Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Bank shots: Breaking down the odds of the 16 teams still standing in the NCAA Tournament

Zion

Richard Shiro / Associated Press

Duke’s Zion Williamson, right, shoots over Central Florida’s Tacko Fall during the second half of a second-round men’s college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament in Columbia, S.C., Sunday, March 24, 2019.

The short break between the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament and the regional semifinals and finals allows bettors time to reassess the standing of the 16 remaining teams. Here's a cheat sheet with what you need to know about each team as the field plays down to the Final Four through Sunday March 31.

Duke: The tournament favorite Blue Devils didn’t come close to covering the spread in either of their first two games, continuing a trend in which they’ve appeared overvalued by the betting market. Duke is just 3-8 against the spread since now-healthy superstar Zion Williamson suffered a knee injury last month.

Sweet 16 point spreads

• No. 1 seed Duke minus-7 vs. No. 4 seed Virginia Tech

• No. 2 seed Michigan State minus-6 vs. No. 3 seed LSU

• No. 1 seed Gonzaga minus-7.5 vs. No. 4 seed Florida State

• No. 2 seed Michigan minus-2 vs. No. 3 seed Texas Tech

• No. 1 seed Virginia minus-8.5 vs. No. 12 seed Oregon

• No. 2 seed Tennessee minus-1 vs. No. 3 seed Purdue

• No. 1 seed North Carolina minus-5 vs. No. 5 seed Auburn

• No. 2 seed Kentucky minus-2.5 vs. No. 3 seed Houston

Virginia Tech: The return of sharpshooting guard Justin Anderson hasn’t sparked the offense as expected, but the Hokies made a leap defensively to reach the Sweet 16 for the first time in 52 years. Solid but not outstanding during the season, Virginia Tech ranks third in the tournament in giving up only .088 points per possession.

LSU: The Tigers built big leads in each of their first two games before allowing second-half comebacks and narrowly escaping late. That continues a trend from the end of the regular season, as the Tigers are now 0-4 against the spread in the second half since coach Will Wade was suspended indefinitely.

Michigan State: No team left in the field has been more profitable on the season than the Spartans, who are 25-11 against the spread after splitting their first two games in the tournament on the betting line. Watching them, that’s no surprise—they lead the nation in assisting on 67 percent of their field goals.

Gonzaga: Some oddsmakers’ power ratings grade Gonzaga as the best team in the nation, but its probability of reaching the Final Four is lower than fellow No. 1 seeds Duke and Virginia because of its draw. Even if the Bulldogs get past Florida State in the Sweet 16, they’ll likely be a short 3-point favorite or less against either Michigan or Texas Tech in the Elite 8.

Florida State: Senior Terrance Mann might have just put together his best two-game stretch of the season, averaging 18.5 points and eight rebounds to lead Florida State to its second-straight Sweet 16. Gonzaga surely took notice, considering an outstanding performance from Mann led to its tournament demise last year.

Texas Tech: Sophomore Jarrett Culver built on his momentum by scoring 35 points to go with 12 assists in a pair of wins—and covers—for the Red Raiders. Culver now rates as the most valuable player in the nation by kenpom.com, college basketball’s foremost analytics source.

Michigan: No coach in the country is a more trustworthy March bet than Michigan’s John Beilein, who improved to 26-10-2 lifetime against the spread in the tournament with easy covers in the first two rounds. Michigan was second to Texas Tech in national defensive efficiency during the regular season but has given up a tournament-low .806 points per possession in the first two rounds.

Virginia: The Cavaliers made major strides offensively this season, even if it didn’t appear that way in their first two tournament games. Virginia shot just 29 percent from 3-point range against Oklahoma and Gardner Webb, in contrast to the 40 percent it posted during the regular season. Still, the Cavaliers are likely to regain their touch.

Oregon: The Ducks continued their unforeseen, late-season tear and now carry the nation’s longest covering streak at 10-straight against-the-spread wins. Predictably, Oregon saw the largest shift in future odds, going from 200- to 50-to-1 to win the title.

Purdue: Junior guard Carsen Edwards might be the nation’s least-appreciated star player. With money pouring in against his team in the first two rounds, Edwards led the Boilermakers to two wins and covers with a tournament-high 34 points per game.

Tennessee: The Volunteers are one of only three teams still alive—along with Duke and LSU—that lost against the spread in each of their first two tournament games. A season-long weakness for allowing 3-pointers nearly sunk Tennessee prematurely, as Colgate and Iowa combined to go 22-for-50 from beyond the arc.

North Carolina: Whether the Tar Heels reach their third Final Four in four years will come down to how teams adjust to their pace. North Carolina is far and away the fastest-playing team left in the field, averaging nearly five more possessions per game than any opponent it could see before the national championship game.

Auburn: Sophomore Chuma Okeke and junior Samir Doughty are ultimate ball hawks. Auburn moved into first in the nation in both turnover and steal percentage after forcing New Mexico State and Kansas into 16 giveaways apiece.

Houston: The mere mention of a Houston tournament run conjures images of the early-’80s Phi Slama Jama teams, which is wholly appropriate in this case. The Cougars play a throwback style, relying on physicality and defense to make opponents uncomfortable.

Kentucky: Despite two wins and covers, Kentucky’s odds to win the national championship bloated from 12- to 16-to-1. That’s entirely because of the absence of leading scorer—and local Findlay Prep graduate—P.J. Washington, who is expected to miss more time with a foot injury.

This story originally appeared in the Las Vegas Weekly.