Bill Sikes / Associated Press
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady leaves the field after losing an NFL wild-card playoff football game to the Tennessee Titans, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020, in Foxborough, Mass.
Thursday, March 5, 2020 | 2 a.m.
Quarterback A is a 28-year-old who completed 64% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempt to rank 10th in the NFL in quarterback rating this past season. Quarterback B is a 42-year-old who completed 60.8% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt to rank 17th in the NFL in quarterback rating this past season.
Take away the names, and no one in their right mind would choose Quarterback B to lead a team going forward. Nonetheless, Quarterback B—six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady—is the reported object of affection for the Las Vegas Raiders. Quarterback A? Relatively embattled incumbent Raiders starter Derek Carr.
Where will Brady land?
The odds at William Hill sportsbooks:
• New England Patriots: minus-150 (risking $1.50 to win $1
• Los Angeles Chargers: 3-to-1
• Las Vegas Raiders: 7-to-2
• Tennessee Titans: 7-to-1
• Indianapolis Colts: 15-to-1
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 50-to-1
• Dallas Cowboys: 12-to-1
• Field: 10-to-1
The potential of landing Brady to open Allegiant Stadium in the grandest style possible has enveloped the Raiders’ offseason so far. There’s been far too much chatter for far too long to dismiss the scenario as an impossibility.
NFL insiders have continually indicated Brady would be open to leaving New England, where he has spent his entire 20-year career, in free agency, which begins March 18. They’ve also labeled the Raiders as one of the most likely landing spots, largely given the team’s desire to upgrade at quarterback and its salary-cap flexibility. It hasn’t helped that Raiders General Manager Mike Mayock has been somewhat noncommittal about Carr, whom the Raiders could trade or release while only surrendering a relatively minimal $5 million in cap space.
Brady-to-the-Raiders is the rumor that won’t die, even though it should have been put to rest immediately. It’s a move that doesn’t suit either side.
Brady would almost surely require more money than he made last season—$23 million—to leave New England. Giving an athlete at the tail end of his career that type of money is never a good idea, even if it’s someone widely considered to be the all-time best in his sport.
Brady has performed incredibly well for his age—heck, he won a Super Bowl just two years ago—but anyone arguing he hasn’t shown visible decline hasn’t been watching. And that’s within the framework of Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s offense, which Brady knows innately after two decades.
It wouldn’t be that way in Raiders coach Jon Gruden’s highly complex West Coast scheme, which typically takes at least a season to master. Brady might be cerebral enough to cut down that learning curve, but he still doesn’t have the physical attributes the system usually rewards. Gruden prefers a mobile quarterback. Brady has probably been the most stationary passer in the NFL for the past several years.
It’s even harder to discern what might entice Brady to join the Raiders. He’s notoriously secretive and hasn’t spoken on his impending free agency, but given his reputation as the fiercest competitor around, it stands to reason he’d want to be surrounded by an upgraded, championship-ready roster.
The Raiders don’t offer that. The organization is confident it’s headed in the right direction after improving to 7-9 last season from 4-12 the year before, but measures with more predictive value than win-loss record are less enthusiastic.
The Raiders ranked 27th in the league with a minus-106 point differential and slotted similarly at 24th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings after another year of defensive incompetence.
Brady’s biggest advocates have pointed to his lack of quality receivers as the primary reason for his drop-off in efficiency last season. The Raiders are arguably even more barren in that department than the Patriots.
Las Vegas is expected to select a receiver early in next month’s NFL Draft—Mayock and Gruden have made that no secret with exhaustive scouting at events like the Senior Bowl and NFL Scouting Combine—but it’s a position that requires a major adjustment from the college to pro levels. It’s extremely rare for a rookie receiver to come in and revitalize the position group on his own.
Perhaps a better use of the Raiders’ draft capital—they have two first-round picks and three third-round selections—would be a quarterback, if they’ve indeed decided it’s time to move on from Carr. It would at least make more sense than chasing Brady.
Carr is coming off of a career year but still ended up around the NFL average by most metrics. His lack of awareness has been fans’ biggest gripe, something Brady could, in fairness, seemingly fix immediately.
But there’s no bigger NFL asset than a good-to-great quarterback on a rookie contract, so if the Raiders wind up enamored with someone like Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa or Oregon’s Justin Herbert, they shouldn’t hesitate to trade up and take him.
As big a splash as that would make, however, it would be nothing compared with signing Brady. The main benefit to seeing Brady in silver and black would seem to be the branding opportunity—and a guarantee that the Raiders would be among the most visible teams in the league in their first year in Las Vegas.
But they aren’t a franchise in need of such a boost. Unlike the Los Angeles Chargers, the other primary non-Patriots team linked to Brady, the Raiders aren’t struggling to sell tickets as they move into a new stadium. Personal seat licenses at Allegiant Stadium sold out in January.
The Raiders shouldn’t be thinking about elements outside of football, anyway, and should instead heed one of the franchise’s most enduring mottos: “Just win, baby.” If that’s still the driving force for both the Raiders and Brady, they’ll find their futures elsewhere.
This story appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
