Instant analysis: Raiders give up OT lead and watch playoffs fade in loss to Chargers

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Thursday, Dec. 17, 2020 | 9:02 p.m.

The Raiders absolutely needed a win on Thursday, and they came achingly close, even taking a brief lead in overtime. But Justin Herbert led the Chargers the length of the field and finished the game with a walk-off touchdown on a quarterback sneak, dropping Las Vegas to 7-7 on the season and banishing the Raiders to the outer fringe of the playoff picture.

A quick breakdown of Los Angeles' 30-27 victory over the Raiders:

No magic solution for defense

If anyone thought the defense was going to drastically improve after just three days under interim coordinator Rod Marinelli, Thursday night proved there is no magical solution for the Raiders on that side of the ball.

The Chargers drove 78 yards for a touchdown on their first possession as L.A. rookie quarterback Justin Herbert connected on his first 10 pass attempts (a streak that was snapped by a drop). When Herbert zinged a 26-yard scoring pass to Tyron Johnson with 25 seconds left in the second quarter it brought Los Angeles’ average gain to 6.5 yards per play in the first half; in 13 games under previous coordinator Paul Guenther this year, the Raiders had allowed 6.0 yards per play.

It was an all-around poor performance. The Raiders failed to generate a turnover as Herbert completed 68.8 percent of his passes and picked them apart for 314 yards through the air, and Las Vegas recorded just one sack in the first 58 minutes. Granted, their second sack was a big one, as Kendal Vickers dropped Herbert for an 8-yard loss and pushed back a potential game-winning field goal attempt in the final minute (L.A. kicker Michael Badgley missed the ensuing 47-yarder), but pressure on the quarterback was strictly theoretical for most of the night.

And when the defense was entrusted to protect a 27-24 lead in overtime, L.A.'s Jalen Guyton raced past cornerback Keisean Nixon and Herbert hit the wide-open receiver with a 53-yard bomb, moving the ball inside the 5-yard line. Three plays later, Herbert sneaked into the end zone for the game-winner and the Raiders' playoff hopes were effectively dashed.

Whether it's Guenther, Marinelli or the ghost of Lombardi himself calling the plays, it wouldn't make a difference. The Raiders defense is just plain bad.

Carr exits early, Mariota falters late

For most of the season Derek Carr has been the only thing keeping the Raiders afloat, so it seemed to be a severe blow to the team’s chances on Thursday night when Carr came up limping after a scramble on Las Vegas’ second drive. The seventh-year veteran exited the field and was quickly ruled out for the rest of the night with a groin injury, putting the game in the hands of high-priced backup Marcus Mariota.

Despite receiving almost no playing time this season, Mariota got up to speed in a hurry. His first drive at the helm ended when he lofted a perfect 35-yard touchdown pass to Darren Waller, and it appeared as though Jon Gruden was confident enough in Mariota to utilize the entire playbook.

It wasn't exactly a Cinderella story — Mariota got three chances to win the game late and didn't really deliver. On his first attempt late in the fourth quarter, he threw one of his worst passes of the night and was picked off by Chris Harris, a play that should have cost Las Vegas the game if the Chargers had any semblance of a kicking game. Mariota's second try at a winning drive stalled out at midfield as regulation expired.

Mariota then marched the Raiders down to the goal line on the first possession of overtime, but his third-down pass was batted down at the line of scrimmage and Vegas was forced to settle for a short field goal. Considering the state of the Raiders defense right now, that was as good as a death sentence.

If Carr is out for any extended period of time, Mariota showed some of the skills that once made him the No. 2 overall pick. His scrambling ability, which had gone dormant toward the end of his stint in Tennessee, came back to life in a big way. On the first possession of the second half Mariota started things off with a 26-yard run off tackle; he then converted a key 4^th-and-2 by scrambling to his left, diving and stretching the ball inches across the line to gain. Three plays later Josh Jacobs scored on a 1-yard run to tie the game, 17-17. And on 3rd-and-goal from the 2-yard line, Mariota rolled right and hurdled a defender for a TD, again knotting the game at 24-24 with six minutes left in the fourth.

Maybe most importantly, Mariota did not take a sack. Poor pocket presence was his biggest issue with the Titans, but he navigated the pocket adroitly and delivered most of his throws on time. Whether it was the play-calling or a commitment to being decisive with his reads, Mariota did not hold the ball interminably on Thursday. He finished 17-of-28 for 226 yards with one touchdown and one interception; he also ran for a team-high 88 yards and one score.

It probably doesn't matter much now, but if the Raiders get some help and are somehow still alive after Sunday's games, Mariota could give them a chance next week against Miami.

Star power

The Raiders have two bona fide stars at the skill positions, and they both came through in a huge way on Thursday. Tight end Darren Waller continued his beastly finish to the season by pulling in nine catches for 150 yards and a touchdown, while running back Josh Jacobs broke out of his recent slump by racking up 114 all-purpose yards and a TD.

Both made big plays in clutch situations. With the Raiders trailing, 24-17 midway through the fourth quarter, Waller got open on a broken play and caught a 7-yard pass to move the chains on 4th-and-1. Three plays later Mariota scored on a short scramble to tie the game.

In overtime, Jacobs was stuffed on two carries inside the 5-yard line, but he did yeoman's work in getting Vegas in scoring position with six touches for 32 yards on the go-ahead drive.

In a game where the Raiders were without their field general, they relied on their two studs to keep their playoff hopes alive. Waller and Jacobs delivered, even if the team came up short.

What’s next?

The Raiders would have been in a much, much better spot if they had won this game, but now they've got to be scoreboard watchers on Sunday.

Miami (8-5) and Baltimore (8-5) are both ahead of Vegas for the final wild card spot, so Raiders fans will root for New England to beat Miami and for Jacksonville to topple Baltimore. Then the Raiders will have nine days to prepare to host the Dolphins next Sunday in a game that could still end up determining the AFC's seventh seed.

The storyline for the next week is going to be Carr's status; Mariota flashed tonight, but if the season is on the line against Miami next week, the Raiders are going to want Carr under center for all 60 minutes.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.