Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Analysis: 5 Golden Knights who could be better (or worse) this season

Glass

John Locher / AP

Golden Knights center Cody Glass celebrates after scoring against the Philadelphia Flyers during the second period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Jan. 2, 2020, in Las Vegas.

The Golden Knights, like the rest of the NHL, is still hopeful the season begins on the league’s targeted start date of Jan. 1.

When they do start, it will be a new team. In are Alex Pietrangelo and a full season of Robin Lehner and Alec Martinez. Out are Nate Schmidt, Paul Stastny and others. Those who remain, though, won’t be the same players.

That’s just how it works. Many players will have similar, if not exact, seasons in terms of production. Others, not so much. 

Below we take a look at five Golden Knights players who project to have different seasons than last year, for better or worse, because of factors in or out of their control.

IMPROVE

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Vegas Golden Knights right wing Alex Tuch (89) looks on during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Vancouver Canucks Sunday, March 3, 2019, in Las Vegas.

Alex Tuch

During the playoffs, Tuch was referred to as the team’s X-factor so often it became a punchline. 

He did, though, have arguably the best stretch of his career, so maybe it was justified. In 20 games he led the team with eight goals and was fourth with 12 points, and his three game-winning goals were a team-high as well.

It followed a difficult regular season for Tuch. He was injured multiple times and held to just 17 points in 42 games. Even when he was healthy, he never found linemates he was comfortable with. He spent most of his time on Cody Eakin’s wing, but rotated through virtually everyone in Vegas’ bottom-six.

He slightly underperformed his expected-goal projection (8 vs. 9.2) last season, but not by enough to matter. Ditto his shooting percentage (8.2% vs. 9.7% career), which was a few ticks below even his rookie season.

It all comes down to health for Tuch. He’s started the last two seasons on the injured reserve but bounced back in 2018-19 with a 20-goal, 54-point campaign that earned him a seven-year extension. 

If he’s healthy in 2020-21, between Tuch, Reilly Smith and Mark Stone, Vegas will have arguably the deepest and most talented group of right wingers in the league.

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Vegas Golden Knights center Cody Glass (9) celebrates a goal during the third period of a game against the Montreal Canadiens at T-Mobile Arena Thursday, Oct. 31, 2019.

Cody Glass

Like Tuch, the improvement from Glass figures to come from health but also from opportunity. Glass’ rookie year didn’t go as he hoped, playing in 39 games and just twice after Jan. 4. He did not go to the Edmonton bubble for the playoffs, although signs point to him being ready for training camp.

He’s also in line to be the No. 2 center behind William Karlsson. A result of Vegas’ cap maneuvering this offseason was gutting of center depth, losing both Paul Stastny and Nick Cousins. Karlsson will be the top center, but after him it’s a battle among Glass, Chandler Stephenson, Nicolas Roy and Tomas Nosek. If Glass turns into the player the Golden Knights believe he will, that’s a battle he should win handily.

Glass, 21, is still the top young player in the Golden Knights organization. He thrived last year in limited time between Stone and Max Pacioretty, but struggled when he moved down the lineup. Putting him between Stone and Pacioretty, or even Smith and Jonathan Marchessault, could help him take the next step from top prospect to top-line center.

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Brayden McNabb

Brayden McNabb

It’s going to be a lot of fun to see what Pietrangelo does for the Vegas defense, and McNabb might be the biggest beneficiary. If McNabb retains his spot as the top shutdown option on the left side, putting him with Pietrangelo would be like seeing what he did the last three seasons with Schmidt but on hyperdrive.

At his best, McNabb is not much of an offensive threat. But the Golden Knights have never asked him to be. Every night he is assigned to opponents’ best lines, while also contributing on the top penalty-killing unit.

He’s played that role admirably, mostly alongside Schmidt. While Schmidt was a key factor in Vegas’ past success, Pietrangelo is the kind of defenseman the Golden Knights have never had: one who plays in every situation and does so at an elite level. Whoever he’s paired with is going to be playing next to a bona fide, Norris-caliber defenseman.

Right now that looks like McNabb. Alec Martinez and Shea Theodore were terrific together, and the organization has hinted at keeping them together. McNabb and Pietrangelo together project as one of the better defensive pairs in the league, both at even strength and on the penalty kill.

DECLINE

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Vegas Golden Knights right wing Reilly Smith (19) carries the puck with Arizona Coyotes defenseman Kevin Connauton (44) in pursuit during a game at T-Mobile Arena Thursday, April 4, 2019.

Reilly Smith

We’ll start with the caveat that this “decline” is less about production and more about goal-scoring. Smith had a career season last year, with a personal-best 27 goals, and 54 points that were on pace to be another personal-high had the season been played to completion. He was set to clear 30 goals and with just five power-play points, he dominated at 5-on-5 in ways he never had.

It wasn’t because he was shooting more. In fact, Smith took 266 shot attempts this season, the second-fewest in a full season in his career. What happened was more were going in the net and doing so at an unsustainable rate. He registered a 16.0 shot percentage, nearly 4 points higher than his career average. His shot attempts also totaled just 21.0 expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick, meaning he outperformed his numbers by six goals.

Individual expected goals is a good barometer of where a player should be over the long haul. If he generates more high-quality chances, he’s going to score more. Actual goals and expected goals will deviate slightly, but large discrepancies should be viewed as outliers. Only Pacioretty (who nearly doubled Smith’s shot total) had a greater difference between his actual goals and expected, and every other regular on the team had a goals total within three of their expected-goals figure.

This isn’t to say Smith won’t continue to be productive. He averages 0.79 points per game as a Golden Knight, or about 65 points per 82 games. That was about his pace in 2019-20, but with a heavy dose of goals and fewer assists. Smith still figures to rack up a point total in the 50s or 60s next year, but expecting a 30-goal pace again is probably unrealistic.

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Vegas Golden Knights center Chandler Stephenson (20) warms up before a game against the Los Angeles Kings at T-Mobile Arena Thursday, Jan. 9, 2020.

Chandler Stephenson

Stephenson was exactly what the Golden Knights needed when they acquired him two months into last season. They envisioned him as a depth piece to add to the bottom six, but instead watched as he played the best hockey of his life and became the most productive center for Stone and Pacioretty. Whether that continues is another story.

From the time the Golden Knights acquired Stephenson, he played at a star level: 22 points in 41 games, yes, but with a Goals Above Replacement number (12.1, according to Evolving Hockey) that led the team on a per-game basis. He was, for large stretches at a time, Vegas’ best and most-reliable center.

He never played like that in Washington, where after 168 games we had a good idea of what Stephenson was. He played on the fourth line and had just 33 points in five years. To drive the point home, he spent 58 total 5-on-5 minutes with Alex Ovechkin in his entire tenure with the Capitals.

Maybe the Golden Knights’ system helped unlock Stephenson, and he remains a top-six forward. It certainly happened with Karlsson, a fourth-liner himself before the expansion draft. But it’s more likely Stephenson’s outlook for next season is somewhere in the middle of last season and his Capitals days. He’s not a fourth-liner anymore, but he’s probably not going to be one of Vegas’ best forwards either.

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