John Locher / AP
People take pictures of Lake Mead near Hoover Dam at the Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Friday, Aug. 13, 2021, in Arizona. The bathtub ring of light minerals shows the high water mark of the reservoir which has fallen to record lows.
Monday, Dec. 13, 2021 | 2 a.m.
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November brought unusually warm temperatures in Las Vegas and elsewhere in the Mountain West, which made for some lovely fall days. But not for our water supply.
Those warm temperatures that made for shirt-sleeve conditions in Las Vegas and much of the Southwest were murder on the snowpack that feeds the region’s rivers.
In an example of how climate change is threatening the viability of the West, the region emerged from November with lower-than-average snowpack in every one of its river basins, particularly in the Southwest. A daily map from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed last week that of the 53 places where it measures snowpack in Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah and Nevada, 40 were at 50% of normal or below. Only one, in Southwest New Mexico, was at the normal level. The snowpack was especially sparse in Southern Nevada and Southern Utah, where a large swath was at 7% of normal or less.
In another measurement, the National Weather Service reported high-elevation snowfall lagging 10 to 20 inches below normal last month. “November 2021 really put the ‘no’ in snow, with a majority of the country seeing below average snowfall last month,” the NWS Weather Prediction Center tweeted.
The good news is that it’s still early in the winter, and the snowpack could recover by the time of the spring meltoff that feeds regional sources of drinking water, like the Colorado River. But getting to normal would mean that we’d need above-average snowfall this winter and early next year, and unfortunately the forecast isn’t calling for a wet winter, at least in the Southwest.
The current La Niña weather pattern is likely to produce below-average snowfall in the Southwest and above-average accumulations in the Northwest, if it holds true to its historic nature. Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center is predicting above-average temperatures for Utah, Colorado and to the south, as reported by The Washington Post.
In other words, forecasters say we’ll be getting less snow, and what we have will melt more quickly than usual.
This is a deeply worrisome outlook. When snow covers the ground, it reflects sunlight and reduces melting, creating conditions in which snowpack can build up. When snow falls on bare ground, which absorbs heat from the sun, it melts quickly and is absorbed by the soil. As a result, there’s less of it to run off during the spring melt that charges streams, rivers and aquifers.
For the Colorado River basin, this is bad news piled on top of bad news. Lakes Mead and Powell are already at drastically low levels, and a weak runoff next spring would only compound the problem. And what a problem it is: This year marked the first-ever water shortage declaration at Lake Mead, which will result in cuts to the allocations received by Nevada, Arizona and Mexico starting in 2022.
The situation adds a degree of urgency to the Colorado River Water Users Association meeting scheduled for Tuesday through Thursday in Las Vegas, where about 1,000 regional, state and local officials, Native American tribal leaders, water officials and others will gather to discuss conservation and water policy changes.
The shortages we’re facing now have been decades in the making, so no one can claim they didn’t see the crisis coming.
Nevada has taken responsible steps to address the growing emergency. Our state adopted conservation measures that significantly reduced our water usage, such as primarily recycling our wastewater and paying incentives for property owners to convert grass turf to low-impact desert landscaping. Nevada remains an innovator on this front too, as shown by the passage of a state law banning purely ornamental turf and our agreement to help fund a Southern California water treatment operation that will reduce that region’s draw on Lake Mead and therefore protect our water supply.
But too many states have taken a business-as-usual approach even while watching the situation deteriorate before their own eyes.
Now, drastic action is needed. While next week’s conference offers an opportunity for progress, we’ll reiterate our call for national leaders to take action through the formation of a presidential commission, a special congressional commission or a similar panel to address Western water issues.
Although temperatures dipped last week and parts of the Southwest got rain and snow, the sparse snowpack in November and the winter weather forecast show that we can’t count on Mother Nature to save us.
Speaking of which, here’s another worrisome factoid. While this won’t directly affect the Colorado River, Denver did not receive any snowfall this fall until Friday. It was the latest date of the first snowfall in the city since climate record keeping began there in 1882. The previous record was Nov. 21.
What’s happening in Denver, unfortunately, is playing out across the Southwest and through much of the country. Although the weekend forecast called for a major snowstorm in the Sierras, a surge of warmth set records late last week in Texas and elsewhere in the South, and another surge was expected to set record highs across the Southern Plains this week. Also last week, a heat wave brought record-high temperatures in Montana, Wyoming, Washington and North Dakota.
Meanwhile, high temperatures and a lack of snowfall are extending the fire season well beyond normal in Colorado.
In the Colorado River basin and elsewhere, the effects of climate change are showing themselves right before our eyes. It’s a loud and clear call for action.
