Analysis: Conor McGregor faces new stylistic challenge in Eddie Alvarez

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Nov. 9, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Conor McGregor’s current renown revolves around record-breaking purses, trash-talking insults and eerily accurate personal prophecies.

It’s almost enough to make everyone forget about the most important factor in his rise to becoming the UFC fighter who “runs the game” — action-packed fights. Not only has McGregor (20-3 MMA, 8-1 UFC) won at an unbelievable rate since signing with the UFC three years ago, he’s won at an unbelievable rate in style.

Perhaps more stylish than any fighter who’s ever come before him. McGregor has won a Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonus in eight of his nine bouts in the octagon.

The only exception was when he tore his ACL in the middle of a UFC Fight Night 26 victory over Max Holloway, who’s gone on to win each of his nine fights since.

The 28-year-old featherweight champion from Dublin now owns the cars, houses and suits typecast to the world’s most successful prizefighters, but he fights like a man with none of it. He still fights like the man who signed with the UFC while still on Ireland’s social welfare system.

That very reputation and avenue to unprecedented success could be threatened Saturday night at UFC 205 in what’s not only a pivotal moment in McGregor’s career, but also one in the UFC’s history. The locally based promotion’s New York debut is nearly two decades in the making and could produce McGregor as the first-ever fighter to hold championships in two different weight classes simultaneously.

It’s just that in lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez (28-4 MMA, 3-1 UFC), McGregor is facing someone who could attack him where he’s vulnerable, and someone who realizes as much.

“I wasn’t kidding to the media that I thought this style matchup was a good style matchup for me,” Alvarez said, “that I thought it’d be a lot easier of a fight than what they’ve been feeding me.”

Most of Alvarez’s time fighting in the UFC has been the antithesis to McGregor’s. Before he blitzed Rafael dos Anjos to capture the championship at UFC Fight Night 90 in July, Alvarez’s most exciting fight involving the UFC came in a courtroom when Bellator sued him for trying to switch promotions in 2012.

He lost that battle initially before later getting his way, much like what’s happened now that he’s in the UFC. Donald Cerrone outpointed Alvarez in his debut, but the former Bellator champion went on to upset Gilbert Melendez and Anthony Pettis to earn the title shot against dos Anjos.

All three bouts were similarly underwhelming, with Alvarez neutralizing opponents with his grappling instead of attacking them with his striking. That’s the exact strategy McGregor has yet to prove he can defeat.

McGregor says he has shown he can overcome wrestling, citing his second-round knockout of Chad Mendes at UFC 189 to win the interim featherweight title.

But Mendes was fighting on less than two weeks’ notice, and punished McGregor with takedowns and ground and pound in the first round. It wasn’t until he succumbed to exhaustion that McGregor’s overhand left put him to sleep.

Alvarez remembers that fight, referencing it frequently leading up to UFC 205.

“If he begins to think about wrestling,” Alvarez said, “his defense is atrocious.”

McGregor says accounting for Alvarez’s unfamiliar skillset doesn’t “come into the equation” as far as his preparation. And it’s easy to envision Alvarez’s pressure not mattering if the fight goes according to the McGregor plan.

His coach John Kavangah has predicted a second-round knockout.

But given the wrestling concerns and the suspect cardio McGregor has shown as recently as his UFC 202 win over Nate Diaz, there’s a real possibility Alvarez dirties up the fight to his favor if it stretches towards five rounds.

Rumors persist that McGregor will go on a hiatus after facing Alvarez. There’s no indication if the post-fight announcement he’s teased hinges on the result.

It wouldn’t feel right for McGregor to go out on anything other than a thrilling performance, because that’s all he consistently provided. That’s all he’s promising for Alvarez, and naturally, in the exact manner he’s known for.

“I’m going to toy with this man and I’m going to really, truly rearrange his facial structure,” McGregor said. “His wife and kids won’t ever recognize him again. His friends and the people he knows will know he’s not the same man after this contest.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.