Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Trip to New England shapes up as vital for Las Vegas Raiders’ long-term goals

History indicates a 3-0 start is a precursor to the playoffs

0921_sun_RaidersSaints2

Steve Marcus

Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (28) finds a hole in the New Orleans Saints defense during he second half of the Raiders’ first home game at Allegiant Stadium Monday, Sept. 21, 2020.

Paul Guenther shared several hundred words with media during his weekly Zoom news conference, but the first two might have been the most telling.

As the Raiders defensive coordinator settled into his chair at the team’s Henderson headquarters, he immediately captured the general theme of Las Vegas’ trip to take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Sunday morning.

“Big week,” Guenther announced.

So simple, yet so sincere.

By starting the season with wins in each of their first two games, the Raiders have raised the stakes for their first year in Las Vegas.

There’s a case to be made that tomorrow’s game looms as one of the largest of Jon Gruden’s second tenure as Raiders’ coach, at least from a playoff perspective. Las Vegas at New England is the most important week 3 game in terms of postseason implications, according to Football Outsiders' metrics, as there’s a 24 percent swing in the Raiders’ chances to make the playoffs between winning and losing.

If they pull a second straight upset, the Raiders will sit at 63 percent to make the playoffs. If they fall short, they’ll be at only 39 percent.

It’s relatively rare for teams that start 3-0 to miss the playoffs, as their conversion rate sat at 75 percent from 1990-2019. It’s more of a coin flip at 2-1 with 53 percent of teams advancing to the postseason.

The NFL is expanding its postseason by one team in each conference this year, meaning a hot start is even more likely to translate into a playoff berth. After coming up two games short last season before bidding adieu to Oakland, the Raiders have consistently maintained that anything less than their first playoff appearance since 2016 would be a disappointment this year.

That could explain why the celebration after the Monday Night Football win over the New Orleans Saints was somewhat muted and short-lived. Quarterback Derek Carr made sure it was that way.

“There’s definitely a confidence in our team but it really doesn’t mean anything,” Carr said. “As I’ll say all year, it doesn’t mean anything until we win our next one.”

Carr has been even fierier than normal during the portions of practice open to media this week. He delivered a speech to teammates at the start of Thursday’s practice, and then slapped hands and provided more motivation on Friday shortly before the Raiders flew across the country.

Beating the Patriots means something to him, and not because of the long-term improvements to the Raiders’ playoff odds. Carr counts his only other trip to New England, in his third career start as a rookie almost exactly six years ago, as one of his toughest losses.

The Raiders drove down the field to potentially tie the game in the final minutes but Carr threw an interception off of a deflected pass at the 12-yard line with 59 seconds remaining, securing victory for the Patriots.

“It’s not something where I’m like, ‘I’ve got to get back at them,’” Carr said. “It’s two different teams and I’m not going to go into it like that, but to say it hasn’t motivated me throughout my career would be a lie.”

Carr lost one other time to the Patriots, a 33-8 setback in 2017, to experience for himself what’s been a long run of suffering in the series for Raiders’ fans. The Raiders haven’t defeated the Patriots since 2002, a few months after the latter won their first Super Bowl by virtue of the Tuck Rule game ruling and established themselves as the AFC’s measuring stick.

The Patriots have been the conference’s Super Bowl representative in five of the last 10 seasons, and in each of the years they didn’t reach the final game, the team that did defeated them at some point of the season.

Going back 19 years, only twice has a non-New England AFC team reached the Super Bowl without first knocking off the Patriots — the 2005 and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers.

Put simply, it’s a rite of passage for a championship contender to prove it by beating the Patriots. And the Raiders fancy themselves a championship contender.

“Any time you step in a stadium like that, it does bring back memories,” said Gruden, who’s 0-2 lifetime coaching at Gillette Stadium between the Tuck Rule game and a 28-0 loss as coach of the Buccaneers in 2005. “Some of the memories aren’t great but we’re excited to play the Patriots and see what we can get done in a short week. They’re a heck of a team.”

Gruden could save the “heck of a team” phrase to describe almost every upcoming Raiders’ opponent and not be lying. The strength of Las Vegas’ schedule is another reason why the Patriots game sets up as crucial.

The Raiders are currently underdogs in each of their next six games, including against the Patriots. They’re only favored in three more games all season, with one pick’em, to show just how difficult the road ahead of them shapes up.

Against this schedule, Las Vegas could play at its peak every week and still drop some games. Any cushion looks essential to its playoff hopes.

“It’s nice to go out and be 2-0,” Carr said. “It’s nice to go out against the Saints and get a win. It feels good but, like I told the guys after the (Saints’) game, our job is not done.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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