election year that has split the party up and down the ticket.

“The silver lining for us right now is the polling is good in our direction, both with people who are swing voting and nonpartisan,” said Assembly Majority Leader Paul Anderson. “There’s a little bit of a fickle Republican base and fractions there, but they’re starting to turn out.”

One difficulty Republicans have faced is with newly registered Republicans who vote for Trump and then leave the booth instead of voting Republican all the way down the ballot. At the same time, the modeling Republicans put together at the beginning of the campaign didn’t count on needing those newly registered voters to win.

Anderson said Republicans have made hundreds of thousands of phone calls and knocked 120,000 doors in the districts that they’re focusing on, adding that they've never had 200 people out knocking on doors for Assembly races.

Some of the top priorities for Republicans include re-electing incumbents: David Gardner in District 9, Derek Armstrong in District 21 and Stephen Silberkraus in District 29. Each is situated in a district with a Democratic voter-registration advantage boosting a competitive opponent: public defender Steve Yeager, attorney Ozzie Fumo and former Assemblywoman Lesley Cohen, respectively.

“Derek is a great example. He has a well-funded opponent and has raised a record amount for an assembly race in a Democratic district as a freshman,” Anderson said. “He’s the real deal who accomplished a lot of amazing things both in the regular session and chairing the committees (during the special session) with Faraday and the stadium.”

Republicans also are pushing to get their candidates elected to open seats previously held by Republicans, like putting Art Ham in the District 5 seat previously held by Assemblyman Erv Nelson.

Across the aisle, Democrats are likely to hold onto the 17 seats they have in the Assembly, which means they only need a net gain of five Republican seats to take control of the Assembly.

Three of those districts are low-hanging fruit due to the high Democratic registration advantage: former Assemblyman Jason Frierson, energy consultant Chris Brooks and Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod are expected to easily win their elections in Districts 8, 10 and 34. That means Democrats only have to win two of the six other seats they have targeted in order to regain the majority.

Assembly Minority Leader Irene Bustamante Adams, a Democrat, noted the work Democrats put in early on to recruit and train candidates for the open Assembly seats.

“If we hadn’t invested in those candidates, then I would feel a little bit more shaky, but I feel more confident because we did do that up front,” Bustamante Adams said. “We did make those early investments, and they’re paying off because they’re well grounded.”

She pointed to the support that the assembly Democratic caucus has received from the state party and the overall Democratic campaign coordination as key factors this election cycle.

“They did their part to turn out the registration numbers and we’re doing our part at the doors to make sure and help get them out to vote,” Bustamante Adams said. “It’s been a great collaborative effort.”