Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Analysis: Golden Knights’ rivalry with Sharks will define the season

Off of three wins in last four games, Vegas welcomes San Jose for first time tonight

Miller

Joe Buglewicz / AP

Golden Knights defenseman Colin Miller (6) is congratulated after scoring a goal during the third period of an NHL hockey game against the Calgary Flames Friday, Nov. 23, 2018 in Las Vegas.

Golden Knights vs. Flames at T-Mobile Arena

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The mood tonight at T-Mobile Arena will do a complete 180 as the Vegas Golden Knights finish off their first set of back-to-back home games this season.

Sheer happiness will give way to pure hostility.

Friday’s game held a gleeful feeling long before the Golden Knights pulled away for a 2-0 victory over the Calgary Flames.

It was “Kid’s Day,” meaning the Golden Knights’ youngest fans gallivanted around T-Mobile Arena with sparkly gold pom-poms and cutout Nate Schmidt faces. Even an opponent got a warm welcome, as the 18,206 fans in attendance saluted former Golden Knight James Neal early in the first period after a short acknowledgement on the video board.

There will be no such graciousness extended toward the San Jose Sharks when the puck drops at 7 p.m. tonight — and with good reason.

The Sharks have emerged as the Golden Knights’ biggest rival. And it’s a rivalry that will ultimately determine the fate of the season.

“These games are fun,” goalie Marc-Andre Fleury said. “It makes it fun in division games when all the points matter, and we know we need to beat them.”

Vegas and San Jose entered the year appearing a step ahead of their five Pacific Division rivals, with future betting odds at Westgate Las Vegas Superbook implying a 62 percent chance that one of the two would finish atop the standings. Believe it or not, that edge has only increased into the second quarter of the regular season.

There’s now a 64 percent probability, by the odds, that one of the two teams wins the division.

Of course, most of that shift is because of the Sharks, which are currently minus-120 (risking $1.20 to win $1) to win the Pacific for the first time in eight years. The Golden Knights trail as a 4-to-1 second choice in their quest to repeat.

And this comes despite the fact that neither the Sharks nor the Golden Knights had spent much time in first this season until Friday — San Jose moved into the top spot with 28 points, while Vegas trails at fourth with 23 points.

But they’ve been the best teams. Statistics hint so, anyway.

All the underlying numbers indicate the Sharks and Golden Knights have been better than their respective 12-7-4 and 11-12-1 records. Their shot metrics are uniformly outstanding.

For instance, San Jose and Vegas are second and third in the NHL in Corsi for percentage — a measure of every shot taken by each team.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, they rate as the two unluckiest teams in the league by PDO — a team’s shooting percentage plus its save percentage that’s known as the most telling statistic in hockey.

Over time, a team’s PDO should measure right around 100. San Jose and Vegas sit at the bottom of the league in PDO — at 97.5 and 96.3, respectively.

“We’ve dug ourselves a hole and to dig out, you’ve got to add a little hatred to the games,” fourth-line wing Ryan Reaves said. “Add a little grind, bring a little rivalry feeling.”

Reaves thought the Golden Knights brought that intensity against the Flames. Four days after getting blasted 7-2 in Calgary, Vegas controlled the action behind a brilliant performance from Fleury and consistent offensive pressure.

It was a pivotal victory that improved Vegas to 5-1-1 against Pacific Division opponents. Calgary appears to be the one team with a shot of cracking a San Jose-Vegas stronghold.

The Flames are stacked with skaters, but goaltending remains a question. David Rittich — who stopped 20 of 22 shots Friday — has been stellar in 10 starts, but a larger sample size is required to declare him the answer.

The rest of the Pacific teams have a more glaring fatal flaw.

Anaheim has the opposite problem of Calgary — terrific goaltending, but no scoring. Edmonton has the best player in the world in Conor McDavid, but a glorified minor-league roster around him. Arizona and Vancouver have youthful exuberance, but not the consistency to turn into a real threat.

Los Angeles, well, it might not have anything. There appears to be no hope for a team with the worst record in the NHL by four points.

“I think LA has been a bit our rival too,” Fleury said when asked if San Jose the rivalry has assumed the top rivalry spot. “Even Arizona, we had so many fans there the other night. We’re still looking for a biggest rival.”

That was the diplomatic answer, but it wasn’t the correct one. Los Angeles was a fitting rival in Vegas’ inaugural season, given the two teams’ proximity, contrasting styles and Drew Doughty’s guarantee that the Kings would surpass the Golden Knights by the end of the season.

But all of that was pretty much extinguished by Vegas’ first-round sweep. A second-round series with San Jose, which Vegas won in six games, was far more heated, suspenseful and evenly matched.

The Golden Knights went 7-3 in total against the Sharks last season — 7-1-2 when breaking out for overtime losses — but five of the games were decided by one goal and four went to overtime. Expect this year’s series to every bit as tightly contested.

The rest of the division got a gift in both San Jose and Vegas starting the year slow, but failed to capitalize enough on the opening.

It’s still most likely that either San Jose or Vegas will raise a banner as Pacific Division champions this year. That puts extra importance in their season series, which begins tonight.

T-Mobile Arena’s family atmosphere for the Flames was fun; the enmity on tap for the Sharks will be extraordinary.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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