Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

With new coach, it’s anyone’s guess how UNLV will fare in this unpredictable season

2019 UNLV Opener Against Southern Utah

Steve Marcus

UNLV running back Charles Williams (8) runs for a touchdown against Southern Utah at Sam Boyd Stadium Saturday, Aug. 31, 2019.

There is no easy way to predict how many games the UNLV football team will win. Of course, that’s the narrative with any season in any sport, but it’s more pronounced this fall because of the coronavirus pandemic.

There’s a new UNLV coach in Marcus Arroyo, and with any new coach comes a massive level of uncertainty.

How will his offense look and feel? It’s intended to be high-flying like the one Arroyo previously coordinated at Oregon.

Will the defense be improved? It has to be better, right?

Who’s the quarterback? Incumbent Kenyon Oblad, senior Max Gilliam or TCU transfer Justin Rogers have earned various levels of praise during training camp.

Yet, much remains a mystery heading into Saturday’s opener at San Diego State. And the biggest cause of this mystery — the coronavirus pandemic — brings the simple truth when projecting the season: Nobody knows how it will end, or if it will end as scheduled. Also, nobody knows which players will be available on any given day.

Take the University of Houston, for example.

The Cougars had five games wiped out or rescheduled because of the virus, eventually playing their second game last week against BYU. And BYU’s schedule is a complete mess with canceled games against Utah, Michigan State, Arizona State and Missouri replaced with contests against Troy, Louisiana Tech and Texas-San Antonio.

College football went from being delayed until the spring to some conferences beginning play in early September as originally planned. The Mountain West settled on an eight-game slate for each of its 12 teams. UNLV has plenty of winnable games; outside of the Dec. 4 tilt against league power Boise State, there’s no reason to believe the Rebels won’t be competitive every Saturday.

Instead of a game-by-game analysis of how UNLV will fare — like it will beat UNR next weekend because there’s no way the program is dropping its inaugural game at Allegiant Stadium — let’s not waste the energy with fruitless projections.

COVID-19 is unpredictable, including at UNLV where an unknown number of players have reportedly tested positive in the past week. The university can’t comment on illness or injury of a specific player without the individual’s permission, per federal regulation. A majority of other schools also aren’t reporting specifics regarding COVID-19 numbers.

Games across college football will continue to be canceled, players won’t be available because they’ve contracted the illness and craziness will happen on the field each Saturday. The Miami Marlins made the playoffs in Major League Baseball’s coronavirus-shortened season, after all.

Don’t be surprised if UNLV also has a winning season, with an assist from the uncertainty. Here’s why:

Pandemic levels the playing field

Upsets are happening each Saturday as teams scramble to fill their depth charts. Some players are opting out of the season. Other players are getting injured or missing time on the virus list. Often, that means there’s no scholarship players to replace them.

Head coaches at Alabama, Florida, Purdue and Florida State have missed time because of contracting the virus.

It all adds up to some unexpected outcomes on game day, including: Coastal Carolina is undefeated, ranked in the top-25 and is not the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference as predicted; No. 5 Notre Dame almost lost to 1-win Louisville last week; defending national champion LSU lost at home to Mississippi State; and visiting Kansas State knocked off Oklahoma. No team is immune to be upset. No team is unable to pull off an upset. So, why not UNLV?

Little information on team

Outside of UNLV having 11 players on the field for the initial snap of the season, there are few concrete details on how the team will be aligned. We can assume the offense will operate like Oregon’s did when Arroyo was offensive coordinator there, although the Ducks players — led by now-Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert — were more celebrated. There’s a strategic advantage with little information known on the UNLV plan of attack, which could help level the playing field early in the season. The Scarlet and Gray are a 15-point betting underdog to San Diego State, which is way too high considering neither team had the luxury of a traditional training camp because of the pandemic. UNLV also didn’t have spring practice. The element of surprise, at least early in the season, could help UNLV hang around in games longer than expected.

The run game

Arroyo is touted for his work with quarterbacks, and the program’s signal callers should be significantly improved under his tutelage. But the Rebels biggest strength on either side of the ball is its running game, led by fifth-year senior Charles Williams. Williams, who rushed for 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2019, is arguably the league’s best rusher. And the offensive line is equally experienced, as starters Matt Brayton, Jaron Caldwell and Julio Garcia (he’ll be a pro) are each fifth-year seniors. Junior Justice Oluwaseun at right tackle has started 18 games over his initial two seasons. Those kinds of reps are a luxury and give UNLV a distinct advantage. Don’t be surprised when a motivated Williams — he’s trying to make a splash to reach the NFL — continues to amass big yardage. Plus, controlling the clock with the run game keeps UNLV’s unproven defense on the sideline.

New coach, new message

Players and coaches are notorious for speaking positively about an upcoming season at the end of training camp. After all, you’ll never find someone who says their team will be lucky to win a game or two. With a new coach, the feeling seems to be intensified for UNLV, which finished 4-8 last season and left a few wins on the table. They lost 20-17 to San Diego State, for instance. A few alterations from a new coaching staff coming in with fresh eyes could be the difference. Williams says there is a new focus on being detail-oriented in all aspects of the game, which could limit the self-inflicted mistakes. “UNLV will not beat UNLV this year,” he said.

What to make of the defense

UNLV surrendered an average of 33 points per game in 2019. That earned them a rank of 108th nationally out of 130 programs in points allowed. UNLV’s defensive line only registered 12 sacks the entire season. By comparison, the University of Pittsburgh has 29 sacks in 2020 through six games. But the defensive line could be the UNLV program’s most improved unit, highlighted by defensive end Adam Plant, a transfer from TCU and Bishop Gorman grad whom Arroyo praised this week. By no means is the defense a strength, but it has some strong pieces, especially at linebacker where senior Farrell Hester had 70 tackles last season. In the secondary, senior Aaron Lewis has emerged as the leader in camp.