NCAA’s early top 16 seeds hold little sway at Las Vegas sports books

By Jesse Granger

Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2017 | 2 a.m.

On Saturday afternoon, for the first time ever, the NCAA men’s basketball committee released its current top 16 teams more than a month before the official bracket is announced on March 12.

Las Vegas sports books paid no attention.

“We have our own power rankings and we base our odds on those rankings and the money that we have already received during the course of the season,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of the Westgate sports book. “These rankings are so early that it’s almost for entertainment purposes only. It’s not influencing any changes in the odds.”

Duke, for example, came in at No. 16 in the committee’s rankings (the fourth seed in the Midwest Region) but are still one of the favorites to win it all at 8/1 odds.

While the committee ranks teams based off resume, sports books are far less concerned.

“Duke has struggled for part of the year, but with a team like that, that has the capability of winning it all, you aren’t going to see these huge adjustments when they struggle,” Kornegay said.

The Blue Devils lost 3 of 4 games during a rough stretch in January, but with possible future NBA first-round picks Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles and Luke Kennard on the roster, the sports books didn’t adjust the odds too much.

Similarly, UCLA ranked 15th in the committee’s mid-season rankings but have the second best odds at Westgate to win it all at 7/1.

On the other side, the committee favored teams like Baylor and Florida State heavily, but oddsmakers aren’t yet sold. Baylor was the No. 1 seed in the South Region but is 30/1 to win it all.

Butler is currently slotted as the No. 4 seed in the South Region but have 50/1 odds to win it all — the worst of any team ranked by the committee.

“I didn’t completely ignore it because I was just curious what they would be for the inaugural release of seeding, but because we are so far away from the actual tournament, it didn’t change any odds,” Kornegay said.

There are still more than 1,300 games to be played before Selection Sunday and a lot can happen. When it comes to odds to win the national championship, the opponents in a team’s region play more of a factor than the seeding itself.

“When the official seeding and brackets are released, it influences the odds a lot to reflect a team having an easier route or a more difficult route due to the region that they’re in,” Kornegay said.

So for now, you can bet a possible one seed at 30/1 or a two seed at 25/1.

Here is a full list of the committee’s top 16 teams and their current odds to win a national championship at the Westgate.

1. Villanova 8/1

2. Kansas 7/1

3. Baylor 30/1

4. Gonzaga 8/1

5. North Carolina 12/1

6. Florida State 25/1

7. Louisville 20/1

8. Oregon 12/1

9. Arizona 12/1

10. Virginia 20/1

11. Florida 30/1

12. Kentucky 6/1

13. Butler 50/1

14. West Virginia 25/1

15. UCLA 7/1

16. Duke 8/1