Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

6 ways to find value in NBA betting

Irving

Ron Schwane / AP

In this Nov. 3, 2016, file photo, Cleveland Cavaliers’ Kyrie Irving, right, looks to drive against Boston Celtics’ Isaiah Thomas during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Cleveland.

The Golden State Warriors had one of the best seasons in NBA history last year, and according to oddsmakers, should be even better now.

Their over/under win total going into last year was 66.5, which they beat on the last day of the regular season to finish with a 67-15 record. So the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has boosted its betting number by one game to 67.5 wins going into this season.

And that’s the least illustrative preseason price of the Warriors’ hold over the league. The team is minus-240 (risking $2.40 to win $1) to win its third championship in the past four years. It’s entrenched at the top of betting boards all over town, but gamblers can find other values. Here are six over/under win total bets to consider.

New Orleans Pelicans over 39.5 wins

Imagine the win total at the beginning of last season if the Pelicans had both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. It might be 10 victories higher than this number. So even though the pairing of Kentucky big men after last year’s All-Star Break didn’t improve New Orleans, it seems awfully premature to write it off as a failure. It takes a while for basketball stars to learn to play together, after all. Davis and Cousins might just now be getting comfortable.

Philadelphia 76ers under 39.5 wins

There’s always a team with young talent that bettors get too excited about too quickly. Last year, it was the Minnesota Timberwolves, who came nowhere close to living up to expectations with a 31-51 record. This year, it’s the 76ers. They’ll be exciting to watch with a pair of back-to-back top overall picks in Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz to go with sophomore sensation Joel Embiid. The franchise hasn’t won 40 games in seven years, however, and a 12-win improvement from last year feels far-fetched. Philadelphia fans may not want to hear it, but patience is required.

Denver Nuggets over 45.5 wins

The Nuggets were already entering this season with the NBA’s most underrated young player in 22-year-old center Nikola Jokic, who quietly broke out by averaging 17 points and 10 rebounds per game last season. Now they might have the most underrated veteran to go with Jokic in four-time All-Star Paul Millsap, who led Atlanta to being one of the most consistent franchises in the league over the last four years. The Nuggets, who were unlucky to miss the playoffs by one game last year, hold arguably the NBA’s best home-court advantage because of Denver’s elevation.

Washington Wizards over 49.5 wins

The Wizards are 15-to-1 to win the Eastern Conference, which might make them the best long-shot gamble on the board. They won 49 games last season with a young nucleus that should theoretically take another step forward this season. Helping assist the progression is their Southeast Division, where potentially every other team has gotten worse. No starting lineup in the Eastern Conference arguably complements each other as well as john Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat.

Oklahoma City Thunder under 53.5 wins

Oklahoma City’s win total rose two games when it traded for Carmelo Anthony last month, but the 33-year-old is past the point in his career where he should bring that much of an upgrade. As with several “Big Threes” in the past, it’ll take time for Anthony, Russell Westbrook and Paul George to gel, especially on offense where ball-sharing problems could emerge. Oklahoma City will likely figure it out before the end of the year, but probably too late to reach 54 wins.

Boston Celtics under 54.5 wins

Boston broke through for 54 victories last season, even though its statistical profile painted it as closer to a 48-win team. And despite the ballyhooed acquisitions of Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, that’s not the only indicator pointing downward. The Celtics sacrificed last year’s greatest strength — their depth — to sign the superstars. Irving is also a defensive liability, and the Cleveland Cavaliers, his former team, almost always struggled when he was on the floor without LeBron James.

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