Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

A look at how the Golden Knights match up with initial opponents in season reboot

Colorado, St. Louis, Dallas have not been easy outs for Vegas this season

Golden Knights Beat Blues, 6-5

Isaac Brekken/AP

St. Louis Blues forward David Perron (57) celebrates after a goal against the Vegas Golden Knights during the second period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Feb. 13, 2020, in Las Vegas.

There’s some good news for the Golden Knights when the season resumes: Regardless of the outcome in their initial three games, they will advance to the round of 16 in the league’s 24-team proposal to crown a champion. 

The first three games — against Colorado, St. Louis and Dallas — are strictly for seeding and to shake off the rust from inactivity. It’s a reward for winning the Pacific Division.

Seeding may not matter as much as usual considering there's no home ice, and all Western Conference games will be contested at a single host site. Las Vegas is one of 10 destinations being considered for two “hub cities,” with one expected for each conference. But being the No. 1 is still preferable to the No. 4, especially with the NHL mulling the possibility of reseeding teams after every round.

So how do the Golden Knights stack up against the teams they’ll compete against for the top slot? In short, not well.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche have the Golden Knights’ number, especially this season. Colorado has owned Vegas in two meetings between the teams, winning both by a combined 13-4 scoring margin.

Those victories have given Colorado a 4-3-1 edge in the all-time series with a plus-3 scoring differential. The only reason those numbers aren’t worse is because of a Nevada Day beatdown in 2017 when the Golden Knights walloped the Avalanche 7-0 in a matinee home game.

Why does Colorado excel against Vegas? Unlike a lot of teams the Golden Knights have struggled against, the Avalanche don’t have a star goalie or suffocating blue line.

They’re the top-scoring team in the NHL this season, however, and their offensive prowess seems to match up well against the Golden Knights. Particularly, the way the bottom of the lineup scores goals seems to have frustrated the Golden Knights.

The Golden Knights naturally prefer to deploy their top defensemen against Colorado’s top line of Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen. In the two meetings this year, Vegas overloaded Brayden McNabb to defend those three, swapping between Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore as his partner for the two games. It worked, as Colorado’s trio combined for no points and negative puck possession at 5-on-5 against McNabb and his partner.

But with MacKinnon and his cohorts occupying the Golden Knights’ top pair, the Avalanche feasted on the bottom of the Golden Knights’ defense. Colorado scored eight even-strength goals on Vegas, and only one came with McNabb or Schmidt on the ice — and they weren’t together for that goal.

The defense wasn’t necessarily to blame for all those goals — Mark Stone had two uncharacteristic turnovers that led to scores — but slowing the bottom of the Avalanche lineup might be key to knocking them off for the first time this season.

Dallas Stars

The Stars are the type of team the Golden Knights have always struggled against. They don’t score a ton, but they are a lockdown defensive team that limits opportunities.

And when a shot does get through to the goalie, there’s a Vezina Trophy finalist in Ben Bishop waiting to swat it away.

Dallas is one of 11 teams that Vegas has scored less than three goals per game against all-time. The rest of the list is littered with the usual suspects of strong defensive teams: the Wild, Bruins, Islanders, Predators and Coyotes.

But the Stars are the immediate threat. The Golden Knights split the season-series against Dallas, with a 4-2 loss in November and a 3-2 overtime win two weeks later, both on the road. The fact that Vegas scored four goals combined in six regulation periods is the epitome of Stars hockey.

They’ve allowed the seventh-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes in the NHL. Vegas managed 1.71 and 2.03 in the two meetings, well below their season average.

Dallas’ combination of goaltending and defense has been hard to break through. Throw in the tight nature of playoff games where defense is amplified, and the Golden Knights are unlikely to be lighting up the scoreboard against the Stars.

St. Louis Blues

The Golden Knights’ record against the Blues this season appears impressive, but some cracks emerge when looking closer. Yes, they won two of three meetings but both victories came after erasing multiple-goal deficits.

It says something that they were able to come back to win those games, but it may say more that they were down big in the first place.

The Blues led the Golden Knights 3-0 in January at T-Mobile Arena, and then 4-2 in a February return trip. Vegas roared back to tie both games in the third period and won in overtime, the only two times this season they’ve rallied from being down by two goals or more to win.

That also accounted for two of Vegas’ four all-time wins against St. Louis with none coming in regulation. St. Louis therefore sits at 5-0-4 all-time against Vegas, grabbing 14 out of a possible 18 points in the standings.

The Golden Knights lost to the Blues 4-2 in December on the road, a case of a team struggling to keep up against the defending Stanley Cup champions in their own building. St. Louis smothered Vegas in the second period, outshooting them 17-8 and scoring three goals to run away with the game.

The narrative during the Blues’ Stanley Cup run last year was that they played, “heavy hockey,” and opponents couldn’t keep up. It’s true that the Blues are a bigger team than average, but they also have everything else anyone could want in an elite team.

Selke Trophy-winning center? Check. Playmaking forwards up and down the lineup? Check. Stout blue line? Strong goalie? Terrific coach? Check, check and check.

The Blues don’t have a weakness, and that makes them tough to game plan against. Three months off between games also allows the Blues to shake off the fatigue most defending Stanley Cup winners experience in the following postseason.

They followed their championship season by leading the Western Conference through the regular season for a reason. The path to the top seed goes through the Blues.

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